Open de Madrid

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Padraig Harrington to win 8/1 @ BetandWin
Harrington has an excellent record in Spain - three of his five European Tour wins have been in this country and two have been on this course. On his only other visit to Club de Campo, he finished 25th last year when defending champion. He did open with a 63 though! He played well in the Cisco Matchplay last week, but suffered from the enormous penalty of not being seeded and so having to play on Thursday and won his last strokeplay event, the Dunhill Links Championship. Not really a player to back win-only, but at these odds there is little option and on this course, he has a better chance than most weeks of believing he can close out the event.

Adam Scott to win 20/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
No course form and in rather erratic form at the moment - two missed cuts and a win in his last six events, but  - but he is easily the best player in this field bar Harrington and Goosen. He finished 3rd behind Harrington in his only previous start in Spain, the 2001 Volvo Masters, and a similar result would be widely expected.

Rafel Cabrera to win 200/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Going to side with a player who has played only one European Tour event, but in doing so tied the Tour record for the lowest finish by an amateur. Cabrera did have a local advantage - he was still going to school in Las Palmas - when the Spanish Open came to Gran Canaria earlier this year, but his performance was particularly admirable as he was paired with Sergio Garcia in the final group in the last round. He would finished 2nd, but for bogeys on the very difficult 17th and 18th holes. A runner-up in last year's British Boys Championship, he has been referred to as the 'next Sergio Garcia' and looks a much better player than a 200/1 shot. His goal in the Spanish Open was to finish in the top-15. He has proved he is good enough to repeat the feat this week.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Gary Evans to beat Nick Dougherty -116 @ Gamebookers
Gary Evans to beat Simon Dyson -111 @ BetandWin
Padraig Harrington to beat Retief Goosen +100 @ Carib
Anders Hansen to beat Carlos Rodiles -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Adam Scott to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -120 @ Bet365

Mid-point update:

Evans/Dougherty WON by 2
Evans/Dyson Trails by 2
Harrington/Goosen Leads by 4
Hansen/Rodiles Leads by 6
Scott/Jimenez Leads by 7

Harrington 2nd
Scott 4th
Cabrera mc

Good position at the cut and while only one of the matches is decided at the cut, there are healthy leads in three of those still remaining. Even a good position in the outrights with Harrington and Scott within two shots of a leader who has never won on Tour. No joy from the young Cabrera though ... he played like a 200/1 shot on Thursday!

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-1; +4.34 units

Evans/Dyson LOST by 2
Harrington/Goosen Tied (Push)
Hansen/Rodiles WON by 13
Scott/Jimenez WON by 7

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Harrington 7th
Scott 2nd

What a frustrating event! Entered the final day with all the matchups ahead and Harrington/Scott sitting 1st-2nd. Harrington just couldn't find his game, but at least it looked like Scott would win ... he had a one-shot lead with two holes to play. Not to be. He left a 5-foot putt short in the 17th and similarly came up short on the final hole to finish a shot behind Tinning. Sheez!