Volvo Masters

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to win 16/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Tremendous record on this course - he has never finished outside top-30 in nine visits since 1990 and won this event in 1993. His best days on this course, like his game in general, is behind him now, but his performances since the Ryder Cup have been very impressive, as was his form for four weeks in May, and a return to the scene of the 1997 Ryder Cup can only help Monty. Did consider the much bigger odds (40/1) on Lawrie instead, but who knows how he will react to his final hole self-destruct last week? Monty and Valderrama: every chance that he will break his 2002 duck this week.

Adam Scott to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, UKBetting and Heathorns
Has not played this course, but should be well-suited as his all-round game is good, he is not just a big-hitter - he ranks 4th in the all-round category. Plus, he comes into the event in great form, having finished a close 2nd to Steen Tinning in the Madrid Open two weeks ago. That makes two starts in Spain and two top-3 finishes. Typically finishes strong in the end of the season and is very capable of winning this event and finishing in the top-5 in the Volvo Order of Merit.

Angel Cabrera to win 28/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet and Paddy Power
Hard to ignore a player who has finished 3rd and 6th in his last two starts and has finished in the top-25 in his last seven starts in Spain, including twice at the WGC-American Express Championship at Valderrama. Doesn't win enough in this company, but his putting has improved considerably this year and if he can keep it on the fairway, he should go close yet again.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Thomas Bjorn -137 @ BlueSq
Opposing Bjorn missed the cut in his last outing and has a poor record at Valderrama. In three previous visits he has finished over-par on every occasion. With a 12-3-0 record against Bjorn in the past year, this should be a straightforward win for Monty.

Angel Cabrera to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Sporting Odds and Sportingbet
Siding with another of the outright selections as a high finish is expected. Never sure with Poulter and given that he has yet to play the course and is coming off a wire-to-wire win, this could be a let-down week.

Sergio Garcia to beat Retief Goosen -110 @ Sporting Odds and Sportingbet
Goosen has a surprisingly poor record on this course. In five previous visits, he has finished 10th, 52nd, 51st, 25th and 35th while they have all been limited-field events and he has broken par in only five of twenty rounds here. With the added pressure of competing with Padraig Harrington for the Volvo Order of Merit title - they are even paired together in the 1st round - this could be a testing week for the South African. Expecting a much better performance from Garcia who was testing new clubs last week, has finished 7th and 5th on his previous two visits to Valderrama and won the Spanish Open earlier this year.

Paul McGinley to beat Carl Pettersson -120 @ Carib
Not really expecting a great week from McGinley and he has never played well on this course, just opposing Pettersson. The big Swede has never played this course and has finished 73rd, 54th (of 65), missed cut and missed cut in his last four events. Even McGinley with his Ryder Cup hangover has played better than that.

Eduardo Romero to beat Justin Rose -105 @ Five Dimes
Has never played on this course before, missed the cut last week when opposed and has been playing poorly since his father died. Rose remains a player to oppose until the end of the season and while Romero is unlikely to make it three top-10 finishes in ten visits to Valderrama, he should be consistent enough to beat the wilting Rose.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2; +1.05 units

Montgomerie/Bjorn WON by 12
Cabrera/Poulter WON by 7
Garcia/Goosen WON by 9
McGinley/Pettersson LOST by 8
Romero/Rose LOST by 5

Outrights: 2-1; +12.00 units

Montgomerie 1st (shared with Langer)
Scott 7th
Cabrera 4th

Controversial end to the 2002 European Tour season and at the end, thankful that Monty was cleared of moving the ball when addressing the ball on the 10th green and that the title was shared after darkness forced the playoff to be curtailed after two holes. I thought he moved the ball, but not complaining now! Could have been even better though - Cabrera had a seven-shot lead at one stage and had the winds not blown on the last three days, his lead would surely have been insurmountable. Still, controversy aside, a profitable end to another profitable European Tour season.