Wales Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Philip Price to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Virtually an automatic pick and thankful for Darren Clarke's entry to ensure a larger price than in the past two years. Clarke has shown that he is not a player to back when expected to win. Price is an honorary member of this course and lives just a stone's throw away. He has an excellent record in this event, having yet to shoot a round over-par on this course, and this is one event he would dearly love to win.

Barry Lane to win 47/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5)
The next two are form players and there is no better example of this than Barry Lane. He has been very consistent since finishing 2nd in the Benson & Hedges International in May, but has too often struggled in the final round. Ignoring the weather-hit Great North Open, he shot been over-par just 4 times in his last 29 Thursday-Saturday rounds, but in the same period has shot 6 of 9 Sunday rounds over-par. Might want to bail out on Saturday night, but he should be in contention at some stage this week.

Joachim Haeggman to win 50/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet or Paddy Power
Haeggman is another form player who does not close events particularly well, but he has been getting himself into position this year. Twice in the last five months, he has been the 1st round leader and secured back-to-back top-10 finishes in Ireland a month ago. In contention last week before falling back on Sunday, he looks too good a player at the moment to be these odds.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Barry Lane to beat Peter Baker -163 @ Sportingbet [4.5 units]
Complete mismatch! Baker has missed his last four cuts and missed the cut last year. No comparison to Lane.

Barry Lane to beat Andrew Coltart -118 @ Easybets
Coltart is not the player who made the Ryder Cup team three years ago. In the past year he has managed just one top-10 finish and his best in the last three months is a faltering 29th when in a good position until the last round of the Great North Open. He also missed the cut last year and won't be able to compete with Lane.

Philip Price to beat Warren Bennett -110 @ Victor Chandler
The early leader last week, Bennett is obviously in decent form, yet he has still to finish in the top-10 all season. A familiar story of poor final rounds if in contention. This will also be his sixth straight event and having played four rounds every time, he should be ready for break very soon. Could feature this week, but don't see him in the mix on Sunday alongside Price.

Philip Price to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposed Poulter profitable last week and see little reason to change strategy this week, particularly against my headline outright selection. This will be Poulter's seventh straight event and that is too many without a break. If he gets a fast start he could win this event, but otherwise he can be counted upon to finish a long way down the leaderboard. Price's 13-2 head-to-head record against Poulter over the last 12 months is also compelling.

Alex Cejka to beat Sven Struver -111 @ BetandWin
Both have been missing cuts recently, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Cejka will perform better this week. Struver did finish 2nd in the Great North Open in June, but his previous top-10 finish had been in April 2001 when he also finished 2nd in the Portuguese Open. Cejka, for his part, had a spell on the Buy.com Tour earlier this year and has been playing in the bigger events than Struver since his return to Europe where he finished 6th in the Irish Open. This course should also suit Cejka's game for more. It is the scene of the 2009 Ryder Cup and demands good play from tee to green. Cejka ranks 17th in greens in regulation; Struver ranks 147th.

Mid-point update:

Lane/Baker WON by 5
Lane/Coltart WON by 8
Price/Bennett WON by 2
Price/Poulter Trails by 3
Cejka/Struver LOST by 14

Price 65th
Lane 18th
Haeggman 42nd

I hate rain-affected tournaments. Should be lucky enough to come out even on the tournament after a good performance on the matchups, but it is rather a lottery this way. Maybe Lane can put two good rounds together on Sunday to make the top-5 place? Or maybe I can remember why I passed over Paul Lawrie @ 20/1 when he was 2nd in my ratings for this tournament, ahead of Price?

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2; +4.17 units

Price/Poulter LOST by 13

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Price 66th
Lane 24th
Haeggman 24th

Break-even event as the outrights were never really in contention. Still can't remember why I didn't pick Paul Lawrie!