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BMW International Open
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Ernie Els to win 5/1 @ SkyBet
and
Victor
Chandler
I his own words, "the
way I feel at the moment I’m really looking forward to the rest of this
season. My game feels in great shape. I need to hole a few more putts,
but that will come; the putting stroke is fine." Els finished 17th in
the NEC Invitational last week, but ranked 59th in putting so there are
no problems with the rest of his game and as long as his putting stroke
is good, then he could lap this field. He virtually did that when
winning the Scottish Open last month. There are grounds for avoiding
such a short-priced player after playing in the U.S. in the previous
week, but the last four winners of this event had done just the same.
He finished 5th on his last visit in 2000 and that should really be his
worst-case finish against this field.
Paul Casey to win 14/1 e.w. @ Bet365, SkyBet,
BetInternet,
Victor
Chandler and
Paddy Power
Casey finished alongside Els in 17th place last week and should not be
too far behind him this week unless the Big Easy's putter gets hot.
Apart from the British Open, his worst finish in Europe this season has
been 13th and he has won twice already in 2003. With 7th place finishes
in this event in each of the last two years and confidence not something
that he lacks, Casey looks the best of the rest.
Bernhard Langer to win 33/1 e.w. @
Stan James
In terms of course form - or even form in Germany as a whole - no-one
can match Langer. In the last twelve stagings of this event (all but
three on this course), he has finished no lower than 16th on every
occasions and while he has not won this title, he finished 2nd on four
occasions, including twice in the last three years. This is the only
tournament in Germany that Langer has not yet won and there will be no
shortage of determination from the European Ryder Cup captain this week.
He has returned to form in the last couple of months and was
particularly impressive at the weekend when climbing to 11th at the NEC
Invitational.
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Alex Cejka to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @
BetandWin
[3 units]
Cejka is certainly the most in-form German player in this field. In the
past month he has been 2nd in the B.C. Open and 4th in the PGA
Championship and shot 61 in the last round he played in a German event.
His record on this course is fairly average, but he should post a
career-best this week.
Bradley Dredge to beat Robert Karlsson -118 @
Expekt
Karlsson is not a very consistent player. He won this event in 1997 and
finished 9th in 1999, but has struggled here otherwise. Similarly, he
had two great weeks in July, but struggled beforehand and has struggled
since. Dredge is not the most consistent of players, but he does grind
out the top-10 finishes on a regular basis.
Nick Faldo to beat Stephen Gallacher -112 @ Five
Dimes
It's all in their head-to-head record: in European Tour events, Faldo
leads 8-0-0 over the past year and he has the better record on this
course. Gallacher has played well in stages this year, but Faldo is
still the better player an believes he can still play his way onto
Langer's Ryder Cup team next year.
(Also available at BetandWin)
2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Peter Hedblom to beat Raphael Jacquelin -125 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Ernie Els to beat Thomas Bjorn -150 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Anders Hansen to beat David Howell -115 @ Five
Dimes
2nd round update: 1-2-0; -3.23 units
Hedblom/Jacquelin WON by 3
Els/Bjorn LOST by 1
Hansen/Howell LOST by 4
Mid-point update:
Cejka/Olazabal WON by 11
Dredge/Karlsson LOST by 15
Faldo/Gallacher LOST by 12
Els 39th
Casey 7th
Langer 39th
Not a very promising situation at the cut. All three matchups are decided after 36 holes and only one is a winner, while Els gave up a four-shot lead over Bjorn with seven holes to play in the 2nd round play. Casey is in contention, but now need a very good weekend from the Englishman.
3rd round play (1.5 units):
Bernhard Langer to beat Andrew Coltart -125 @ Five Dimes
3rd round update: 0-1-0; -1.88 units
Langer/Coltart LOST by 7
Final update:
Matchups: 1-2-0; -0.45 units
18-holes: 1-3-0; -5.11 units
Outrights: 1-2; -2.47 units
Els 17th
Casey 3rd
Langer 23rd
Needed Casey's eagle on the last hole to get him into a
tie with four others for 3rd place to get any return over the weekend
and limit the losses. Pleased to see Lee Westwood back to form, but
little else to cheer in this event.
