Benson and Hedges International Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power (have a bet refund offer; odds also at Five Dimes, Bet365, Victor Chandler)
The best player in the field and apart from 2001, it has only been the best players who have won this event. Top-15 in the Masters and with five top-5 finishes already this season, including two from two starts on the European Tour, there is every reason to expect a very high finish from the South African. He has finished in the top-20 in the last two years, but he should finish higher this year.

Bradley Dredge to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet (six places)
Certainly one of the most in-form players playing this week. He virtually lapped the field when winning the Madeira Island Open in March and followed that with 2nd in the Portuguese Open. It is surprising that he played in a European Pro Tour event last week, but he won it with ease and playing at St. Pierre was probably good preparation for the Belfry anyway. Capable of winning in this company, though SkyBet's six places on offer is very welcome.

Paul Lawrie to win 40/1 e.w. available generally (including Paddy Power & their bet refund offer)
Has yet to fully shake off his 'good bad weather player' tag, but showed at the end of last year and on the PGA Tour last month that he is a good player in good weather as well. Like Goosen, he finished top-15 in the Masters and did the same at the BellSouth Classic the week before. He has already finished runner-up on the Tour this year (in a six-man playoff in the Dunhill Championship) and should go close this week. The fact that the weather forecast is for rain on three of the four days should help his cause.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Nick Faldo to beat Brian Davis -111 @ BetandWin
Davis has been in sparking form with top-5 finishes in his last three events, but this is the first big event on the European Tour this season and the first time that it has come to England where he has a poor record. Siding with the hard-working Faldo who is still competitive and should match his 11th place finish of last year. He also has a 7-1-1 h2h record against Davis in the past year.

Paul Lawrie to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @ BetInternet
Olazabal won this event in 2000 on this course, but this is a course that requires excellent driving and I can't see him achieving that for four days. Lawrie is too consistent for Olazabal and has finished ahead of him in both years since Olly's win.

Eduardo Romero to beat Nick O'Hern -111 @ BetandWin
Romero struggled on the PGA Tour earlier this year and this is his first time in Europe this year where he is far more likely to be competitive. He has a good record on this course and against O'Hern (9-2-0 h2h over the past year) who should be rusty as he is making his first start since Australia.

Greg Owen to beat Charl Schwartzel -111 @ Paddy Power
Owen is playing well - he should have won the Portuguese Open three weeks ago - and his game is well-suited to the Belfry. In similar circumstances to Vale do Lobo he led this event for most of the week last year, but not at the end. Will side with him for a decent week here and beat the erratic Schwartzel who has yet to play this course.

Gary Evans to beat Simon Khan -111 @ William Hill and SIA
Evans has been quite a new player since he came so close to winning the British Open last year. Two top-10 finishes in his last three starts is enough evidence that his game is in shape and he should right a poor record on this course. Will still take that course experience over the none that Khan has. Evans has shown that he can compete in these big events; Khan has still to do so.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Santiago Luna to beat Jarrod Moseley -110 @ Five Dimes
Eduardo Romero to beat Stephen Leaney -115 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
Richard Green to beat Brian Davis +100 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +4.50 units

Luna/Moseley WON by 6
Romero/Leaney WON by 1
Green/Davis LOST by 5

Mid-point update:

Faldo/Davis LOST by 7
Lawrie/Olazabal WON by 12
Romero/O'Hern Leads by 3
Owen/Schwartzel LOST by 16
Evans/Khan LOST by 16

Goosen 59th
Dredge 13th
Lawrie 23rd

At least the losing position in the matchups has been covered by a close Romero win. Leaves the outrights with Dredge and Lawrie not too far from the place positions. Could yet make this a decent event.

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Paul Casey -135 @ Five Dimes
Stephen Leaney to beat Charl Schwartzel -112 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-1-0; -0.53 units

Montgomerie/Casey LOST by 6
Leaney/Schwartzel WON by 3

4th round plays:

Paul Lawrie to beat Paul Casey -107 @ Five Dimes
Soren Hansen to beat Nick O'Hern -127 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 1-0-1; +1.50 units

Lawrie/Casey WON by 2
Hansen/O'Hern TIED (Push)

Final update:

Matchups: 1-4-0; -5.17 units

Romero/O'Hern LOST by 8

18-holes: 4-2-1; +5.47 units

Outrights: 1-2; +3.75 units

Goosen 62nd
Dredge 14th
Lawrie 3rd

Very thankful to Paul Lawrie and his hole-in-one on the 7th hole today! It enabled him to get amongst the leaders and finish in the top-5 and dispel what looked for three days to be a 0-for-12 week in the outrights. Yet more disappointing matchup selections for this Tour, but at least they were covered by the 18-hole plays. Great event to watch, let's hope it returns to the Belfry next year with a new sponsor.