Benson and Hedges International Open
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Retief Goosen to win 12/1 e.w. @
Paddy Power (have a bet refund offer; odds
also at Five
Dimes, Bet365, Victor
Chandler)
The best player in the field and apart from 2001, it has only been the best
players who have won this event. Top-15 in the Masters and with five top-5
finishes already this season, including two from two starts on the European
Tour, there is every reason to expect a very high finish from the South African.
He has finished in the top-20 in the last two years, but he should finish higher
this year.
Bradley Dredge to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
(six places)
Certainly one of the most in-form players playing this week. He virtually lapped
the field when winning the Madeira Island Open in March and followed that with
2nd in the Portuguese Open. It is surprising that he played in a European Pro
Tour event last week, but he won it with ease and playing at St. Pierre was
probably good preparation for the Belfry anyway. Capable of winning in this
company, though SkyBet's six places on offer is very welcome.
Paul Lawrie to win 40/1 e.w. available generally (including Paddy
Power & their bet refund offer)
Has yet to fully shake off his 'good bad weather player' tag, but showed at the
end of last year and on the PGA Tour last month that he is a good player in good
weather as well. Like Goosen, he finished top-15 in the Masters and did the same
at the BellSouth Classic the week before. He has already finished runner-up on
the Tour this year (in a six-man playoff in the Dunhill Championship) and should
go close this week. The fact that the weather forecast is for rain on three of
the four days should help his cause.
Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Nick Faldo to beat Brian Davis -111 @
BetandWin
Davis has been in sparking form with top-5 finishes in his last three events,
but this is the first big event on the European Tour this season and the first
time that it has come to England where he has a poor record. Siding with the
hard-working Faldo who is still competitive and should match his 11th place
finish of last year. He also has a 7-1-1 h2h record against Davis in the past
year.
Paul Lawrie to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @
BetInternet
Olazabal won this event in 2000 on this course, but this is a course that
requires excellent driving and I can't see him achieving that for four days.
Lawrie is too consistent for Olazabal and has finished ahead of him in both
years since Olly's win.
Eduardo Romero to beat Nick O'Hern -111 @
BetandWin
Romero struggled on the PGA Tour earlier this year and this is his first time in
Europe this year where he is far more likely to be competitive. He has a good
record on this course and against O'Hern (9-2-0 h2h over the past year) who
should be rusty as he is making his first start since Australia.
Greg Owen to beat Charl Schwartzel -111 @
Paddy Power
Owen is playing well - he should have won the Portuguese Open three weeks ago -
and his game is well-suited to the Belfry. In similar circumstances to Vale do
Lobo he led this event for most of the week last year, but not at the end. Will
side with him for a decent week here and beat the erratic Schwartzel who has yet
to play this course.
Gary Evans to beat Simon Khan -111 @
William Hill and
SIA
Evans has been quite a new player since he came so close to winning the British
Open last year. Two top-10 finishes in his last three starts is enough evidence
that his game is in shape and he should right a poor record on this course. Will
still take that course experience over the none that Khan has. Evans has shown
that he can compete in these big events; Khan has still to do so.
No 1st round plays.
2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Santiago Luna to beat Jarrod Moseley -110 @ Five
Dimes
Eduardo Romero to beat Stephen Leaney -115 @ Five
Dimes [4.5 units]
Richard Green to beat Brian Davis +100 @ Five
Dimes
2nd round update: 2-1-0; +4.50 units
Luna/Moseley WON by 6
Romero/Leaney WON by 1
Green/Davis LOST by 5
Mid-point update:
Faldo/Davis LOST by 7
Lawrie/Olazabal WON by 12
Romero/O'Hern Leads by 3
Owen/Schwartzel LOST by 16
Evans/Khan LOST by 16
Goosen 59th
Dredge 13th
Lawrie 23rd
At least the losing position in the matchups has been covered by a close Romero win. Leaves the outrights with Dredge and Lawrie not too far from the place positions. Could yet make this a decent event.
3rd round plays (1.5 units):
Colin Montgomerie to beat Paul Casey -135 @ Five
Dimes
Stephen Leaney to beat Charl Schwartzel -112 @ Five
Dimes
3rd round update: 1-1-0; -0.53 units
Montgomerie/Casey LOST by 6
Leaney/Schwartzel WON by 3
4th round plays:
Paul Lawrie to beat Paul Casey -107 @ Five
Dimes
Soren Hansen to beat Nick O'Hern -127 @ Five
Dimes
4th round update: 1-0-1; +1.50 units
Lawrie/Casey WON by 2
Hansen/O'Hern TIED (Push)
Final update:
Matchups: 1-4-0; -5.17 units
Romero/O'Hern LOST by 8
18-holes: 4-2-1; +5.47 units
Outrights: 1-2; +3.75 units
Goosen 62nd
Dredge 14th
Lawrie 3rd
Very thankful to Paul Lawrie and his hole-in-one on the 7th hole today! It enabled him to get amongst the leaders and finish in the top-5 and dispel what looked for three days to be a 0-for-12 week in the outrights. Yet more disappointing matchup selections for this Tour, but at least they were covered by the 18-hole plays. Great event to watch, let's hope it returns to the Belfry next year with a new sponsor.