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The Open Championship
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Only one player (Tiger Woods, 2000) has won both the U.S. and British
Opens in the same year since Tom Watson in 1982. However, it had been
done once in every ten years before then, so maybe it is not so
preposterous. Royal St. George's is a very quirky course with blind
shots and drives that land in the middle of the fairway and bounce into
the rough. The patience of a U.S. Open champion will be required this
week. Winner of the last major or not, he is in the form of his life
with 11 top-10 finishes from 16 starts this year, plus he did finish
4th, 4th, 10th from 1997 to 1999 so he can plays links golf.
Darren Clarke to win 33/1 e.w. @
Easybets
and
BetInternet
Clarke was brought on links golf, so this does represent his best chance
of securing a major. He has finished 2nd (1997) and 3rd (2001) already
and could go better this year now that he has improved his putting. He
had been "putting like a blind man" according to his manager, Andrew
Chandler, so after the U.S. Open he spent a few days with the putting
guru, Harold Swash. Now he has a new putter and a new technique and he
has been rewarded with top-5 finishes in his last two events. This
course threw up a British winner in 1985 and Clarke looks the
best-placed to be one this time around.
Davis Love to win 40/1 e.w. @
Tote (6
places)
Large price, plus the extra place, for one of the favourites for the two
previous majors this year. He has been faced with a family crisis
following the suicide of his brother-in-law and
manager, Jeff Knight, in May who was under investigation from the FBI
for stealing as much as $1 million from accounts that he managed for
Love. But this family crisis has been reflected in his odds for this
event which have been steadily rising since May. But this price is too
high. One of the things that his late father taught him was calmness in
the eye of the storm. He displayed such a strength en route to winning
three times this season and it was just as evident when he finished 7th
in his first event after the family tragedy. In a new country and in an
event in which he has prospered in recent years – no worse than 21st
in the last six Opens – Love could be making new headlines next week.
Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Robert Allenby to beat Charles Howell -111 @
William Hill
Opposing Howell whose "full-power" game is ill-suited to links golf and
has not been able to reproduce his form of late 2002. Allenby is a good
wind player with a ball flight that he can control. He is playing much
better than Howell on the PGA Tour and his advantage is strengthened on
this course.
Bob Estes to beat Charles Howell -110 @ Bet365
Estes is another good wind player and has used it to good effect in
finishing in the top-25 in his last two British Opens. He is also
playing better than Howell, having recorded two top-3 finishes in
May/June and should feature in the top-25 again this year.
Chris DiMarco to beat Charles Howell -125 @
Sportingbet
and
Sporting Odds
Also siding with DiMarco against Howell as he is another who can control
his ball flight and has experience of playing in this event. He has
shown good form this year with seven top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour and
while he won't finish that high this week, he should make the cut to
ensure the matchup win.
Stewart Cink to beat Chad Campbell -116 @ Pinnacle
Opposing Campbell who also has no experience of links golf and in his
first attempt to play in the U.K., he shot 76-77 around Loch Lomond last
week to miss the cut by a very long way. He may have had a good season
on the PGA Tour, but links golf requires experience and that is
something that Cink has got. He has made the cut in four of five British
Opens.
Jerry Kelly to beat Chad Campbell -139 @
William Hill
Also siding with Kelly even though he was playing in the Greater
Milwaukee Open last week. His form is good - he was 3rd in the Western
Open two weeks ago and should have at least matched that finish last
week, but the pressure of being the home player was visibly straining
him. He has two year's experience in this event and finished 28th last
year. In this form, he could repeat that performance.
Peter Lonard to beat Nick O'Hern -111 @
BetandWin
Expecting Lonard to have a good week and he showed good form when
finishing 5th at Loch Lomond last week. That is anything but a links
course, but he can also point to a 14th place finish at Muirfield. In
fact, in four British Open starts, he has finished in the top-50 on each
occasion. Last week he finished ahead of O'Hern as he has done in all
three common European Tour events over the past year. This should be a
repeat.
Adding (1.5 units):
Sergio Garcia to beat Justin Rose -111 @
BetandWin
Garcia's season has been hindered by swing changes, but there are signs
that it is bearing fruit. He made his first in four events at the U.S.
Open where he finished 35th and he was right in contention when
finishing 4th at the Buick Classic the following week. He has finished
in the top-10 in the last two British Open's and is able to manage the
ball flight extremely well, which makes him ideal for links golf. Rose
has a lot to do in that department and while his missed cut in the
European Open was not a concern, his second missed cut in two weeks at
the Scottish Open on a course on which he had previously played well,
was certainly worrying. He had been widely tipped as a strong candidate
for this Open, but his preparations have been far from ideal.
Justin Leonard to beat Justin Rose -125 @
Expekt
(-135 @ Carib)
Also siding with Leonard against Rose. Leonard Open credentials are
excellent - he won at Royal Troon in 1997 and lost in the playoff to
Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. This year, he is playing even better
- he has won once (Honda Classic) and stormed to 2nd place with a final
round 61 at the Colonial. He is a strong candidate for this week's
event.
Colin Montgomerie to beat Bernhard Langer -110 @ BlueSq
These two shared the Volvo Masters title last November and while Monty
won the following week (TCL Classic) and has finished in the top-10
three times this season, Langer has secured just one top-20 finish since
that joint win. He has a decent record in this event, but looks too
out-of-form to be a contender.
Adding outright plays (1.5 units):
Gary Evans to win 'Top Great Britain & Ireland Player' 40/1 e.w.
@
Coral
Missed the 50/1 that had been available at Stan James, but this price
still represents good value for a player who has finished in the top-5
in the last two weeks against good quality fields and finished 5th at
Muirfield. He could be the reigning Open champion, but for a disastrous
lost ball on his penultimate hole. It could him a two-shot penalty and
he finished one shot out of the four-man playoff. He has, however,
maintained his form and although he did lose it in five poor tournaments
in May/June, he has shown in the last two weeks he is right back in
form. A large price for one who will relish the return of this event.
Sergio Garcia to win 'Top European Player' 9/2 @
BetInternet
Siding with the favourite in this market. As already highlighted, the
rewards to his swing changes has been becoming more visible and he
appears to be competitive on the PGA Tour again. He remains an excellent
ball-striker and plays well on links courses. He does struggle on the
slower greens found on European parkland courses. It was no surprise
that his first professional victory came in the 1999 Irish Open at
Druids Glen or that his victory in the British Amateur Championship was
at Muirfield (1998). This is a thin market with only 21 players and of
these, only the out-of-sorts Thomas Bjorn has equivalent links
credentials.
Peter Lonard to win 'Top Rest of the World Player' 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Another player who has already been highlighted as a good links and wind
player. He finished 14th last year and was impressive in finishing 5th
at Loch Lomond last week. He has established himself as one of the most
consistent players on the PGA Tour and he should be in the frame this
week. The hard, fast conditions should certainly suit experienced links
players, particularly Australians, of whom there were two in last year's
playoff. Els should win this category, but Lonard should not be too far
behind.
Scott Verplank to win 'Top U.S. Player' 50/1 e.w. @
William Hill
With 28/1 the best price for Verplank in the 'w/o Woods' category (the
40/1 at Stan James has now gone), the 50/1 with Woods seems much better
value. Tiger has already displayed his reservations the course, arguing
that luck will be a big factor this week, something that he also shares
with Jack Nicklaus, so he looks far from dominant this week and Verplank
could certainly finish ahead of the unhappy favourite. This will be a
course for grinders who have the patience to deal with the hard, fast
conditions to alien to most PGA Tour courses. Verplank is in this
category and while he can claim three decent finishes in the last four
Opens, he is also in very good form. He has finished in the top-20 in
eight of his last eleven starts, should have won the HP Classic of New
Orleans and finished in the top-10 of the Players Championship, the
Masters and the U.S. Open. A repeat could see him win this category with
or without Tiger Woods.
Prop plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Winning score greater than 273 +175 @
Expekt
Players to miss the cut:
Markus Bier -182 @
BetandWin
[3 units]
Chad Campbell +110 @
Olympic
[4.5 units]
Michael Campbell -170 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Brian Davis +100 @
Centrebet
Anders Hansen +100 @
Expekt
Soren Hansen +105 @
Expekt
Soren Kjeldsen +105 @
Expekt
Sandy Lyle -175 @ Victor
Chandler [3 units]
Paul McGinley +130 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Lee Westwood +125 @ Victor
Chandler [3 units]
Ian Woosnam +100 @
Sporting Odds
[3 units]
Adding matchup play (1.5 units):
Eduardo Romero to beat Greg Owen -118 @ Five
Dimes
Owen has struggled since winning the British Masters - he has missed two
cuts and finished 61st on the other occasion. Not so for Romero, whose
form has been impressive since the Volvo PGA Championship in May and
that includes a top-5 finish two weeks ago. With a better history on
links courses, the veteran should be a strong favourite.
Adding prop (1.5 units):
Cut score to be greater than 147 +160 @ BetandWin
No 1st round plays.
Mid-point update:
Allenby/Howell Trails by 1
Estes/Howell Trails by 1
DiMarco/Howell LOST by 7
Cink/Campbell Trails by 5
Kelly/Campbell LOST (Kelly withdrew)
Lonard/O'Hern WON by 6
Garcia/Rose WON by 15
Leonard/Rose WON by 8
Montgomerie/Langer LOST (Monty withdrew)
Romero/Owen WON by 5
Brier LOST (28th)
Campbell, C LOST (11th)
Campbell, M LOST (59th)
Davis LOST (59th)
Hansen, A WON (76th)
Hansen, S WON (107th)
Kjeldsen WON (84th)
Lyle WON (84th)
McGinley LOST (59th)
Westwood WON (76th)
Woosnam LOST (35th)
Cut score greater than 147 WON (150)
Furyk mc
Clarke 59th
Love 1st
Evans 2nd
Garcia 2nd
Lonard 5th
Verplank mc
Great position in the outrights with very health positions in four markets. Not so good with the cut props, though they would have been very profitable but for three of them finishing on the cut line. The forecast for wind has proved to be correct and one scoring prop has won and the other will surely also win. Has been a great spectacle so far and if Davis Love can bounce off the out-of-bounds markers back into play, then surely this is his week. I hope so!
3rd round plays (3 units):
Chad Campbell to beat John Rollins -122 @ Five
Dimes
Bob Estes to beat Stewart Cink -120 @
Sirbet
Craig Parry to beat Matthew Goggin -120 @ Five
Dimes
3rd round update: 1-2-0; -4.20 units
Campbell/Rollins WON by 6
Estes/Cink LOST by 1
Parry/Goggin LOST by 6
4th round plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Robert Allenby to beat Stephen Leaney -135 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Rich Beem to beat Ian Woosnam -118 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
S.K. Ho to beat Mark Foster -117 @ Five
Dimes
4th round update: 1-2-0; -2.81 units
Allenby/Leaney LOST by 2
Beem/Woosnam WON by 6
Ho/Foster LOST by 3
Final update:
Matchups: 6-4-0; +1.65 units
Allenby/Howell WON by 4
Estes/Howell WON by 5
Cink/Campbell LOST by 4
Props: 7-6 ;-6.14 units
Winning score greater than 273 WON (283)
18-holes: 2-4-0; -7.01 units
Outrights: 2-5; +6.00 units
Clarke 59th
Love 4th
Evans 3rd
Garcia 3rd
Lonard 21st
There is always a lot of drama at the British Open! Bjorn should have won, Love should have been the one taking advantage and instead we have one of the biggest shock winners in recent Open history. Small loss on the event, but came very close in a number of the outright markets to finding another reason for making it a week to remember.
