Deutsche Bank - SAP Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Goosen looked disinterested last week after his slow start and it is something of which he is certainly guilty, but he would not be the two-time European Order of Merit winner if he was not one of the best players in Europe. He has had five top-5 finishes this year already and has finished ahead of Tiger on many occasions; he will not be fazed by him. With good course form from 1996-2000 when he was a lesser player, this could be a very different week to last week from the South African. 22/1 is available, but the six-place offer at SkyBet is tempting.

Paul Lawrie to finish in the top-six 6/1 @ SkyBet
Woods has been beaten in Europe before and he may be again this week, but the odds are very much in favour of a place-only finish for the last two selections. Lawrie has shown good form in his last three events, finishing 3rd last week and in the top-15 in the BellSouth Classic and the Masters. With top-15 finishes on the last two occasions that this event has played at Gut Kaden, it all points to a solid week from the Scot. He really shouldn't be too far from the leaderboard this week and although 7/1 is available with Five Dimes, the extra place with SkyBet is worth the reduction in price.

Bradley Dredge to finish in the top-six 8/1 @ SkyBet
It is less clear-cut that the reduction in price relative to Five Dimes (10/1) for the extra place is worth it, but he is rather less experienced than Lawrie in being in contention in such marquee events. He missed the cut in 1998 and 2000, but he is a very different player now and carried his excellent form in the Portuguese events into the Benson & Hedges event last week. He stumbled a little over the weekend, but could have finished much higher and can certainly compete with the best of the European Tour.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Richard Green to beat Andrew Coltart -111 @ Ladbrokes and SIA
Opposing Coltart who did manage to break his run of five consecutive missed cuts when he played in the Madeira Island Open, but he has continued to struggle since with just one round in the 60s in his last three events. Green has six of his last ten rounds in the 60s and should bounce back from a missed cut last week.

Peter O'Malley to beat Andrew Coltart -150 @ Pinnacle
O'Malley also missed the cut last week after a poor 2nd round in difficult conditions. He had just finished in the top-10 in the Italian Open the previous week in his first start in Europe this season (he had been the leader at the cut), so his current form is good and his course form is also much better. Bigger price, but a good chance to oppose a player out of form.

Paul Lawrie to beat Brian Davis -110 @ Bet365 and BlueSq
Difficult to oppose Davis at the moment as he has finished in the top-10 in each of his last four events, but will do so with an outright selection in comparable form and a good player in big events. Lawrie also has the better course form and while this course was last used in 2000, he also leads Davis 5-1-0 h2h in events in Germany since Gut Kaden was last used.

Brian Davis to beat Charl Schwartzel -125 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Much happier to side with Davis at the moment and will gladly do so in opposing Schwartzel again. Did so last week with Owen, but he missed the cut and can't see that happening to Davis and making the weekend should be enough. In the last two weekends, Schwartzel has shot rounds of 78-71-80-80! He's never the played the course or even in Germany, so an easy option with the Englishman.

Bradley Dredge to beat Lee Westwood -141 @ Pinnacle
Westwood won the last two times that this course was used, but that was an age ago. Westwood has made his last two cuts, but he is very long way from the player that won on this course and even in his latest renaissance, he has failed to break par in his last five rounds. Will oppose another out-of-form player with an outright selection.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Five Dimes
Peter O'Malley to beat Anders Hansen -125 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-0-1; +1.50 units

Montgomerie/Clarke TIED (Push)
O'Malley/Hansen WON by 4

Mid-point update:

Green/Coltart Trails by 6
O'Malley/Coltart All Square
Lawrie/Davis WON by 11
Davis/Schwartzel TIED (Lost)
Dredge/Westwood TIED (Push)

Goosen 2nd
Lawrie 7th
Dredge mc

Hopeful position with the outrights. Goosen can apply the pressure on Harrington over the weekend and Lawrie is just one place of a top-6 winning position. Frustrated with the matchups though. In the double-play, Davis managed to bogey both the par-fives in the last four holes to end up in a tie with Schwartzel and that's a loss with BetandWin.

3rd round play (1.5 units):

Warren Bennett to beat Peter Baker -127 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-1-0; -1.91 units

Bennett/Baker LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 1-3-1; -6.17 units

Green/Coltart LOST by 9
O'Malley/Coltart LOST by 6

18-holes: 1-1-1; -0.41 units

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Goosen 3rd
Lawrie 8th

Good-sized loss on the event from such a promising position. Continue to struggle on matchups on this Tour and while the lost tie on Davis/Schwartzel would have repaired some of the damage, it would have still been a loss on these plays. Very close with the outrights. Goosen finished one shot out of the playoff and Lawrie finished one shot out of the top-6 payout.