The Diageo Championship

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to win 10/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Last week's miss cut in the U.S. Open was the second time that he has finished outside the top-10 in any event this year since his season-opening event, the South African Open. As a U.S. Open rookie and with a game that does not suit, there is no shame in that short adventure, but it will mean that he is better prepared to lift the title that he won in 2001, his maiden Tour victory. He has since followed that with two more victories this year and heads the market, generally at 8/1. Will take the better odds at Easybets and cannot see him outside the top-10.

Paul Lawrie to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, BlueSq and Stan James
He also returned home at the weekend having shown good form recently. He had been in contention in the previous week's FBR Capitol Open until the delayed final round and had finished in the top-10 in two of his previous European Tour starts. He has won twice in Scotland already - famously at Carnoustie in 1999 and in the 2001 Dunhill Links Championship - and is well-suited to links style golf and weather.

Ignacio Garrido to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Not a likely selection until he won the Volvo PGA Championship in May. He then followed that with a top-20 finish in the British Masters two weeks later, so it looks as if his form has been maintained. He has the best preparation for this event in that he did not play at Olympia Fields last week and while he would not appear to have the stature of a natural links player, he did finish 6th here last year and 11th in the Dunhill Links Championship last October, so appearances must be deceptive. There should be no doubting his confidence at the moment.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Easybets
Poulter is certainly one to oppose in matchups, though maybe hedge with the outright market. His last ten events has resulted in five missed cuts, two finishes outside the top-65, a top-20 finishes, a runners-up spot and a win. Erratic is an understatement! With two missed cuts in two starts on this course this should be a bad week for Poulter. Straightforward choice with the consistent Casey who has finished ahead of his rival in each of their last seven common events.

Adam Scott to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Similar story with the defending champion Scott. He is far more consistent, has an impressive h2h record against Poulter and was much more impressive last year when shooting 26-under-par to win this event by ten shots.

Paul Lawrie to beat Andrew Coltart -125 @ Easybets
Opposing Coltart who has shown some glimpses of form this season, but struggles badly on links courses. His record on this course is particularly poor with three missed cuts and a 68th place finish the sum of his four previous efforts. Not one round was in the 60s and is easily opposed with a true links player.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Darren Fichardt -110 @ SkyBet
Maybe I've missed something here, but there are some very strong angles in favour of Kjeldsen in this matchup. He has finished ahead of Fichardt in each of their last five common events and Fichardt has never made the cut in any of his seven starts in Scotland, including this event last year. Kjeldsen is far from a complete links player, but Fichardt looks particularly weak this week.

Adding (1.5 units):

David Park to beat Philip Golding -111 @ BetandWin
With three top-20 finishes in the past three months to Golding's one, Park does have the edge in current form, particularly as that run includes two 7th place finishes. Links golf is quite a rare challenge though and in this respect Park also holds an advantage. He has made the cut in each of the last two seasons, whereas Golding shot 74-79 to be 16 shots behind Park after two rounds when he went home last year and in six European Tour events in Scotland, Golding has made the cut just once, finishing 71st on that occasion. Hardly a links player.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Jarrod Moseley -115 @ Five Dimes  (-110 @ Bet365 where ties lose)
Moseley is hardly consistent - a runners-up spot and three missed cuts in his last eight starts - and he missed the cut on his only previous visit to Gleneagles. He was 10 shots behind Kjeldsen on that occasion and has finished ahead of him only once in the last three months. Can't see much change this week.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Peter O'Malley -118 @ Expekt
O'Malley is a former winner on this course (1992 Scottish Open), but that was a long time ago and he has largely struggled on this course. In seven previous visits, he has a win, two further top-20 finishes and four missed cuts, but he is also opposed because of poor current form. Since his promising top-10 finish to open his European campaign, he has missed two of three cuts in Europe and finished 52nd on the other occasion. Not only has he not finished ahead of Kjeldsen in Europe any time in the last three months, but he has only done so once in the last year.

1st round plays (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to beat Colin Montgomerie -125 @ Five Dimes
Adam Scott to beat Paul Lawrie -117 @ Five Dimes
Richard Green to beat Darren Fichardt -118 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 2-1-0; +1.13 units

Casey/Montgomerie LOST by 4
Scott/Lawrie WON by 5
Green/Fichardt WON by 3

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Santiago Luna to beat Graeme McDowell +103 @ Five Dimes
Stephen Gallacher to beat David Park -115 @ Five Dimes
Peter O'Malley to beat Richard Green +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 3-0-0; +6.05 units

Luna/McDowell WON by 2
Gallacher/Park WON by 4
O'Malley/Green WON by 1

Mid-point update:

Casey/Poulter WON by 12
Scott/Poulter WON by 12
Lawrie/Coltart WON by 13
Kjeldsen/Fichardt Leads by 12
Park/Golding All Square
Kjeldsen/Moseley WON by 13
Kjeldsen/O'Malley Leads by 10

Casey 21st
Lawrie 27th
Garrido mc

Excellent position at the cut with none of the matchups trailing, four graded as wins at the cut and a decent profit on the 18-hole plays. Casey and Lawrie have some work to do over the weekend to ensure a return on the outrights, but a couple more sub-par rounds and they will certainly be in contention.

3rd round play (1.5 units):

John Bickerton to beat Stephen Gallacher -105 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-1-0; -1.58 units

Bickerton/Gallacher LOST by 4

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Graeme McDowell to beat Raphael Jacquelin -110 @ Five Dimes
Paul Broadhurst to beat Steve Webster +105 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 1-1-0; -0.08 units

McDowell/Jacquelin LOST by 2
Broadhurst/Webster WON by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 6-1-0; +7.34 units

Kjeldsen/Fichardt WON by 16
Park/Golding LOST by 3
Kjeldsen/O'Malley WON by 13

18-holes: 6-3-0; +5.52 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Casey 13th
Lawrie 57th

Glad to have profited with three matchups on Kjeldsen as he was on the shortlist for the outrights at 66/1 but not selected. Still a very profitable week and a shame that Park failed to deliver the sweep on the matchups. A much-needed good week on this Tour!