Dubai Desert Classic

Outright play (0.75 units):

Darren Clarke to win 15/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
According to Butch Harmon, he re-dedicated himself to his golf and worked very hard on his swing over the winter and it has started to pay off. He finished last season with two top-10 finishes (he had had only one since winning the English Open in June), has had two more this year, was 12th at the cut in Buick Invitational before he was disqualified for signing an incorrect card and was a quarter-finalist last week. His game again Furyk was one of the highlights of the week and it was no surprise that he faded in the next round when coasting against Lonard. He was "upset" that he lost that match and the chance to repeat his 2000 victory in the Match Play and we should see a determined Clarke at the Emirates this week.

Adding (0.75 units):

Ernie Els to win 4/1 @ Easybets
With most places offering 9/4, these odds are hard to ignore. He may have lost in the first round last week, but better that (for this event) than be exhausted from progressing until the weekend. Match play events can be easily ignored for capping purposes and that leaves five starts for the Big Easy in 2003 and four wins with his solitary 2nd place finish in the Singapore Masters on some very poor greens (his 30.25 ppr in that event was his 4th worst putting performance in the last two years). Add in his course form - two wins and no worse than 8th in his five starts in this event (all played at the Emirates) - and he is a justifiable favourite.

Greg Owen to finish in the top-five 25/1 @ SkyBet
His widely available odds of 100/1 are staggering. Yes, he did lose his form in the second half of last season, but he is much too good a player not to rebound. And rebound he did in the Johnnie Walker Classic, his last start. He was 2nd after two rounds in one of the strongest fields of the year and though he did struggle in the 3rd round and finish 24th, he should draw a great deal of confidence from the return of his competitiveness. With two 12th place finishes in the last two years at the Emirates, this "fairways-and-greens" player could do enough to sneak into the top-5 and stay there this week. A very unlikely winner, so the place-only terms are the best option.

Matchup plays (0.75 units unless stated):

Anders Hansen to beat Arjun Atwal -110 @ Intertops [1.5 units]
Opposing Atwal who won the Malaysian Open on his last outing. He won the Singapore Masters (also a co-sanctioned event) in the same week last year and then proceeded to miss the next eight cuts on the European Tour, including this event last year. Indeed, until the time that the Tour returned to Asia, Atwal missed 16 of 22 cuts with a high finish of 42nd. Although a similar collapse after such a major win is not expected to occur to the same degree, he was in good form in Asia and Australia before the 2002 and 2003 wins and competing on European (or Middle Eastern) courses is a very different matter to Asian courses. Siding with Hansen who has one runners-up spot this year and has solid course form as well.

Paul Mcginley to beat Arjun Atwal -118 @ Expekt [1.5 units]
McGinley can also point to solid course form - he has three top-10 finishes in nine visits and finished in the top-3 both times that the event was staged at Dubai Creek. Coming off two top-20 finishes, this should be another solid performance from the Irishman.

Jarrod Moseley to beat Arjun Atwal -118 @ Easybets
Also siding with Moseley to beat Atwal. Moseley has had a good season on the Australasian Tour with one notable win, the Australian PGA Championship, a top-5 finish in the ANZ Championship and a strong performance in last week's Jacob's Creek Open before a final round failing. With a 11-3-1 h2h advantage over Atwal in the last 12 months in European events, the Australian should have the advantage this week.

Richard Green to beat Thongchai Jaidee +100 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
This is the scene of Green's only Tour win and an impressive one it was too! He defeated Greg Norman and Ian Woosnam in a playoff in 1997. He has followed that with good performances on this course in the last two years and barring some poor results in the last few weeks, he had been in very good form over the New Year. Will gladly take these odds against a player who, like Atwal, performs much better on the Asian PGA Tour.

Adding (0.75 units):

Thomas Bjorn to beat Shingo Katayama -149 @ Boyle
Siding with the player who despite concerns over his form should be able to raise his game this week. He spends six months of the year in this area and has used his local knowledge to good effect in this event, including a win two years ago. Katayama started his 2003 campaign last week after a 12-week layoff and was very rusty. He shot 75 in 1st round to lose to Mediate and he does not look set to play much better this week.

Would have added Dredge over Atwal (-125 Pinnacle) as a double-play but am already opposing Atwal three times and don't want to be overexposed on one player.

Mid-point update:

Hansen/Atwal LOST by 5
McGinley/Atwal WON by 5
Moseley/Atwal WON by 4
Green/Jaidee Trails by 4
Bjorn/Katayama Leads by 3

Els 1st
Owen 7th
Clarke 20th

Very promising situation at the cut. Atwal was profitably opposed, though Hansen's poor play as definitely not expected, and all the outrights have a chance of a return. But how many times have I said that before the weekend began!

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; +0.60 units

Green/Jaidee LOST by 10
Bjorn/Katayama WON by 7

Outrights: 0-3; -2.25 units

Els 2nd
Owen 28th
Clarke 11th

Another very promising situation at the cut that fails to be fulfilled. Els tried his very best to lose this tournament and eventually he succeeded when he fluffed his chip at the last. Clarke closed with six consecutive birdies, but it was too late and Owen fell down the leaderboard after every round. A loss-making event.