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Dunhill Links Championship
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Adam Scott to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Tempted to side with Vijay Singh at 10/1 and, a little less so, with
Clarke at 14/1, but will instead stick with two of last week's
selections who did at least get themselves into contention and showed
enough promise to suggest they will win again soon. Scott won twice last
month and if the wind stays reasonably calm, he could certainly repeat
his performance in the 2002 Scottish PGA Championship at Gleneagles when
he humbled the course en route to a 10-shot victory. He can certainly
play links golf!
Paul Casey to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365,
Victor
Chandler, BlueSq
and
UKBetting
Casey won the Gleneagles event the year before Scott and he followed
that with a top-5 finish in this event that year, so there can be few
questions about Casey's links credentials either. Like Scott, so long as
the winds do not rise above the current forecast speeds, their attacking
play should reap dividends on these courses and both have a proven
record of winning in this company.
Niclas Fasth to finish in the top-six 12/1 @ SkyBet
Fasth's winning credentials are less impressive. His only Tour win was
in the weak Madeira Island Open in 2000, but he is still one of Europe's
best prospects and should retain his place in the Ryder Cup team. He
started relatively slowly last week and this was probably a result of
the Monday finish in the John Deere Classic, but a 65-65 weekend ensured
a 3rd place finish. He is a streaky, confidence player and should, if
not too tired, maintain his form into this week. Plus, having secured a
top-5 finish in 19% of the European Tour starts in the last three years,
these look good odds for a top-SIX finish.
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Padraig Harrington to beat Michael Campbell -111 @
Stan James and Ladbrokes
[3 units]
Opposing Campbell who is capable of winning this event, but is far from
a consistent player. He turned his season around with a win in the Irish
Open and has generally played well in Europe while struggling Stateside,
but having missed the cut in this event in the last two years and also
in the British Open at St Andrews in 2000, there seems little reason to
expect another high finish this week. Taking only links courses into
consideration, Campbell has missed the cut in every event in Scotland
since 1999 (6 cuts). This is a far cry from Harrington who has finished
5th and 1st in this event and was in the top-20 when the British Open
came to St Andrews.
Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -111 @
Expekt
[3 units]
Price did miss the cut at the British Open in 2000, but he still a good
links player - he won the event a decade ago and has finished 14th and
28th in the last two seasons. He is no stranger to St Andrews either,
having regularly competed in the Dunhill Cup. While he now has a very
light schedule and would be an unlikely winner this week, he has
finished in the top-5 in four of his last seven starts and should not
finish outside the top-30.
Adam Scott to beat Michael Campbell -110 @
Sportingbet
and
Sporting Odds
[3 units]
Scott has a much stronger chance of winning this week (though also of
missing the cut!), having shown good form recently, on these courses
last year and in winning the Scottish PGA Championship around Gleneagles
also last year. Find no reason to oppose the outright selection in this
widely-available matchup.
(also available at Victor Chandler, BetandWin, SIA, Paddy Power,
Intertops, Pinnacle and Olympic)
Vijay Singh to beat Darren Clarke -125 @
Paddy Power
and
SIA
Did consider Clarke for the outright markets as he has won twice (one a
big event, the NEC Invitational, and the other a minor one, a Challenge
Tour event) in his last four starts, but he has finished outside the
top-20 in each of the two years of this event. He may find the pro-am
format a little distracting. Not such a problem for Singh who finished
3rd here last year and has been playing extremely well for much longer.
His form at St Andrews is also exemplary: apart from his 3rd place
finish last year, he has finished 12th, 6th and 11th in the last three
British Opens here.
Eduardo Romero to beat Andrew Coltart -111 @
Stan James [3 units]
No contest here. Romero has finished ahead of the Scot in both years of
this event, finishing 2nd after losing a playoff to Harrington last year and has dominated this matchup over
the past year: 12-1-0 h2h over the past 12 months and 6-0-0 over the
past 3 months. Coltart's brief spurt of form ended at the Trophee
Lancome and he should struggle to make the weekend.
Niclas Fasth to beat
Robert Karlsson -118 @
Centrebet
[3 units]
Fasth also dominates in this matchup. He leads Karlsson 7-2-1 h2h over
the past year and 3-1-0 over the past three months. He also finished
well ahead of his compatriot last year when Karlsson missed the cut.
Good reason to side with the intense Fasth again.
Colin Montgomerie to beat Peter Hedblom -125 @
Sportingbet
and
Sporting Odds
Don't side with Monty too many times at the moment, but it does look as
though the Hedblom bubble has burst. His seven-week run of form is
longer than most purple patches, but he has missed the cut and finished
64th in his last two starts. Monty, for his part, has finished in the
top-5 in this event in the last two years so he can play on links
courses when without the intense media interest during British Open
weeks and despite the Swede's form, he does lead him 4-2-0 h2h over the
past three months.
No 1st round plays.
2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Raphael Jacquelin to beat Phillip Price -120 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Paul McGinley to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -138 @ Five
Dimes
Thomas Levet to beat Andrew Coltart -110 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -107 @ Five
Dimes [4.5 units]
Gary Evans to beat Peter Hedblom +100 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Ernie Els to beat Vijay Singh -122 @ Five
Dimes
Glen Day to beat Marten Lafeber -133 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
2nd round update: 3-3-1; -3.38 units
Jacquelin/Price WON by 3
McGinley/Gonzalez LOST by 2
Levet/Coltart WON by 2
Price/Campbell LOST by 2
Evans/Hedblom TIED (Push)
Els/Singh WON by 1
Day/Lafeber LOST by 4
3rd round play (3 units):
Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -107 @ Five Dimes
3rd round update: 0-1-0; -3.21 units
Price/Campbell LOST by 4
4th round play (1.5 units):
Mark McNulty to beat Nick Dougherty -115 @ Five Dimes
4th round update: 1-0-0; +1.50 units
McNulty/Dougherty WON by 3
Final update:
Matchups: 1-6-0; -17.21 units
Harrington/Campbell LOST by 6
Price/Campbell LOST by 5
Scott/Campbell LOST by 8
Singh/Clarke LOST by 4
Romero/Coltart LOST by 5
Fasth/Karlsson LOST by 6
Montgomerie/Hedblom WON by 3
18-holes: 4-4-1; -5.09 units
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Scott 49th
Casey mc
Fasth mc
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