Dutch Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Brian Davis to win 18/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
A little cautious about backing a player who played in the U.S. last week, but this has now become such a weak event that this is a stand-out price. His previous post-U.S. performances this year are encouraging: after the U.S. Open he finished 5th in the Open de France and after the PGA Championship he finished 11th in the BMW International Open, though he did have a week's rest in both those cases. His quality relative to this field is evidenced by his nine top-10 finishes from 18 starts in Europe this year (plus two 11th place finishes) so if not too tired, he should be the player to beat this week.

Mathias Gronberg to win 28/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Gronberg has not been anywhere near as consistent this season, but he has won (Italian Open). His form has been a little patchy since that win in May, but last month he did finish in the top-15 in the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour and recorded a top-10 finish in the German Masters. Generally a good outright selection to have if he is in the hunt at the halfway stage.

Robert Karlsson to win 33/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Karlsson is rather more unreliable in that situation, though he does get into contention rather a lot. He has four top-10 finishes in his last seven European starts and while on each occasion he was much better placed at the cut, there are very few in this field who can claim that form. He did finish in the top-20 when he last played here in 1997 and will be looking to improve on that this time around.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

John Bickerton to beat Charlie Wi -125 @ BetInternet
Bickerton has made eight of his last ten cuts against just three for Wi and with Wi having never played the course previously (Bickerton has made the last three cuts), the Englishman does have an important advantage.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Nick Dougherty -115 @ Five Dimes
Finishing 2nd in the Scandinavian Masters, Dougherty has finished 82nd, mc, 54th, mc and 35th. The short-term recovery from glandular fever appears to have been a false dawn and he is opposed heavily this week. Donaldson has finished ahead of "Little Nick" in four of their last five events and on this course last year; he should prevail again.

Bradley Dredge to beat Nick Dougherty -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Dredge has not been in the best of form lately, but he still dominates this matchup: 4-2-0 in the past three months and 15-3-1 over the past year. He played his 2nd European Pro Tour event of the season last week and finished 3rd around the Vale of Glamorgan course so it should have helped his confidence to be back in contention again.

Stephen Gallacher to beat Nick Dougherty -118 @ Expekt
Adding a Scot to the two Welsh players opposing the Englishman. Gallacher has missed his last two cuts, but has a h2h record of 6-2-0 over Dougherty in the past three months. He should beat the ailing youngster.

Bradley Dredge to beat Pierre Fulke -122 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Fulke is simply hopelessly out of form. He has followed his 15th place finish in the British Open with just four events in which he has finished 75th, mc, 67th (out of 78) and mc. Four of his last eleven rounds have been in the eighties and just one round has been under-par. Very opposable.

Joachim Haeggman to beat Pierre Fulke -111 @ BetandWin
Haeggman's form has been impressive considering his seven-month layoff with injury. He has made five of seven cuts and finished in the top-25 in his last two events. Fulke can only dream of that form.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ Bet365
Three good top-25 finishes in his last three starts are encouraging from the former winner of the Volvo PGA Championship whose game had been in the doldrums for the last two years, but he has no course experience and still trails 1-3-0 h2h to Kjeldsen over the past three months.
(also available at SIA)

Maarten Lafeber to beat Henrik Stenson -115 @ Intertops [3 units]
Was tempted to back Lafeber in the outright markets, but though the pressure of the home crowd down the stretch would be too much as he chases his maiden Tour win. He has been close many times, including last time out when finishing 4th in the Dunhill Links Championship. He holds a commanding 7-1-0 h2h lead over Stenson in the past three months and barring the pressure of being the best home player, should win this matchup.
(also available at BlueSq, William Hill and Easybets)

Final update:

Matchups: 5-3-0; +3.53 units

Bickerton/Wi WON by 5
Donaldson/Dougherty WON by 15
Dredge/Dougherty WON by 5
Gallacher/Dougherty WON by 5
Dredge/Fulke LOST by 6
Haeggman/Fulke LOST by 4
Kjeldsen/Stenson LOST by 7
Lafeber/Stenson WON by 11

Outrights: 1-2; +1.50 units

Davis 15th
Gronberg 2nd
Karlsson 50th

A rare event indeed ... profitable matchups and outright plays on the European Tour this year! Could have been an extremely profitable event, but Gronberg finished one shot behind Lafeber who I had considered but dropped from the outrights as the pressure of being a home player was deemed to be too great. Wrong. Though he was a little suspect, just not enough to let Gronberg have a share of the lead again.