Canarias Open de Espana
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Bradley Dredge to win 14/1 e.w. @ BlueSq, Boyle
and BetDirect
Very hard to leave out in this form. Not at his best last week, but still it
still took three chip-ins by Jacobson in the final round to deny him at least a
place in the playoff. He did play in this event last year so he does have
experience of local conditions in the Canary Islands even if the course is a new
one and he finished in the top-5 in the two events in mainland Spain at the end
of last season.
Jamie Donaldson to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Passed over last week when in the top-10 of my rankings, so will try not to miss
out again. He had shown good form in the Middle East and in Australia this year
before finishing 2nd alongside Dredge last week, but his performance under the
pressure of the final day was particularly impressive last week. Like Dredge he
played in this event last year and that should be of some benefit. Looks a good
prospect to even a return if in contention on Sunday.
Greg Owen to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Centrebet
Last Sunday Owen showed why he is one to avoid on a each-way basis. It was
impressive that he remained in contention after finally losing the lead and even
regained it once again with three holes to play, but once again he faded. There
may be a reaction this week, but he did follow his 3rd place finish in the 2002
Algarve Open de Portugal with 3rd place in this event last year and maybe
history will repeat itself. Either way, his form is good, he has good memories
of competing in the Canaries and 10/1 is too large for a player who has put
himself into contention so many times.
Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Robert-Jan Derksen -118 @
Expekt
The last thing Derksen needed was a three-week break in the European Tour
schedule. He had just beaten Ernie Els to win the Dubai Desert Classic and
finished 6th in the Madeira Island Open ... but shot 81-79 to finish almost last
in the last week's event. Gonzalez makes his first start since Australia, but is
the far better player, particularly now that Derksen has lost his momentum, and
leads 9-3-0 h2h over the past year.
Sergio Garcia to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -138 @ Bet365
Take the Masters out of the equation and Olly's best finish this year in an
event with a cut is 65th and the Costa Adeje course will bear little resemblance
to Augusta. Garcia leads 4-2-0 h2h in all events this year and while he is also
struggling with his game, he is the far better player. It was this event in 2001
that kick-started his season after a similarly poor opening few months.
Adding (1.5 units):
Jamie Donaldson to beat Graeme McDowell -118 @
Easybets
McDowell has struggled this year on the European Tour just just one cut form his
last three events and his brief journey to the PGA Tour beforehand was unequally
unproductive: just one cut in three events and each time he finished behind
Donaldson. Just can't see any reason for it to be different this week.
Soren Kjeldsen to beat Andrew Marshall -111 @
BetandWin
Opposed Marshall last week and he duly missed the cut. He did manage to finish
70th in the Canaries last year, but that was nine strokes behind Kjeldsen who
hasn't missed a cut in his last ten events. It should take a big week from
Marshall to deny this match.
Richard Sterne to beat Marcel Siem -111 @
William Hill
It was a career week from Siem last week and the pressure showed. He did finish
8th to follow up his 11th place finish in the Madeira Island Open after having
missed his previous four cuts, but he is far from a consistent player. Sterne
has beaten him in each of the three events in Europe that they have entered
together and looks a very good prospect.
1st round plays (1.5 units):
Sergio Garcia to beat Bradley Dredge -125 @ Five
Dimes
Brian Davis to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five
Dimes
Ian Poulter to beat Darren Fichardt -120 @ Five
Dimes
1st round update: 0-3-0; -5.40 units
Garcia/Dredge LOST by 2
Davis/Olazabal LOST by 2
Poulter/Fichardt LOST by 4
2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Andrew Marshall to beat Charl Schwartzel +100 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
Paul Casey to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five
Dimes
Bradley Dredge to beat Brian Davis -127 @ Five
Dimes
Steve Webster to beat Richard Sterne -115 @ Five
Dimes
Richard Green to beat Gary Evans -112 @ Five
Dimes
2nd round update: 5-0-0; +9.00 units
Marshall/Schwartzel WON by 3
Casey/Olazabal WON by 2
Dredge/Davis WON by 1
Webster/Sterne WON by 1
Green/Evans WON by 4
Mid-point update:
Gonzalez/Derksen All Square
Garcia/Olazabal Trails by 5
Donaldson/McDowell Trails by 1
Kjeldsen/Marshall Trails by 5
Sterne/Siem Leads by 1
Dredge 15th
Donaldson 25th
Owen mc
Relieved to have reversed the first day blank, but still work to be done to
finish this event in profit as this is not a course on which players can catch
up. Just as well the two of the outrights are within five shots of the lead.
Very poor choice with Owen though. I would have never have picked him had I
foreseen this event would deteriorate into a putting contest.
3rd round plays (1.5 units):
Brian Davis to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -108 @ Five
Dimes
Peter Lawrie to beat Nicolas Vanhootegem -122 @ Five
Dimes
Shaun P. Webster to beat Warren Bennett -115 @ Five
Dimes
3rd round update: 3-0-0; +4.50 units
Davis/Olazabal WON by 4
Lawrie/Vanhootegem WON by 3
Webster/Bennett WON by 4
4th round plays (1.5 units):
Brian Davis to beat Paul Casey -113 @ Five
Dimes
Peter Hedblom to beat Marten Olander -112 @ Five
Dimes
Santiago Luna to beat Charl Schwartzel +105 @ Five
Dimes
4th round update: 2-1-0; +1.50 units
Davis/Casey WON by 2
Hedblom/Olander WON by 3
Luna/Schwartzel LOST by 3
Final update:
Matchups: 2-3-0; -2.40 units
Gonzalez/Derksen WON by 7
Garcia/Olazabal LOST by 1
Donaldson/McDowell WON by 2
Kjeldsen/Marshall LOST by 1
Sterne/Siem LOST by 4
18-holes: 10-4-0; +9.60 units
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Dredge 44th
Donaldson 50th
Thankful for the 18-holes this week. They turned a loss-making event into a
profitable one, despite a first-round blank. Some narrow losses on the matchups,
but the outrights were particularly disappointing ... not that I would have ever
picked Kenneth Ferrie to win!