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Smurfit European Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Padraig Harrington to win 11/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Justifiably heads the market. He has finished 2nd in this event for the last two years and while this is rather indicative of the Irishman, there are signs that he is finally converting more of his chances. He won twice in the last few months of 2002 and after two further runners-up spots, he won on his last outing in Europe - the Deutsche Bank-SAP Open - with Tiger Woods in the field. He has since had confidence-boosting high finishes in the United States and it is hard to see him outside the top-10 this week. He certainly would be a very popular winner!

Paul Casey to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler and Stan James
This is a future venue for the Ryder Cup as there is a definite risk/reward factor at the K Club. The last five winners on this course have been noted for their attacking golf and the last two selections definitely fall into this category. A U.S. Open setup was never going to suit Casey and he missed the cut, but it was the first time that he had finished outside the top-20 in any event since his opening event of the year. He is now had a week's rest and will look to improve on his 20th and 9th place finishes on this course.

Thomas Bjorn to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
The downside of attacking golf is lots of bogeys as well as birdies and Bjorn has had his fair share of each of these around the K Club. In his seven previous visits, he can count three top-10 finishes and three missed cuts. But he certainly showed last week that he is in good form and hopefully he can hang on to any midway lead that he may hold. He finished 2nd alongside Harrington in 2001 and lost in a playoff to Harrington for the Deutsche Bank - SAP Open ... I'll be happy if he as close to the Irishman again!

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

John Bickerton to beat Carlos Rodiles -110 @ BetInternet
Both have struggled on this course, but Bickerton enters this event in much the better form. A top-10 finish at Gleneagles and a 30th place finish last week are good performances and I think the Englishman will make the cut this week to win this match.

Niclas Fasth to beat Angel Cabrera -110 @ BlueSq
Neither player in this matchup has struggled on this course. Cabrera finished no worse than 6th from 1998 to 2000 and both players finished 6th last year. But Cabrera has really struggled as he has tried to concentrate on the PGA Tour this season. He has missed seven of twelve cuts this year, including his last two in Europe, so the in-form Fasth is certainly favoured this week.

Niclas Fasth to beat Paul Lawrie -111 @ William Hill
He is also favoured over Lawrie this week. Lawrie's course record is just as impressive as Cabrera's but his game has definitely cooled in the past month. After a string of fine performances in April/early May, he has missed two of his last four cuts and finished 42nd and 57th in the other two. He has just one round in the 60s in that spell. Fasth has finished ahead of Lawrie in their last four common events on either side of the pond and should record another good finish this week.

Bradley Dredge to beat Mathias Gronberg -111 @ Ladbrokes
Gronberg is a former winner of this event (1998), but as with most of his golf, he has an rather erratic record. Three missed cuts, a win, a 4th place and a 12th place finish form his six-year history at the K Club. It is a similar record this season, so I will side with the more consistent player who has also win this year, was 2nd last year and looked much better for a rest at last week's event.

Nick Faldo to beat Anders Hansen -111 @ BetandWin
Will always look to oppose a player who has yet to finish in the top-30 in any of his last ten events and whose best finish in four visits to this course is 30th. Dependable Nick should prevail.

Stephen Leaney to beat Peter O'Malley -111 @ Ladbrokes
O'Malley finished ahead of Leaney last week, but a top-15 finish was still a good performance and he will be even more suited to the layout at the K Club. Not sure if O'Malley will repeat last week's form - he has been unable to put together a string of good results this year - but he will need to in order to beat Leaney who had finished ahead of him in every common event this season (8 events) until last week.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Colin Montgomerie +108 @ Five Dimes
Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Andrew Coltart -130 @ Five Dimes
Graeme McDowell to beat Soren Hansen -130 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +4.17 units

Cabrera/Montgomerie WON by 2
Gonzalez/Coltart LOST by 10
McDowell/Hansen WON by 2

Mid-point update:

Bickerton/Rodiles Trails by 1
Fasth/Cabrera Trails by 6
Fasth/Lawrie WON by 2
Dredge/Gronberg Trails by 7
Faldo/Hansen Leads by 1
Leaney/O'Malley WON by 2

Harrington 61st
Casey 40th
Bjorn 24th

Couldn't be much better at this stage. Nice profit on the 2nd round plays and not one matchup selection under-par after 36 holes, but two wins already and the rest alive. They and the outrights have a lot to do over the weekend to gain any more wins, but they've been cheap so far!

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Bernhard Langer to beat Mathias Gronberg -104 @ Five Dimes
Mark McNulty to beat Charl Schwartzel -110 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-0-0; +3.00 units

Langer/Gronberg WON by 6
McNulty/Schwartzel WON by 8

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Fredrik Andersson to beat Klas Eriksson -120 @ Five Dimes
Bernhard Langer to beat Lee Westwood -133 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 1-1-0; -0.50 units

Andersson/Eriksson WON by 2
Langer/Westwood LOST by 4

Final update:

Matchups: 3-3-0; -0.47 units

Bickerton/Rodiles LOST by 4
Fasth/Cabrera LOST by 8
Dredge/Gronberg LOST by 1
Faldo/Hansen WON by 1

18-holes: 5-2-0; +6.67 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Harrington 61st
Casey 13th
Bjorn 16th

Small profit on the event thanks to the 18-hole plays. Not even close with the outrights, but the matchups could have been better. Dredge had a one-shot lead over playing partner and matchup opponent, Gronberg, when they teed off on the last hole ... he had a one-shot deficit when they left the green.