German Masters

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and BetInternet
The young pretender is retained as a selection yet again. As stated in previous weeks and still true, apart from the British Open, his worst finish in Europe this season has been 13th and he has won twice already in 2003. He was 3rd here last year and will surely earn a considerable amount of Ryder Cup points this week en route to gaining an automatic place in the team. He is capable of winning any event in Europe and this week is no exception.

Adam Scott to win 22/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Victor Chandler
Scott can certainly claim to being another of the young pretenders and it is important for the next stage in his career that he has now won on the PGA Tour. As in the past in Europe, he won the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship sprinting away from the field. It is also worth remembering that he won his last event in Europe as well, the Scandinavian Masters last month. Like Casey, he is capable of winning any event in Europe in particular and that cannot be said about too many of the last European Ryder Cup team who are out in force this week.

Alex Cejka to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Victor Chandler
If Cejka can repeat his form of the last twelve months in the next twelve, he will be in the next Ryder Cup team. He followed victory in the 2002 Trophee Lancome with the gaining of his 2003 PGA Tour card at Q-School and he won't need to go back again this year following his 2nd place finish in the B.C. Open and 4th place in the PGA Championship. In his sole European Tour start this season, he finished 2nd in the BMW International Open three weeks ago, the same position that he finished in this event last year. He coped with home expectations at Nord-Eichenried and should again finish as leading German.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

John Bickerton to beat Soren Hansen -118 @ Expekt
Apart from his 3rd place finish in the Nordic Open, Hansen has been really struggling with his form and just one cut from three visits is not supportive this week. Siding with the form player who has a 5-2-1 h2h record against Hansen over the past three months.

Eduardo Romero to beat Andrew Coltart -120 @ Pinnacle [3 units]
Coltart's run of form can to an abrupt end last week when he finished last of the weekend players in the Trophee Lancome. He will need to quickly rediscover his previous form if he is to finish ahead of Romero who has a 11-1-0 h2h (12 months) and 5-0-0 (3 months) record against him.
(also available at Olympic)

Nick Faldo to beat Alastair Forsyth -115 @ Pinnacle
Faldo failed to make the cut in his last event, the BMW International Open, but that is small change compared to Forsyth who has failed to do so in any of his last four events since collapsing from a promising position in the British Open in July. He has also missed two cuts out of three on this course, so Faldo should only need to be playing at the weekend to win this one.
(also available at Olympic)

Niclas Fasth to beat Pierre Fulke -165 @ Pinnacle
A Monday finish in Illinois is hardly ideal preparation for an event that starts in Germany on Thursday, but Fasth is not short of determination and he will overcome this handicap. It could have been very easy for him to coast after an opening eight in his final round, but he played very well from there onwards to finish 21st. Tired or not, he should also beat a struggling Fulke against whom he has a 6-1-0 h2h record in Europe over the past year.
(also available at Olympic)

Marten Lafeber to beat Marcus Fraser -110 @ BetInternet
Fraser may have won the BMW Russian Open, but has failed to finish in the top-30 in his three events since, including one missed cut. Lafeber is much better matchup material having not missed a cut since the European Open (8 starts ago). He has finished ahead of Fraser in three of their last four starts and being the only player in this matchup with course experience, he should make it five.

Bernhard Langer to beat Robert Karlsson -110 @ Bet365
In form and with an excellent record in this event (top-15 in every year on this course), Langer is a solid play in Germany. The Monday finish will not help his cause, but this is an event that he co-hosts with his brother and there will be nothing less than 100% commitment this week.

Adding (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Centrebet
Against Casey's consistency there's Ian Poulter. Since winning the Nordic Open in August, he has finished 61st, 33rd, mc and then 3rd last week after a week off with tonsillitis. He is not the most consistent of players, so siding with the outright selection again.

1st round play (3 units):

Paul McGinley to beat Lee Westwood -108 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-0-0; +3.00 units

McGinley/Westwood WON by 4

2nd round plays (3 units unless stated):

K.J. Choi to beat Fredrik Jacobson -103 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
Adam Scott to beat Ian Poulter -128 @ Five Dimes
John Bickerton to beat Carlos Rodiles -108 @ Five Dimes
Angel Cabrera to beat Robert Karlsson +103 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-3-0; -5.58 units

Choi/Jacobson WON by 3
Scott/Poulter LOST by 6
Bickerton/Rodiles LOST by 3
Cabrera/Karlsson LOST by 4

Mid-point update:

Bickerton/Hansen WON by 6
Romero/Coltart WON by 5
Faldo/Forsyth TIED (Push)
Fasth/Fulke WON (Fulke wd)
Lafeber/Fraser All Square
Langer/Karlsson LOST by 6
Casey/Poulter Trails by 4

Casey 9th
Scott 13th
Cejka 52nd

Promising mid-point position again compromised by some poor 2nd round plays. Five matchups are decided at the cut with just one loss and two of the outrights are in contention over the weekend.

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Niclas Fasth to beat David Howell -113 @ Five Dimes
Nick O'Hern to beat Emanuele Canonica -122 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-1-0; -0.33 units

Fasth/Howell WON by 4
O'Hern/Canonica LOST by 2

No 4th round plays.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-3-1; +0.82 units

Lafeber/Fraser LOST by 1
Casey/Poulter LOST by 9

18-holes: 3-4-0; -2.91 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Casey 19th
Scott 16th
Cejka 13th

Poor final day. Lafeber lost a three-shot lead to Fraser and Casey failed to hold on to his top-5 finish courtesy of a triple-bogey on the 9th hole. Scott could have taken his place had he been 1-under-par for the last three holes, but he was three-over instead. Despite the promise at the cut, it failed to materialise on this Tour yet again.