Irish Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Darren Clarke to win 10/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Victor Chandler
Disappointing week for the well-fancied Irishman, but he has admitted afterwards that "some unknown reason Royal St. George’s never fitted my eye and I did not feel comfortable having to hit some of the shots that I had to." He had been working with Butch Harmon and was hitting the ball extremely well on the driving range, but could not take it out onto a course on which he lacked confidence. It should be a very different story at a Portmarnock course he knows very well. In his 2002 year review column for the Irish Independent he highlighted this importance of this event for him: "Few things in golf outside the Majors would give me more satisfaction than to claim the top prize there." Not many other players in the top-20 in the World Rankings would play in a Challenge Tour event (Northern Ireland Masters in September) to support golf in his home country. He has the motivation and the game to win this event at a cantor.

Peter Lonard to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Not the same motivations for Lonard, but he should also fancy his chances after a strong showing last week. He did eventually finish 59th, but had a nightmare final round and motivation was certainly missing after a poor start. He had been as high as 3rd on the leaderboard on Saturday. To his links credentials, he can add a 5th place at Ballybunion in the 2000 Irish Open and an 8th place finish in 1998 at Druids Glen and has been in great form. This looks a big price against this fairly weak field with some notable players bound to suffer from being in the final groups on Sunday.

Luke Donald to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and BlueSq
Donald didn't make it to the weekend let alone the final groups, but having been paired with Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia for the first two rounds, it would have been a very difficult task anyway. He has no professional experience of links golf other than the British Open in the last four years, but he has shown himself to be an extremely able player in the United States and should certainly be able to compete against this field. Would be at far lower odds on a tight parkland course, but 50/1 is still too high.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Luke Donald to beat Greg Owen -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Will add another play on Donald against the out-of-sorts Owen. Since winning the British Masters in June, Owen has missed three cuts of four and finished 61st on the other occasion. His record in this event is not too impressive either: he missed the cut at Druids Glen in 1999 and Fota Island in 2001 and finished 45th at Ballybunion in 2000. Donald may never have played in Ireland and have limited links experience, but he is a far better player.

Jarrod Moseley to beat Mark Foster -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Looking for a letdown from Foster after his excellent British Open. He had missed his three previous cuts after returning from an operation to remove an in-growing hair in his back, but having never reached the weekend in any of his previous four Tour events in Ireland, there could be another reason for a poor weekend from the Englishman. Moseley was 3rd in this event in 1999 at Druids Glen and showed his abilities at links golf when finishing 1st in the Open qualifier at Princes last week. He may have missed the cut in the Championship proper, but should atone this week.

Peter Lonard to beat Paul McGinley -135 @ Carib(UK) and Aces
Lonard will certainly want to atone for his poor final round and is the subject of two further plays this week. Opposing McGinley is easy. He did finish 28th last week, but his best finish in his last ten starts has been 20th and that form will not get him back into the Ryder Cup team. Nor is his record in Ireland particularly impressive and while he was around when this event was originally played at Portmarnock, he missed the cut in 1989 and finished 55th in 1990. Can't see much improvement this week.

Peter Lonard to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ William Hill and Ladbrokes
Poulter is not a links player. He has won in Italy, Morocco and Wales on inland, parkland courses. He is far too attacking for this type of course and made the cut on the mark last week. Although he is a good player to have for outrights, this looks like being one of those 'other' weeks for Poulter. Five Dimes are much closer to the mark with Lonard at -135 in this matchup.

Adding (1.5 units):

Peter Fowler to beat Andrew Oldcorn -110 @ BetInternet
Opposing a player who finished 28th last week, but it was his 2nd best finish of the year in 11 starts. He never played well at Portmarnock from 1986 to 1990 and his overall record on link courses is not particularly impressive. Fowler played well in the Open qualifier at Cinque Ports and finished ahead of Oldcorn in the Championship proper, as he has done in five of their seven common events this year.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Luke Donald -120 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
Peter O'Malley to beat Mark Roe -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Padraig Harrington to beat Peter Lonard -150 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +5.25 units

Olazabal/Donald WON by 1
O'Malley/Roe WON by 5
Harrington/Lonard LOST by 8

Mid-point update:

Donald/Owen Trails by 3
Moseley/Foster WON by 8
Lonard/McGinley Leads by 1
Lonard/Poulter Leads by 2
Fowler/Oldcorn WON by 6

Clarke 41st
Lonard 6th
Donald 22nd

Got lucky with Donald dropping three shots in the last two holes to fluke the win in the top 18-hole play of the day. Surprised Olly didn't do better - he had finished 4th, 2nd, 6th and 1st on his four previous visits to Portmarnock. It did harm Donald's chances with the outrights, but Lonard is handily placed. Apart from a problem with losing golf balls en route to a quadruple bogey at the 8th hole on Thursday, Lonard has been extremely impressive so far and should have a good weekend.

3rd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Peter O'Malley to beat Luke Donald -107 @ Five Dimes
Marten Lafeber to beat Nick Dougherty -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Greg Turner to beat Christian Cevaer -120 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +2.90 units

O'Malley/Donald LOST by 3
Lafeber/Dougherty WON by 6
Turner/Cevaer WON by 1

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Marten Lafeber to beat Simon Khan -112 @ Five Dimes
Peter Baker to beat Mark Pilkington -118 @ Five Dimes
David Park to beat Jean Hugo -118 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 0-3-0; -5.22 units

Lafeber/Khan LOST by 2
Baker/Pilkington LOST by 3
Park/Hugo LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +3.95 units

Donald/Owen LOST by 7
Lonard/McGinley WON by 5
Lonard/Poulter WON by 4

18-holes: 4-5-0; +2.93 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Clarke 47th
Lonard 7th
Donald 23rd

Poor final day, though still a profitable event. Lonard threatened to secure the title until his last seven holes when his 3-over-par run even took him outside the place finishes. Not much change elsewhere, so glad to have made the money on the first three days.