Italian Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Ricardo Gonzalez to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Impressive performance last week by Gonzalez to finish in the top-20 after an eleven-week layoff and he improved considerably by the weekend. He is a winner on Tour and that was also on a course in the Alps (Crans-sur-Sierre, 2001), so there is every reason to expect a further improvement this week, particularly against such a weak field.

Charl Schwartzel to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Very surprising price as the next best is 22/1! After a rocky time travelling on the European Tour, he has certainly found his feet in the past month. He finished 5th on the Challenge Tour three weeks ago before finishing 16th in Portugal (he had been 6th entering the final round) and the finishing 6th last week. With few of the current field having played in the 1997 Italian Open on this course, the rookie should not be at a disadvantage this week and may even finish strongly this time.

Peter Fowler to win 40/1 e.w. @ Easybets and Centrebet
Was very sorely tempted by the 100/1 on offer for Lafeber (Eurobet), but have opted for the more consistent (this year, at least) Fowler. He has carried over his resurgent form on the Australasian Tour to Europe with top-10 finishes in his last two events and has shot an over-par round only once in his last four events. His history in Italy is rather erratic - three top-10s and five missed cuts in his last ten visits to this country - but it does make him ideal for outrights and he is certainly playing well enough to win in this company.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Mathias Gronberg -125 @ Easybets
Easybets have underestimated the young South African in their outright market and, as expected, have done the same with their matchups. Gronberg did play here in 1997, but having missed five of eight cuts this season, is hardly in the same form as Schwartzel.

Peter O'Malley to beat Jean Hugo -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
There is a case for avoiding a rusty O'Malley here - his last outing, a 6th place finish in Australia, was eight weeks ago - Hugo is definitely worth opposing outside Southern Africa. He had an excellent season on the Sunshine Tour, but in his two starts since the Sunshine Tour Championship he finished 46th in the weak Madeira Island Open and missed the cut in an even weaker Challenge Tour event. O'Malley also holds a 10-1-0 h2h lead over the past 12 months.

Marten Lafeber to beat Simon Khan -111 @ BetandWin
Both have broken stretches of missed cuts this month so little difference between them in current form, but siding with Lafeber who is simply the better player and has a respectable record in Italy (Khan has missed two of four Challenge Tour events in this country).

James Kingston to beat Andrew Marshall -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
No comparison in terms of form. Marshall has a missed cut and a 57th place finish in two events in April; Kingston has one top-10, a 32nd place finish last week and had two top-3 finishes before that. He has yet to lose to Marshall in eight common events over the past year.

Roger Wessels to beat Ben Mason -111 @ BetandWin
Could quite easily be over by the cut as both have missed more cuts this year than they would like, but Wessels leads 3-1-0 h2h and can point to good form in Italy on this Tour. He finished 7th in his last Italian Open (2000) and was 12th on this course in 1997.

1st round plays (1.5 units):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -112 @ Five Dimes
Ian Poulter to beat Pierre Fulke -110 @ Five Dimes
Simon Khan to beat Hennie Otto +115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-2-0; -1.60 units

Schwartzel/Gonzalez LOST by 5
Poulter/Fulke LOST by 6
Khan/Otto WON by 3

2nd round plays (1.5 units):

Gary Clark to beat Mattias Eliasson -118 @ Five Dimes
Tobias Dier to beat Erol Simsek -118 @ Five Dimes
Roger Wessels to beat Ben Mason -115 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 0-2-1; -3.54 units

Clark/Eliasson LOST by 1
Dier/Simsek LOST by 2
Wessels/Mason TIED (Push)

Mid-point update:

Schwartzel/Gronberg Trails by 2
O'Malley/Hugo Leads by 8
Lafeber/Khan LOST by 5
Kingston/Marshall LOST by 3
Wessels/Mason All Square

Gonzalez 7th
Schwartzel 30th
Fowler 48th

Poor tournament at this stage and a sorry loss on Dier today who dropped three shots in his last two holes. Will need Gonzalez to have a good weekend to get anything out of this event.

3rd round play (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -147 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-0-0; -2.21 units

Montgomerie/Gonzalez LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -2.59 units

Schwartzel/Gronberg LOST by 18
O'Malley/Hugo WON by 16
Wessels/Mason WON by 10

18-holes: 1-5-1; -7.36 units

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Gonzalez 2nd
Schwartzel 63rd
Fowler 23rd

Big loss on the event through some poor 18-hole plays, but Gonzalez could have covered them. But on two occasions he missed 3-foot return par putts on the front nine when in the lead and he finished two shots behind Gronberg. Will side with more dependable players in the next three big events this month.