Madeira Island Open

Outright play (0.75 units):

John Bickerton to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
A very obvious selection! Bickerton has played at Santo da Serra in each of the six years that this event has been held there and has finished in the top-15 on every occasion. Course experience is important this week as the course is set on the side of a mountain ... it is an acquired taste! With finishes of 20th and 8th in the two Middle East events, he looks set for another good finish this week. Not sure he will finally secure his first Tour win, but if it is to occur anywhere, it will be here.

Adding (0.75 units):

Bradley Dredge to win 14/1 e.w. @ Tote
Simply the best player in the field and everyone has to win their first event sometime! Have looked at top-5 odds for many others, but there are very few in this field who have top-5 finishes to their name, let alone look like securing one this week. With course experience vital - he finished 7th on his last visit in 2000 - and having finished in the top-10 in four of seven visits to Portugal, he should be suited. Having continued his excellent late-season form of last year in the first few months of 2003, he is difficult to ignore at these odds.

Mikko Ilonen to finish in the top-four 12.5/1 @ SIA
The 2000 British Amateur Champion is a player who has threatened many times to live up to his potential - top-10 in the 2001 British Open, 3rd in the 2002 Wales Open, 6th in the Dubai Desert Classic, but has yet to put a string of good performances together. He may yet prove himself this year, but at least he does look a player who can finish high up the leaderboard even though he is just as likely to miss the cut. With a top-25 finish on this course last year and a top-10 finish in the Portuguese Open a month later, maybe this could be one of his good weeks. Taking the place-only option as apart from the rain-affected Portuguese Open last year, his best finishes have all been courtesy of storming final rounds when there has been a pressure.

Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Santiago Luna to beat Robert-Jan Derksen -125 @ Easybets
Did consider Luna for the outrights, so having passed over him for that market, will gladly double-up on him with the matchups. He is a former winner of this title (1995) when it was held on another course, but his form at Santo da Serra is impressive and consistent. In five visits, he has finished no lower than 34th and was 5th last year. The winner of the Hassan II Trophy in December looks set for another good finish. Can't imagine the same from Derksen who will surely suffer a fallout from his career-changing win in Dubai. With three missed cuts and a best finish of 41st in five starts on this course, Derksen could very easily be back home at the weekend revelling in his newly acquired fortune.

Santiago Luna to beat Andrew Marshall +100 @ BetInternet
Marshall has been in excellent form this season with four top-20 finishes in five starts, but this is a very peculiar and infuriating course. He has played it once and missed the cut on that occasion. This is a week for course specialists and Luna has a decisive edge.

Simon Khan to beat Jean-Francois Lucquin -125 @ Five Dimes
Marked contrast in form between these two. Khan can boast two top-10 finishes this season, while Lucquin can boast only two cuts made from six starts, though one was a top-10 finish in the Singapore Masters. Similarly, Khan has a best finish of 15th in two visits to Santo da Serra, while Lucquin has a high of 46th. Just too much in favour of the Englishman.

Mid-point update:

Luna/Derksen Leads by 3
Luna/Marshall trails by 2
Khan/Lucquin LOST by 16

Bickerton withdrew
Dredge 2nd
Ilonen 8th

Weather-disrupted event meant there were a lot of withdrawals, including Bickerton, and scores in the 90s, which Khan almost achieved! Plenty of opportunity for a decent return from the remaining selections, so could be a good weekend yet.

Final update:

Matchups: 0-3-0; -2.63 units

Luna/Derksen LOST by 1
Luna/Marshall LOST by 2

Outrights: 1-2; +4.80 units

Dredge 1st
Ilonen 8th

Easy eight-shot victory for Dredge after he had stormed to a 60 in the 3rd round. The 2nd best Saturday score was a 67! Ilonen pushed hard for a place win, but bogeys at the last two holes ended that hope. A little disappointed that Luna finished 7th, but still lost both his matches. At least Dredge's win ensured a profitable event.