Telefonica Open de Madrid

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to win 20/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Will hardly ever pass up these odds for Casey in Europe. He may not have won since May, but apart from a missed cut in the harsh conditions of links golf in late September for the Dunhill Links Championship, he has continued his good form through to the late season. In his last appearance he recorded a top-10 finish against a very strong field in the American Express Championship. With course experience on his side as well, he is certainly one of the strongest challengers for the title this week.

Brian Davis to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
There are few better players on Spanish courses than the Londoner. He has finished in the top-3 in each of the last two years here and finished 4th in his last event on Spanish soil, the Canarias Open de Espana in April. He has continued to show good form recently with top-15 finishes in five of his last six European starts and should be relishing the return to Club de Campo. I expected to see 22/1 at the very most.

Niclas Fasth to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Paddy Power
Like Casey, Fasth missed the cut in the Dunhill Links Championship and it rather spoiled an otherwise impressive end of season run. Since finishing 10th in the PGA Championship in August, he hasn't played much but has largely contended when he has been playing. He finished 3rd in the German Masters last month, for example, and was 16th in the American Express Championship. This field is a very pale shadow of the one assembled in Georgia and having already gained course experience at Club de Campo, he could take a big step towards clinching his Ryder Cup place this week.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

John Bickerton to beat Simon Dyson -111 @ Stan James [3 units]
Bickerton has finished ahead of Dyson in each of the last two years here and leads him 14-3-1 h2h over the past year (6-2-0 in the past three months) so there seems little reason for these two to be on equal odds.

Angel Cabrera to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -111 @ Ladbrokes [3 units]
Just a big difference in quality between these two Argentinians. Cabrera has finished 12th and 10th here in his last two visits, Gonzalez missed the cut on his only previous event at Club de Campo.

Gary Evans to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -118 @ Expekt
Evans finished in the top-20 in the same year that Gonzalez played here and is in better form. He can count four top-10 finishes in his last ten starts whereas Gonzalez can count only one top-20 finish in his last ten.

Nick O'Hern to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -123 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
O'Hern finished 6th on his last outing (Dunhill Links Championship) and has finished in the top-20 in six of his last eight starts. That is much better form that Gonzalez. O'Hern also finished 14th last year, so should be expected to finish in the top-20 again this week.

Nick O'Hern to beat Raymond Russell -111 @ Stan James [3 units]
A top-20 finish should easily be enough to beat Russell who has missed the cut and withdrawn after an opening 77 in the last two years here. He comes off a missed cut and only two top-20 finishes in his last ten starts so should feature little this week.

Nick Faldo to beat Ian Woosnam -111 @ Stan James [3 units]
A missed cut and a post-first-round withdrawal also represent Woosnam's last two efforts on this course. He has been making cuts recently, but Faldo looked in much better shape at the Dunhill Links Championship and stills harbours hopes of making the Ryder Cup team next year.

David Howell to beat Carlos Rodiles -111 @ Stan James
Thankfully Howell has taken a couple of weeks off. He had been in great form before travelling to Georgia for the American Express Championship with finishes of 11th, 8th, 8th, 8th and 6th in the previous five weeks. A creditable top-30 finish was followed by a tired 50th place in the Dutch Open when he finished behind Rodiles. Howell is the much better player when confident and should beat the home player now that he is refreshed.

Niclas Fasth to beat David Howell -110 @ Bet365
That said, Fasth is still a much brighter prospect than Howell and should retain his place in the Ryder Cup team next year. He also leads Howell 7-2-0 h2h on the European Tour over the past year and is predicted to have a very good week.
(also available at Expekt)

Niclas Fasth to beat Robert Karlsson -125 @ Stan James [3 units]
Can find little reason to support Karlsson this week. He has two missed cuts and two 50th place finishes in his last four starts and finished 70th, mc, mc in his last three visits to Club de Campo. Should not trouble the outright selection.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-6-0; -9.62 units

Bickerton/Dyson LOST by 5
Cabrera/Gonzalez LOST by 10
Evans/Gonzalez LOST (Evans wd)
O'Hern/Gonzalez LOST by 1
O'Hern/Russell WON by 20
Faldo/Woosnam LOST by 4
Howell/Rodiles LOST by 3
Fasth/Howell WON by 5
Fasth/Karlsson WON by 1

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Casey 2nd
Davis 20th
Fasth 15th

Another losing week on the 2003 European Tour, but it had been promising for so long. Casey led from start to almost the finish, holding a four-shot lead with one round to play. It took eight birdies in twelve holes from Gonzalez to tip him by a single shot and that also meant the losses on the matchups were also sizeable: O'Hern finished alongside Casey in 2nd place but still lost his matchup. One more week before thankfully this Tour's season draws to a close ... 2004 can only get better!