Nordic Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Brian Davis to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
Disappointed as a selection last week, but still retained at higher odds and against a much weaker field. As argued last week, he has had six top-10 finishes since the Tour came to Europe, including 6th at the British Open last month. Very few in this week's field can compete with this form. Thomas Bjorn obviously can, but the media pressure must be intense with this being the first European Tour event to be staged in Denmark.

Alastair Forsyth to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Paddy Power
Large price for someone so in-form when they last played. Forsyth did finish down in 59th place at the British Open, but he had been 4th until he had a torrid time on the Saturday. He had also been 2nd twice and had one further top-10 finish in his four events before Royal St. George's so his 36-hole form was no surprise. This is his first outing since and if he can play as well as he did in June/July, then he will be a very serious contender for the title.

David Lynn to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
The leader after 36 and 54 holes in the Irish Open two weeks ago, Lynn faltered in the last round and finished 4th. It was a virtual repeat of his performance in Dubai Desert Classic in March when he also led after 36 and 54 holes and eventually finished 3rd. Obviously not a proven winner, hence the place-only play, but he does get into contention on a frequent basis and on a variety of types of course. Also, his only Tour win was in the 1997 Danish Open when it was a Challenge Tour event, so this could be another strong performance from the Englishman, albeit for only 54 holes!

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

John Bickerton to beat Sven Struver -105 @ BetandWin
Struver may have found some form of late with finishes of 6th in the Irish Open and 16th in the Scandinavian Masters, finishing ahead of Bickerton both times, and he even finished ahead of him by a shot in their previous event, the Scottish Open, but those the only times in the last year (17 common events) that Bickerton has not beaten Struver. Taking the better player who also finished 18th in a Challenge Tour event on this course in 1994.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Sven Struver -139 @ Easybets and William Hill
Struver also finished ahead of Kjeldsen in the Scottish Open (by 2 shots), but that is the only time he has done so in the last three months. In that time, Kjeldsen has won the Diageo Championship and will receive strong local support this week. Like Bickerton, he also has course experience from his Challenge Tour days.

David Lynn to beat Nick Dougherty -115 @ WWTS
A good performance from Dougherty last week following his diagnosis and thus treatment for glandular fever. It broke a long spell of poor golf for obvious reasons, but "Little Nick" has a long way to go to be a consistent player and shouldn't beat the outright selection who won the 1997 Danish Open on this course.

Stephen Gallacher to beat Marcus Havret -149 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Large difference in form between these two. Gallacher may no longer be making top-10s (he made three in a row in June), but his missed cut last week was his first in eight starts. Havret has missed three of his last five with a best finish of 50th. Gallacher also played in the 1997 Danish Open on this course and finished 8th behind Lynn to justify the price.

Mid-point update:

Bickerton/Struver Leads by 4
Kjeldsen/Struver Leads by 1
Lynn/Dougherty Leads by 8
Gallacher/Havret Trails by 5

Davis 5th
Forsyth mc
Lynn 2nd

Very nice position at the cut with two strong challengers for the title and in the only matchup that is the trailing the opponent is an inexperienced tournament leader. The leaderboard is very packed, so plenty will happen over the next 36 holes.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +2.27 units

Bickerton/Struver WON by 6
Kjeldsen/Struver WON by 7
Lynn/Dougherty WON by 7
Gallacher/Havret TIED (Lost)

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Davis 6th
Lynn 43rd

Disappointing return from a very promising event. Davis had held the lead at one stage during the final round, but failed to hole anything on the back nine and dropped out of the place positions. Lynn's final round fade occurred 9 holes earlier than usual, while it was a frustrating loss on the Gallacher matchup. He finished 3rd and I expected Havret to miss the cut rather than finish on the same mark - ties lose at Sportingbet which sums up this event.