Qatar Masters

Outright plays (0.75 units):

Phillip Price to win 25/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Impressive performance last week from Price to finish in the top-10 against a very much stronger field. Like McGinley, the Ryder Cup seemed to take a lot out of him after his famous win against Mickelson and he didn't finish the 2002 season in particularly good form. But McGinley has started 2003 in better form and so should Price. He did finish 2nd to Paul Lawrie in 1999 and looks likely to contend this week again.

Soren Hansen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Certainly one of the better players in this field and winner in 2002 (Irish Open), Hansen has been playing more consistently in the last few months after a dip in form following his win. He comes into this event from a closing 68 in Dubai and his greens in regulation stats suggest that he is playing well (76% this year vs. 66% last year). If he can find a putting stroke then he can certainly continue his fine form at Doha (two top-15 finishes in the last three years).

Adding (0.75 units):

Greg Owen to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Was tempted by Donaldson, but with concern that he has never played Doha until this week, has sided with Owen again for the 3rd selection. This is simply too high a price for a player who was 2nd at the cut in the Johnnie Walker Classic and 7th at the cut last week. He just needs to putt better and stay with the leaders over the weekend to make a difference here. Finished 8th two years ago. Would have preferred place-only, but best price is only 10/1 so will stick with each-way. Well, if Robert-Jan Derksen can win an event ...

Matchup plays (0.75 units):

John Bickerton to beat Mark Foster -110 @ BlueSq
Opposing Foster who did win the Dunhill Championship and finished 13th last week, but has shown few other signs of any form in the last few months. With a missed cut here last year, Foster looks opposable so siding with a player who has finished 4th twice in the last three years at Doha and was similarly placed in the top-20 last week. A 14-4-0 h2h record in Bickerton's favour is also compelling.

Steve Webster to beat Mark Foster -111 @ William Hill
Webster looks like anything but a consistent player, but that is what he has been over the past few months. In his last nine events he has missed the cut twice, but on the seven other occasions he has finished between 24th and 38th every time. With five cuts made from five visits to Doha, including two top-15 finishes in the last three years, Webster looks a decent player to side with for the matchups this week.

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Peter Fowler -111 @ BetandWin
Fowler has shown some good form in Australia over the past few months, but five events in six weeks across two continents is a taxing schedule. He has played well here in the past, but a repeat of last week's 52nd place is more likely. Jimenez finished ahead of him last week in his first start of 2003 and he should only improve this week. In the past twelve months, Jimenez has beaten Fowler eight times without reply in Europe so it looks a good place to back this side of the matchup.

Adding (0.75 units):

Mikko Ilonen to beat Charl Schwartzel -120 @ Pinnacle
Opposing Schwartzel yet again. He has never played this course before this week and played poorly to miss the cut last week. That makes three missed cuts in his six events since he shot to prominence in the South African Open. Ilonen has improved considerably on this Tour since he secured a 3rd place finish in the Wales Open last year and was 6th last week in Dubai. He was ten shots ahead of Schwartzel at the cut. Having played this course last year, he looks to be far better equipped to be earning a cheque this week.

Mid-point update:

Bickerton/Foster Trails by 1
Webster/Foster LOST (Webster withdrew injured)
Jimenez/Fowler LOST by 8
Ilonen/Scwartzel WON by 2

Price 30th
Hansen 6th
Owen 21st

Weather-affected event so would be very happy to finish it break-even, though not looking likely at the moment. Three chances of a place finish, but anything can happen when virtually two full rounds are played on the last day.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-2-0; -0.17 units

Bickerton/Foster WON by 4

Outrights: 0-3; -2.25 units

Price 24th
Hansen 14th
Owen 14th

Bickerton had a good weekend to limit some of the losses, but even though the three outright selections did have good runs over the weekend, there was always quite a gap between them and the leaders.