Scandinavian Masters

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Fredrik Jacobson to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Victor Chandler
Without doubt the most in-form European player at the moment and justifiably heads the market. He has finished in the top-10 in four of his last five events which include two majors. His earnings in that time have been enough to earn him temporary membership of the PGA Tour. But this is more than passing form; he won the last event of 2002, the Hong Kong Open and after missing ten weeks of golf after injuring his wrist, he his won first event back in action, the Algarve Open de Portugal in April. He has course experience and will be able to count on a very large crowd to cheer him on. Wouldn't go much lower, but 14/1 seems a fair price.

Brian Davis to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
He may have only won once on Tour (2000 Open de Espana), but he has become an extremely consistent contender over the past couple of years. Since the Tour came to Europe, he has secured six top-10 finishes, including 6th at the British Open two weeks ago and two 2nd place finishes in the Portuguese events. He was also 9th on this course in 1999, so there seems every reason to expect him to be in the frame yet again this week.

Bradley Dredge to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and UKBetting
Dredge has become another single Tour event winner who contends on a very regular basis. He had eight top-10 finishes in the last five months of the 2002 season and finally made the breakthrough in the Madeira Island Open when he finished eight shots ahead of Brian Davis in 2nd place. He was rather guilty of being over-golfed thereafter, but has had two top-10 finishes in his last four starts after finally taking a two-week break. He can certainly win against this unusually weak field for this event.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ BetInternet
Opposing a player who will surely struggle to lift himself after winning last week and after his first six months of the year had been so bad. Jacobson leads him 3-0-0 h2h in Europe alone over the last three months and is a worthy favourite. A very common matchup, but few have them at pick'em.

Niclas Fasth to beat Robert Karlsson -133 @ NordicBet
Good week from Karlsson last week, but it was his first top-10 finish since the ANZ Championship in February. No surprise, then, that Fasth has a 5-0-0 h2h lead over the past three months and finished well ahead of his compatriot when this course was last used in 2001.

Niclas Fasth to beat Greg Owen -111 @ Ladbrokes
Owen also had a good week last week, but apart from sporadic glimpses of form when he does secure top-10 finishes, he struggles to make the cut each week, as on this course on his last two visits. Fasth leads 6-0-0 h2h over the past three months and should continue that run in his home country.

Adding (1.5 units):

Richard Green to beat Arjun Atwal -125 @ Pinnacle
Opposing Atwal who continues to struggle when in Europe and has never played Barseback until this week. Green has lost his form a little over the past month, but he is the better player and has made the cut on both previous visits.

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Peter Hedblom -120 @ Bet365
No comparison between these two. Hedblom secured his 2nd runners-up spot last week since the Canarias Open de Espana in April, but in the intervening period, he had four missed cuts, a 28th, a 73rd and a 78th place finish. Similar story on this course: before his 9th place finish in 2001, he had missed the cut twice and finished 56th on the other occasion. Jacquelin had five straight top-20 finishes before the British Open and even after an opening 77, he still made the cut at Royal St. George's.

No 1st round plays.

Mid-point update:

Jacobson/Campbell Leads by 1
Fasth/Karlsson LOST by 9
Fasth/Owen LOST by 5
Green/Atwal LOST by 8
Jacquelin/Hedblom LOST by 11

Jacobson 7th
Davis 35th
Dredge 56th

Not a good tournament so far with only one matchup remaining. Really need Jacobson to have a good weekend!

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Marten Lafeber to beat Nick Dougherty -123 @ Five Dimes
David Gilford to beat Arjun Atwal -105 @ Five Dimes
Greg Turner to beat Sven Struver -128 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +1.08 units

Lafeber/Dougherty WON by 5
Gilford/Atwal WON by 1
Turner/Struver LOST by 6

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Peter Hedblom -105 @ Five Dimes
Gary Orr to beat Sven Struver -118 @ Five Dimes
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Charl Schwartzel -130 @ Five Dimes
David Gilford to beat Arjun Atwal -105 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 3-1-0; +2.73 units

Jacobson/Hedblom WON by 2
Orr/Struver LOST by 3
Jimenez/Schwartzel WON by 5
Gilford/Atwal WON by 8

Final update:

Matchups: 1-4-0; -5.84 units

Jacobson/Campbell WON by 2

18-holes: 5-2-0; +3.81 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Jacobson 8th
Davis 53rd
Dredge 57th

Hard to imagine that my most profitable record for outrights had been European Tour up to this season. Another week, another struggle to find a winner on this Tour in 2003.