Scottish Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
A big price for a player who has won this event two years ago and finished in the top-10 in four of the last five years here (plus 14th last year). He may have suffered a final round collapse last week, but he had been the 1st round leader so he is in good form as he has been all season. He is still searching his first win of 2003, but with six top-4 finishes in fifteen starts, he has been getting very close.

Paul Casey to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Easybets
No such problems for Casey who has won twice this year already. Take out his missed cut in the U.S. Open on a course that did not suit his game and his worst finish since his opening event of the year has been 18th. He finished 11th last year and should surpass that mark on a course that rewards his length off the tee and excellent ball-striking.

Justin Rose to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
One of England's other young guns took the weekend off last week, but it was hardly surprising as he had missed three of his previous four cuts at The K Club. This week he returns to a course on he finished 5th last year (he had been 1st round leader and was never lower than 5th) so he will have higher expectations of himself this week. Having followed up his 5th place finish in the U.S. Open with 3rd place in the Open de France, his swing refinements from David Leadbetter have certainly paid dividends and he should go close to securing his first title of 2003.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Bradley Dredge to beat Jarmo Sandelin -139 @ William Hill
Dredge is by far the better player and quite a bit more consistent as well. He holds a 11-4-3 h2h lead over Sandelin in the past 12 months and has made the cut in the past two years here whereas Sandelin has not.

Niclas Fasth to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ Pinnacle
Expecting a decent week from Fasth. Not one for the outrights, but a consistent player nonetheless. He leads Leaney 4-0-0 h2h in European events over the past three months and there appear to be signs that Leaney's game is starting to show fatigue following his U.S. Open exploits. He has a very good links game, so he may well coast and concentrate on next week if he doesn't start this event too well.

Alastair Forsyth to beat Mathias Gronberg -118 @ Expekt
With two runners-up spots in the last three weeks, there is no doubting the Scot's current form. The first of those 2nd place finishes was at Gleneagles and he will be relishing the chance to feature in his home country again. His record on this course is not spectacular, but it is better than Gronberg who is  dangerous opponent, but still misses too many cuts.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ BetandWin
Westwood finally achieved a top-10 finish last week and he had at least made his last three cuts and had won previously on that course, but it does not compare to Kjeldsen who finished 7th and 11th in the two weeks before winning the Diageo Championship at Gleneagles last month. Westwood did play well on this course in the 1990s, but he previous rediscoveries of form has proved to be very brief and this course will certainly test his ball-striking ability.

No 1st round plays.

Mid-point update:

Dredge/Sandelin Leads by 2
Fasth/Leaney All Square
Forsyth/Gronberg WON by 12
Kjeldsen/Westwood LOST by 5

Goosen withdrew
Casey 44th
Rose mc

Nothing much to cheer so far. Casey needed a good finish to prevent a sweep of outright selections missing the cut and the remaining matchups are close. Need some good 18-hole plays over the weekend to turn this into a profitable event.

3rd round play (1.5 units):

Peter Lonard to beat Phillip Price -108 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-0-1; +0.00 units

Lonard/Price TIED (Push)

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Tim Clark to beat David Howell -105 @ Five Dimes
Nicolas Colsaerts to beat Charl Schwartzel -103 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 0-2-0; -3.12 units

Clark/Howell LOST by 4
Colsaerts/Schwartzel LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +2.83 units

Dredge/Sandelin WON by 11
Fasth/Leaney WON by 2

18-holes: 0-2-1; -3.12 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Casey 10th

Loss on the event despite the matchups. Casey did have three good rounds this week, but his 74 on Friday took him right out of contention for a top-5 finish.