Volvo Masters

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Adam Scott to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
Have paired Scott and Casey as selections in the past and will continue to do so at these odds. Both are capable of winning in any field and have done so several times this year. After a couple of indifferent events, Scott seemed to be playing much better last week when securing a top-10 finish. He also likes playing in Spain as his last four finishes in this country would show: 3rd, 2nd, 7th (this course) and 10th. Can't see him outside the top-10 this week either.

Paul Casey to win 22/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Same with Casey. The only concern would be the fact that he led from the first round until the middle of the last round and ended up one shot shy of Gonzalez. But it is clear from his comments that he blamed himself as he claimed to have taken 36 putts in the final round which is poor by any pro's standard (the official records show 32, but that does not include putts from the fringe, for example). Should he opposed this week? History suggests not. He similarly had a strong lead in the Heineken Classic after two rounds, but faltered under a strong challenge from Els, Faldo and Lonard over the weekend. His response to letting the field back into the tournament was to win the ANZ Championship the following week and totally dominate the event for the first three days. He showed he has the ability and mental strength to rebound from faults such as the ones he showed last week.

Niclas Fasth to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
Was tempted to opt for Nick O'Hern at 66/1 BetInternet (four places) or these odds for a top-five finish at SkyBet, but settled on Fasth instead. He has shown very good form of late as outlined when a selection last week and finished very strongly 69-65 over the weekend to finish 15th when the weather had abated. If he can carry that momentum into this week then another strong finish is likely and having finished in the top-5 in 19% of the European events in the last three years, these look decent odds.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Carlos Rodiles to beat Nick Dougherty -135 @ Five Dimes
Dougherty seems to have still not fully recovered from glandular fever and apart from a 2nd place finish in the Scandinavian Masters in July, he has had a torrid year (no other top-10 finishes). Rodiles shot 83 in the 2nd round last year and still finished ahead of Dougherty; he should do it with greater ease this time around.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -114 @ Centrebet
Were it not for last week's win, 2003 would also have been a torrid year for Gonzalez - he has had just one other top-10 finish. Apart from the standard policy of opposing last week's winner, support for Jacobson comes, for example, in the fact that his last missed cut in Europe was in the 2002 British Open!

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Maarten Lafeber -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Lafeber is another player who makes a lot of cuts - he has made his last 12 - but is simply not in the same class of Jacobson who had three top-10 finishes in a month on the PGA Tour in mid-summer and one of those was the U.S. Open. He also has a convincing 8-2-0 h2h lead over Lafeber in Europe over the last twelve months.

David Howell to beat Robert Karlsson -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposing Karlsson who has certainly lost his form, even though that only last two weeks at the start of September. Howell was playing some of the best golf of his career in that month and looks far more likely to be a contender this week.

Nick O'Hern to beat Robert Karlsson -118 @ Expekt
Opted not to take him in the outrights, but have at least found one opportunity in the matchups. While Karlsson has been struggling, O'Hern has been playing some of his best golf in Europe. Returning to golf after a two-month layoff, he has finished in the top-20 in each of his four events and has finished 6th and 2nd in his last two starts. No course form, but playing much better than the Swede.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Final update:

Matchups: 5-0-0; +7.50 units

Rodiles/Dougherty WON by 36
Jacobson/Gonzalez WON by 18
Jacobson/Lafeber WON by 24
Howell/Karlsson WON by 3
O'Hern/Karlsson WON by 7

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Scott 10th
Casey 13th
Fasth 31st

After such a disappointing 2003 season on this Tour, it is very pleasing to finish the season with a sweep in the matchups and by some very large margins as well! Of the outrights, Scott did look like he might secure a top-5 finish, but the others never did. This Tour will definitely be downgraded from 1.5 units per play to 1 unit next year!