Celtic Manor Resort Wales Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Bradley Dredge to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, Victor Chandler and UKBetting
Certainly the best Welsh prospect at the moment and had this tournament been hold a month ago, then he would have been a much shorter price. He has missed his last two cuts, but given that this is his seventh straight week of competitive golf - he missed the Italian Open but won a Euro Pro Tour event in Wales that week - it is just as well that he has had the last two weekends off. Top-10 finish last year and unless the burden of expectation becomes too much, he should at least match that performance.

Michael Campbell to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Having failed to reach the weekend in his last seven events, Campbell was never going to be considered for last week's event, but all those events had been in the United States. His decision to concentrate more on the PGA Tour has certainly backfired and he may well return more to the European Tour. He had been playing well before his PGA Tour season began and did look good at times last week on his first 2003 European start, finishing inside the top-20 for greens in regulation which will be important this week. No course form, but these look big odds for a player who has finished in the top-5 in a third of his events in Europe in the past three years. Just a question of confidence.

Steen Tinning to win 125/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Another leap of faith, I suppose. He has missed the cut in this event for the past two years, but he did win the inaugural event in 2000. Similar story ever since ... he misses a lot of cuts, but he won the Open de Madrid in October last year and opened with a top-10 finish in the opening event of 2003 (the Dunhill Championship). He then struggled, but has shown much better form this month with a top-20 finish in the Italian Open and has made the cut against very strong fields in the last two events. Just a very large price for someone who has won on this course recently and has won again since.

Others that made the short-list: Hansen, S (66/1), Gonzalez (40/1) and Bickerton (66/1).

Matchup play (1.5 units):

John Bickerton to beat Jose Manuel Lara -118 @ Expekt
Bickerton has been playing well of late with top-25 finishes against two high quality fields in the past two weeks and returns to a course on which he finished 2nd last year. Should see a good performance this week and though Lara has had some good finishes in the past couples of months, he is far from consistent and trails Bickerton 1-4-0 h2h over the past three months.

Adding (1.5 units):

John Bickerton to beat Martin Maritz -111 @ William Hill and SIA
Siding with Bickerton against the big South African who has struggled to transfer his home form to Europe. He did manage a top-5 finish in the Italian Open four weeks ago and in this event last year (behind Bickerton), but in 19 common events in Europe, he has finished ahead of the Englishman just twice.

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Andrew Coltart -118 @ Easybets
Coltart has an advantage with some course experience and has been making cuts of late, but that is largely the limit of his achievements at the moment. Gonzalez has been competing for titles and that is a big difference between the two. If Gonzalez could hit 50% of fairways this week, he would be very strong candidate to lift this title.

David Park to beat Simon Khan -115 @ Five Dimes
Both in very good form with a number of top-10 finishes apiece, but Park leads the h2h 4-2-0 over the past three months, finished ahead of Khan in the Englishman's only previous visit to the Celtic Manor Resort and have the added spur of competing in his home Open this week. He will be hopeful of achieving his best finish in this event.

Anthony Wall to beat Charl Schwartzel +103 @ Five Dimes
When Schwartzel's good, he's good, when he's bad ... Barring another storming week from the South African, this should be straightforward for Wall. He has made the cut in the past three years here, whereas Schwartzel has yet to play on the course, and he also leads 4-2-1 h2h over the past three months. Will definitely take on these odds!

1st round plays (1.5 units):

Paul McGinley to beat Mathias Gronberg -115 @ Five Dimes
David Park to beat Simon Khan -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 0-2-0; -3.45 units

McGinley/Gronberg LOST by 2
Park/Khan LOST by 2

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Jean-Francois Remesy to beat Ian Poulter -113 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Bradley Dredge to beat Philip Price -105 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
David Park to beat Peter Lawrie -133 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-2-0; -6.62 units

Remesy/Poulter LOST by 5
Dredge/Price LOST by 3
Park/Lawrie WON by 3

Mid-point update:

Gonzalez/Coltart Trails by 1
Park/Khan WON by 3
Wall/Schwartzel WON by 2

Dredge 19th
Campbell 45th
Tinning mc

Sorry event so far with some heavy losses on the 18-hole plays. Dredge should have beaten Price and ended the day in the top-5 but a succession of missed short putts killed his early momentum. He did show he is playing well enough to win this event, but he is a long way behind Poulter now. Could get the sweep in the matchups if Gonzalez edges past Coltart, though Bickerton didn't tee off for two of the plays.

3rd round play (1.5 units):

Sandy Lyle to beat Jonathan Lomas -122 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-1-0; -1.83 units

Lyle/Lomas LOST by 8

No 4th round plays.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-1-0; +1.28 units

Gonzalez/Coltart LOST by 11

18-holes: 1-5-0; -11.90 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Dredge 10th
Campbell 65th

Expensive tournament, particularly in the first two days. Dredge threatened to finish in the top-5, but never actually got there. Should get better next week at the British Masters!