The Open Championship

72-HOLE PLAYS - FINAL RESULT: 7-1-0; +9.89pts

Love/Ames WON by 8
Campbell/Toms LOST by 4
Perry/Toms WON by 4
Choi/Herron WON by 11
Choi/Howell WON by 6
Lyle/Duval VOID (Duval dns)
Els/Mickelson WON by 1
Price/Johnson WON by 7
Love/Furyk WON by 5

A great return on the plays with just one loser. Pity that Duval didn't start as Lyle made the cut with ease, but a very nice profit on the event overall.

Round Four 18 Hole Matchups. +1.50 (Total +0.97 Pts on the 18 Hole Matches)

Rory Sabbatini to beat David Toms at 2.37 with Coral LOST
Sabbatini would be a slight favourite to me given what Toms has done this season. So 2.37 is a good price. An alternative is to lay Toms on the exchanges which gets the tie on your side.

Scott Verplank to beat Tiger Woods at 3.50 with ToteSport WON
Big price for a two ball even although we are opposing the "current" world No. 1. Tiger never wins majors from behind on Day 4 and may shoot himself out of the event in trying to do so. That may let Verplank in at a really high price.

Round Three 18 Hole Matchups. -2.00

Scott Verplank to beat Phil Mickelson at 2.75 with BlueSQ LOST
This is a good price considering that the weather has turned and Mickelson's record in poor weather Opens' is so poor.

Marten Olander to beat Steve Lowery at 2.50 with William Hill LOST
In this weather i am happy to get with the Euro Tour player over the US player who won't have experienced this often. Especially at 6/4


Round Two 18 Hole Matchups. +1.90 Pts

Peter Lonard to beat Gary Emerson and John Huston at 2.50 with Skybet TIED with 1.
A loser in R1 but still Lonard is the quality player of the two and is now a far better price.

Eduardo Romero to beat John Daly and Rory Sabbatini at 3.25 with William Hill LOST
A big price on a player who admittedly had a terrible R1 but he is no 3.25 shot if the R1 could be ignored.

David Howell to beat Aaron Baddeley and Mike Weir at 3.40 with Skybet LOST
An over reaction from Skybet as others go less than 3.00

Tim Clark to beat Brian Davis and Tim Herron at 2.75 with BlueSQ WON
2.75 is just too much to resist in what could be a close run matchup

Rod Pampling to beat Chris DiMarco and Scott Drummond at 3.40 with Bet Direct WON
DiMarco won this Thursday but having watched a few holes of this match Pampling was in contention throughout. 3.40 is good value, he is 2.75 elsewhere.

Glen Day to beat Darren Fichardt and Paul Bradshaw at 2.62 with Victor Chandler LOST
Another loser from R1 that has a better price to tempt us back in R2.

 

Further 72-hole play (1pt):

Davis Love to beat Jim Furyk -150 @ Five Dimes
Furyk's recovered wrist will be put to the test around the tangly rough at Royal Troon and he could easily miss the cut as he has done in the last three Open Championships. In fact, Love has finished ahead of him in each of the last five years, so even if fit, Furyk should struggle to win on a links course.

72-hole plays (1pt unless stated):

Davis Love to beat Stephen Ames -110 @ Bet365 [2pts]
Ames is one of the most in-form players on the PGA Tour at the moment, but just feel that his rustiness of links golf will harm his chances this week. He has only qualified for one of the last five Opens, while Love has finished no worse than 21st in the last seven. With Love showing some form at Cog Hill, he should have a good chance of beating Ames on this type of course.
(also available at Intertops)

Chad Campbell to beat David Toms -111 @ SIA
Toms did win the Fedex St Jude Classic, but where that win came from, I don't know. Troubled by injury earlier in the season, he has been in dire form since returning to action apart from that one week. No wonder that Campbell has a 7-2-1 h2h lead over him in 2004. He was also eight shots ahead of him when Toms missed the cut last year and a similar weekend back home is expected for Toms this year as well.
(also available at Expekt)

Kenny Perry to beat David Toms +100 @ Pinnacle [2pts]
Juts can't see Toms as the favourite here. While Toms was missing the cut last year, Perry played in his first Open Championship for 12 years and finished 8th. Displaying good form before the U.S. Open, this should be an easy win for Perry.

K.J. Choi to beat Tim Herron -125 @ William Hill and Easybets [2pts]
Herron has played in this event three times, the last time in 2000, and made the cut only once. And while he has been playing better of late, he has only finished ahead of Choi once in their last six common events. Choi should be the favourite on the PGA Tour, but his advantage should be much greater overseas. On his last visit to Europe, he won the German Masters. That ability to play on courses all over the world is a big advantage in this event.

K.J. Choi to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Pinnacle and Aces
Similar story here. Choi dominates this matchup on the PGA Tour - he leads Howell 9-4-0 in 2004 - and finished 33 places ahead of him when Howell made his debut in this event last year. Howell's game is perfect for TPC courses and Royal Troon will be very far removed from that type of setup!
(also available at Five Dimes and Olympic)

Sandy Lyle to beat David Duval -175 @ Bet365
Don't get too many opportunities to oppose Duval nowadays, but will do so here. He shot 83-82 in his first outing for eight months at the U.S. Open and looked more like one of the ceremonial player at the Masters than a Tour player. Lyle has been making cuts on the European Tour, but won't need to do so to beat Duval who should struggle to beat 80 again.

Ernie Els to beat Phil Mickelson -135 @ Intertops
Surprised that only one firm has offered this matchup so far. There was an easy win for Els in this matchup last week and it extended his h2h record against Mickelson on the European Tour to 13-0-0 since 1996. Will certainly take these odds given that stat.

Nick Price to beat Zach Johnson -111 @ BetandWin [2pts]
Johnson has never played outside North America so this will be quite a rude awakening. This should be straightforward for Price who has an excellent links record, plus he has a 5-3-0 h2h lead over Johnson on the PGA Tour this year.

Round One 18 Hole Matchups. -0.43 pts

Bo Van Pelt to beat Joachim Haeggman and Sean Whiffin at 2.87 with Skybet LOST
Without being too disrespectful to Whiffin, this is a match and although Haeggman has the better form and Van Pelt generally plays only in the US, he is way too big at 2.87 (3.00 is available with a firm called Super Odds)

Glen Day to beat Darren Fichardt and Paul Bradshaw at 2.37 with Victor Chandler LOST
Another possible match as Bradshaw should be out of his depth. Once again getting with the US Tour player at slightly inflated odds. Day is favourite in some other places.

Retief Goosen to beat Jay Haas and Robert Allenby at 2.20 with Victor Chandler WON
Fair price for a player is such good form. He is of course up against 2 quality players but anything over 2.1 would be value in this three-some.

Peter Lonard to beat Gary Emerson and John Huston at 2.25 with Coral LOST
Big price for Lonard who is against one player who rarely visits these shores and when he does, does not perform. and against a player vastly inferior. Lonard was 5th last week and is deserving of a lower quote, possibly even a shade of odds-on

Tom Lehman to beat Stephen Ames and Alan Whilley at 2.37 with Skybet WON
Another possible match here and if so 2.40 is quite high for a player with such a good Open record (and recent Loch Lomond form). (2.40 at Super Odds)