Spread Picks

Round One Trades

Buy Paul Casey over Graeme McDowell 18H MB at 5 with Cantor Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit 6 pts)

McDowell has gained a lot of respect this week for the way he handled the Italian Open final round, and rightly so. He has though been given a quote for this match which maybe takes those plaudits just a little too far. Casey has a record in Europe which is almost unblemished, and only poor results on a couple of links courses has stopped him recording faultless figures on this tour the last year or so. His record on the course is good, 12th and 27th when used in 01' and 02' for the English Open and his recent form finally showed a level of form in the States that equals his record over here. Last time out he was 6th in the Masters and for long spells over that weekend was a viable alternative to Els and Mickelson. A more realistic price would be 6-9

Sell Christopher Hanell over Ignacio Garrido 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 16, Profit -9.75pts)

We have a false favourite in this match in my opinion, Garrido has course form, 16th last year and 4th in 1998. His current form though is a bit hit and miss. 5th in Portugal, then he missed the cut in Seville and again in Italy although a R2 67 nearly got him in. Hanell was a winner this year in Madeira but has struggled since posting a 44th and a 51st place in his two events played. Course-wise he has a 26th and two missed cuts to offer up so i would suggest Garrido deserves a bit more respect than IG Sport have given him here. Sporting go 0-3 Hanell which is nearer where I would pitch it.

Buy Bradley Dredge over Nick Dougherty 18H MB at 5 with Cantor Sports for 0.75pts. (M/U -13, Profit -13.5pts)

Once again, we oppose Dougherty although there are signs of improvement from him and he is certainly talking a good game admitting failings in the past and a renewed attitude this year. We oppose him though with Dredge at a fairly low buy price. Dredge has limited form here, a 9th in 02' standing out amongst some poor results. Dougherty though offers up little better, with a 16th and MC in two visits. Currently, Dougherty is showing up a bit better with results of 23rd and 12th a few weeks ago but has resorted back to his old ways of late with 2 missed cuts, one in the Canaries and a missed cut playing on the Japanese Tour last week (not ideal prep for this week i may add). Although the Japanese Tour isn't sub standard you would expect a player of Nick's ability to reach the weekend there. A lot of travelling has been done for no reward and it will hopefully pay to get with the fresher Dredge, who has posted 5 Top 20's in his last 6 events before withdrawing in Milan last week after R1. I am unaware of why he pulled out but it may just have been the countless delays for the weather. We will just have to take this WD at face value and trust he is ready for his event this week.

Buy Colin Montgomerie over Lee Westwood 18H MB at 1.5 ch with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit -10.88 pts)

We have been allowed into the private life of Monty these last few weeks as his private life problems have been splashed over the front pages of the papers. A possible reaction to this is the firms have priced this a lot closer than they would have had this info not become public knowledge. But what do we know of Westwood at the moment, or any of the other 154 players for that matter, you can only assume when placing a bet that all is well inside their head. For all we know, this could work as a release in Monty's line of work, rather than work against him. I can only rate this match on known golf information and on that, Monty should be a clear favourite by a few points. Westwood has flattered a little this year and is being priced on the glories of four years ago now. If we were to take his record from 2001 onwards he would be classed as an average tour pro. we know he is not but he regularly promotes the idea that this is what he has become by some of the results he posts. His last top 10 on the two main tours where the quality is unquestionable is his win at St Andrews in September 03. He has played 11 events since then and his best is 12th in Dubai. Monty has won this year on a co-sanctioned event on this tour.

Buy Carlos Rodiles over Gareth Paddison 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 10.5 pts)

Paddison has a good 7th in the Heineken in his native Australia in February but since then has been very poor posting results of 40/mc/60/mc/mc. Admittedly Rodiles has been no better with 4 missed cuts, a 59th and two withdrawals. However, with both players having similar
bad current form we have to go to long term form to find an edge. Rodiles was 2nd in the Volvo Masters in November (he is possibly suffering from that close call this year) and 5th in Germany a few weeks before. Paddison though has never made a cut on European soil, neither has he shot less than 71 in 11 rounds of trying. It is also apparent from these results that 2 of the 5 events he has played were distinctly sub standard affairs, the AA St Omer Open in France and the Russian Open both last year. Rodiles is in really bad form but is arguably still a worthwhile bet at 5 given that even bar his results he has still posted 3 rounds in the 60's this year on this tour.

Sell Graeme McDowell over Paul McGinley 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 17.25 pts)

Although, it can be a risk that we are opposing Mcdowell on both his matches, this price is too big to ignore. McGinley has missed his last 3 cuts since finishing so close at Dubai, only beaten on the last hole by Mark O'Meara. Therefore, IG have decided that McDowell with much the better current form should be priced at 4-7. Others go 2-5 which i can understand given the three cuts missed but 4-7 is just too much. McGinley has finished 10th here in 01' but his course form other than that is poor, although McDowell has just the MC from last year as his course form.

Round Two Trades

Sell Christopher Hanell over Ignacio Garrido 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit -7.5 pts)

Buy Bradley Dredge over Nick Dougherty 18H MB at 4 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U 28, Profit 18 pts)

Sell Nick Dougherty over James Kingston 18H MB at 0 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 14.25 pts)

The first two bets are R1 losers that i feel can be backed again at the same price with hopefully a different result. The third bet is within our range now as Kingston shot 75 Thursday and needs a good score Friday to make the cut. Kingston has posted better scores than Dougherty this season so far, with 7 Top 30's in his nine starts. He hasn't played since the Caltex Masters in Singapore in March and he maybe was just lacking in "match practice" yesterday.

Sell Lee Westwood over Colin Montgomerie 18H MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 22, Profit -15.5 pts)

1-4 Monty at Cantor is a more realistic price even although the bet lost yesterday. Monty has that difficult first round "after" out the way and will hopefully reward us tomorrow.

Sell Soren Hansen over Marcus Fraser 18H MB at 4 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 17.25 pts)

Fraser shot 75 yesterday but we have backed him nearly every week recently on his Euro form and hopefully he will reproduce it tomorrow. Hansen won by 6 yesterday but is not a 4pt underdog on 2004 form.

Buy Paul Casey over Graeme McDowell 18H MB at 5 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts (M/U -13, Profit -13.5 pts)

Playing up a winner at the same price, reasons for the bet as above. (6-9 at IG !!)

Buy Marcus Fraser over Anthony Wall 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit -15.37 pts)

Reasons for supporting Fraser above, Wall shot -2 Thursday so won this by 5 but Fraser is a far better player in my opinion and come back tomorrow and hopefully reverse today's result. Wall this season has performed poorly, his best result being 28th last week. He has only made the weekend 2 in 10 attempts this season and may fail again tomorrow even although he is currently -2.

Round Three Trades

Buy Retief Goosen over Miguel Angel Jimenez 18H MB at 1.5 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U 0, Profit -1.12pts)

Price based choice here, another goes 1-4 and that is nearer the mark. Neither player has played well here this week but Goosen is worthy of being favourite.

Round Four Trades

Buy Mark Roe over Daniel Gaunt 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U 22, Profit 12 pts)

Daniel Gaunt has had a fair start to the week, but a 75 yesterday has put him out of contention. An Australian who is trying his hand for the first time in Europe is enjoying his 2nd weekend on tour in 7 events. His other finish was 58th and this position beckons tomorrow again. Roe shot 76 today and is also out of it so this is a match for minor cash and should be treated warily, however if both players are trying their best Roe should be around 3 or 4 pts higher so is worth the risk involved in playing.

Summary - 8.13 pt profit

Just tipped over into profit with Roe today and it was on all on the last 2 where an Eagle/birdie finish seen Mark win by 4 rather than 1. One of those weeks where we caught those we were opposing on the wrong days, Westwood being the prime example.

European Tour

Tournament Trade:

Sell Paul Casey FP at 24 with Spreadex or SportsSpread for 0.75 pts
Casey is incredibly consistent, moreso than probably all his main rivals this week, is one of the very best Europeans and will soon, I'm sure, be laying claim the being THE best. Has finishes of 12th and 27th here in '01 and '02 when he wasn't the player he is now, and will surely occupy somewhere in the top 15 this week, if not the top ten, as he has done recently at the Players and the Masters, if not the top five.
Result:
Casey tied 12th with one other, MU 12.5, Profit 8.62 pts

Tournament Trade:

Sell Greg Owen/Eduardo Romero 72H MB at 0 with SportsSpread for 0.25 pts
Beware, SportSpread's scoring system is different to the rest, and despite being more volatile, I think better. They award 10 pts to the winner of the matchbet, plus 3 pts for each shot won by. The 3 pts part of it is doubled should one or both miss the cut. Reasons ... well, there is one, chiefly. Owen has been struggling terribly with his back and my thinking is that were he not defending champion, he'd be continuing his recovery at home. An appearance on TV last week suggested he's absolutely desperately to play and defend his first-ever title, and there has to be a real chance that he'll play when being far from 100% fit. On our side we have Romero, a wonderful ball striker, very consistent, arguably a better player overall, and fresh off a decent first event back in Europe last week. And we have him as outsider .. an excellent bet I think.
Result:
Owen +2, Romero -13, MU -55, Profit 13.75 pts