Canarias Open de Espana


Back Robert Karlsson to win 2 pts @ 38 at Betfair (also 40/1 at Tote)
After supporting him last time out at 50 in a better event, suggesting he was about to hit form, I'd better not desert him now at probably comparable odds. His driving is a real problem for him and it left him putting for pars on too many occasions in the Algarve event, but a closing 64 secured him tied 16th and left you thinking again whether his time was soon to come. The clincher for me to have a bet, and the reason I'm getting involved generally this week on the European Tour, is that this course is both short and wide open according to all available reports. He has more ability than almost all in this field when he can keep the ball in play and he will surely be able to here. Won in mainland Spain 3 years ago, almost to the week, and also has two other Spanish top tens since then.

Back Marcel Siem to win 1.5 pts @ 48 at Betfair (also 50/1 at William Hill)
Not bad odds at all for a very promising player who already has a 5th and a win from just six starts this season. He looked on an upward curve throughout 2003 and has quickly shown his progression in the golfing world is continuing this year. Again his problem is wayward driving and he sits 180th on the Driving Accuracy list so far this season, but then the rest of his game is very good indeed and here he should be allowed to demonstrate that and challenge strongly.

Back Christian Cevaer to win 0.25 pts @ 300 at Betfair
His problem is undoubtedly his short and not-too-straight driving, and again this course will hopefully let him compete off more of a level footing than normal. Combine the Putting Average stats for 2003 and 2004 and he sits very high indeed on the European list and I fancy a speculative punt that this week may be one where he improves on the many finishes he has between 30th and 60th in the last 9 months or so. Last week he was tied 22nd with one round to go and that was maybe a sign that he could pop up on this shorter course. As with almost all players on this tour, he undoubtedly has the ability to challenge seriously in these events if on a going week.

Back Fredrik Andersson to win 0.5 pts @ 125/1 at Stan James (not on Betfair's list)
Again chancing a long shot who generally struggles to hit a barn door from 10 feet with his driver, but is proving to be a fine putter. Currently he sits 10th in Putting Average and has a nice touch of recent form to recommend him. 25th in Madeira and 9th in the Algarve leading up to this looks good and maybe having got married this year will be the making of him, who knows! Again hoping the reports of this course are correct and providing they are, I think this team of four have plenty of the short-game talent that would be vital this week.


Half-way Update:
Cevaer and Siem are doing us proud but I am reluctant to lay anything off as I would have to go almost to 20. Just to get the stake for this page back I'd be more or less halving any potential win and I don't feel it's worth it. I feel there is a real chance that at least one of them will get seriously involved in the race for the title so I'm sitting tight for now and hopefully there will be something to get stuck into after the conclusion of the third round.

After 3rd round:
Have to say it's disappointing, Siem being gone completely and Andersson's last two rounds of 68 & 67 coming when he was too far from the leaders. He has done well to reach T16 but in reality 7 shots and that many players is too much to hope for. The positive to take from the day is that none of the leaders bettered Cevaer's back nine and that experience will hopefully stand him in good stead tomorrow. Despite being the 'big names' up there, Gonzalez and Dredge could easily struggle to follow their 64s and I'm still pretty hopeful. We'll have to put some bets up to lay Cevaer in case he gets to a short enough price.
Lay Cevaer:
5 pts @ 4,
5 pts @ 2.5,
5 pts @ 1.8,
10 pts @ 1.5 &
10 pts @ 1.2.

Summary:
Wow, that was exciting, even with {disgracefully} no live Sky coverage. It was obviously meant to be Cevaer's week as two eagles on par fours in one day probably happens once a career, if that (he had five "no-putt" greens over the week!). As ever, still some slight disappointment that it was the very minimum bet, but in reality a stake probably doesn't deserve to go any higher than the minimum when it's at odds of 300 on a player who'd never won before. I'm very glad I resisted laying anything off until 3/1 and once all the lays were taken, the profit was guaranteed to be just over 30 points. It ended up being 37.25 so a little was kept back to cheer Cevaer all the way and he did us proud, even if the luck was on his side!

Stakes 4.25 pts, Returns 75 pts
Hedged 35 pts to lose 33.5 pts

Total Profit 75 - 4.25 - 33.5 = 37.25 pts.