Matchup Picks

Tournament trades (1pt):

David Park to beat Nick Dougherty -110 @ SkyBet
Dougherty has shown some markedly improved form in the last two events - presumably because of regaining strength after glandular fever - yet he still finished behind Park who finished inside the top-10 on both occasions. In fact, Park has finished ahead of Dougherty in their last six common events this year, so I'll oppose a revitalised Dougherty for another week.

Thomas Levet to beat Gregory Havret -120 @ SkyBet
Simply siding with the better player. Havret has struggled on the Canary Islands in the last two years, shooting 80-80 over the weekend two years ago and while he has had two top-10 finishes this year, his next-best finish has been 45th. Levet has had four top-20 finishes in eight starts in 2004 and showed in the 2002 British Open that he is comfortable playing in wind.

Nothing else of interest this week.

Final update: 1-1-0; -0.20pts

Park/Dougherty WON by 16
Levet/Havret LOST by 14

Didn't find too much value in these week's matchups, so a split seems a fair enough outcome.

European Tour

Tournament Trades (1.5 pts unless stated):

Marcel Siem to beat Graeme McDowell -115 @ Five Dimes
McDowell has been a big disappointment to me, and I'm wondering if his two recent good finishes aren't just another false dawn. There's little doubt his biggest weakness is his putting and that is in stark contrast to Siem. As I stated on the Betfair page, it looks for all the world that it's going to come down to who performs best on the greens this week and I'd take Siem to outperform McDowell in that respect every single time.

Peter Fowler to beat Terry Price +120 @ Sportingbet / Sporting Odds [3 pts]
Strangely for a matchup bet, going for a player out of form against one who looks very much in form. However, starting with Price, it was only a Sunday 64 that rocketed him up from tied 25th to 2nd in the Algarve, and it could well be massively flattering. There's not a lot else that suggests he's likely to do the business again and, as with McDowell in the other match, it is very much his putting that lets him down. Fowler, on the other hand, is 7th in Putting Average this year and that is despite his last 3 tournaments where he's scored badly. He's had a month's break since the last of those and it is surely just a matter of time before he gets back to the form which got him a 3rd and an 8th earlier this year, and 13 top 25s from 24 European Tour events in 2003. He finished 10th, 6th and 21st in his 3 Spanish events last year.

Final Update: 0-1-1; Loss 3 pts

Siem/McDowell TIED
Fowler/Price LOST by 9

Annoying performance by Siem who, with the aid of three double bogeys in five holes mid-Sunday, threw away an eight shot halfway lead. McDowell even then had to play his last nine holes in two under par to secure the unlikely tie with Siem at +6. Price, as hoped, did little right around the greens (he took 29 putts more than the winner!) and finished +9 but Fowler's game must be in total disarray at the moment and he won't be supported next week!