Spread Picks

Round Two Trades

Sell G McDowell over A Wall 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit 15.75 pts)

Agreeing with Shaker's analysis on McDowell who has been vastly over-priced on R2 as his opponent Wall had a very poor 76 on Day 1. McDowell has had his purple patch a couple of weeks ago and his 53rd last week has been followed by an average round today. Wall has not been playing well and is heading towards a 7th missed cut of the year........but..... 5-8 is just too high. I don't expect Wall to suddenly shoot in the 60's but then he may not have to.

Round Three Trades

Sell Gregory Havret over Marcus Fraser 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 0)

I would have fraser favourite here. Their 2004 European record is 24/30 Fraser and 45/50/9/68 Havret. I think Fraser is a better player and this could be priced on the fact that Fraser is an Australian on a different tour. Arguably, though, his performances this year in Europe are better than he has posted at home.

Round Four Trades

Sell Gregory Havret over Marcus Fraser 18H MB at 1 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U -25, Profit 19.5 pts)

With the two players shooting the same score today they are paired again tomorrow. SportsSpread though offer a point higher than today and i would have happily taken Saturdays' 0.

Sell Ricardo Gonzalez over David Park 18H MB at 6 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit -5.25pts.)

This has been priced on the expectation that Gonzalez will handle the last day pressure better than Park. If it was a R1 bet the price would probably be around 2-5. Although i can see where the firms are coming from, 6 is just too big to be ignored.

Summary - 30pt profit

Good week making up for a poor set of results last week. This puts me back on track to try and achieve a 60% win to loss return on the bets on matches on Tour Tips this season. US results also doing well although results today may not be up to the level of the first three days.

European Tour

Tournament Trade:

Buy Graeme McDowell FP at 36 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts
Given my reasons for opposing McDowell on the Matchups page but, briefly, it's because his putting is very weak and I can't see him getting away with that here. Even counting his two recent good finishes you would have made the maximum profit (i.e. a makeup of 50) from striking this bet on 6 of 9 occasions this year, and in 16 of 23 events in 2003. Only 3 top tens since winning in Sweden in August 2002, he is obviously priced on the fact that two of them are in his last three starts. People are obviously thinking that he has turned the corner, I am still very doubtful after his poor 53rd last week.
Result:
McDowell tied 59th, MU 50, Profit 7 pts

Round 1 Trade:

Buy Fredrik Andersson/Gary Evans 18H MB at -1.5 with Sporting Index & Cantor Sport for 0.25 pts
Really looked for a chance to oppose Gary Evans this week and to have the chance with one of my outright selections will do nicely. I read a report in the week that said Evans' coach rang him after last week's first round 68 to encourage him as he'd been struggling desperately. Evans said that his well-known coach had no idea and that he had still played awful; he then shot 76, 80 and 76 in the final three rounds. He also mentioned that he doesn't know which way the ball is going at present, and that he struggles to get motivated for these 'smaller' events. Hardly a golfer at ease with himself then! Even if he did find some form he's not a good putter at all so probably wouldn't be suited to here, and this quick a turnaround in his attitude and game is extremely hard to envisage. Tee-off 12:45 UK time.
Result:
Andersson 72, Evans 75, MU 19, Profit 4.38 pts

Final result: 2-0; Profit 11.38 pts

Two good results but it should've been even better as I fully intended going with the Andersson buy over Evans again in round two but the only firm to quote had shifted to 1-4. Not sure what the spread experts would say but I felt that was too much and left it. Evans withdrew halfway through that round and another positive makeup would've been the result.