Deutsche Bank - SAP Open


Back Michael Campbell to win 2 pts @ 40 at Betfair (40/1 available at William Hill)
Probably such a decent price for one of the European Tour's regular top dogs because he has faded quite badly after starting brilliantly in his last two outings. However, the latest finish of tied 16th was not too shabby in his second tournament back from the Masters and it was his 5th top-20 from 7 regular European Tour events this season. I'm suggesting that he should be fully tuned up now and he must like the place after shooting 62-65 on his way to an ultimately desperately disappointing 2nd to a charging Tiger Woods in 2001, and finishing tied 16th the following year courtesy of a Sunday 66.

Back Colin Montgomerie to win 2 pts @ 50 at Betfair
Is 'recovering' from well-documented marital problems, and I'm tempted to believe his statement that his tied 16th last time exceeded his expectations. That was his sixth tied 16th or better from six in regular European Tour events this season, including a win secured with a bogey-free weekend of 67-65 in Singapore, and he looks capable of being a force again in European golf. His personal problems may just fire up his game and he has the course form too, only losing out in a playoff to Tiger here in 2002 as well as making the top ten the previous year.

Back Brian Davis to win 1.5 pts @ 70 at Betfair (66/1 generally available)
A little like Campbell, he's returned from a missed cut at Augusta with two poor finishes but he maybe has an extra excuse in that he is also getting used to first few weeks of fatherhood. Again he has shown flashes of the form expected of one of the tour's leading lights without finishing it off; 68-67 saw him in joint 2nd at halfway last time before the wheels came off. But we must remember what he can do, his European events leading up to Augusta saw him finish 1st, tied 5th and tied 3rd and he currently sits in 6th on the Order of Merit. He was 9th in that last year and this price is certainly appealing if we can just overlook last time's 3rd round. It is surely just a matter of time before he puts it all together again.

Back Carlos Rodiles to win 0.75 pts @ down to 200 at Betfair (currently 220)
Back Gary Evans to win 0.75 pts @ down to 300 at Betfair (currently 370)
Yet again, players on a comeback trail of sorts. Rodiles was one of the bright sparks of the end of 2003 (3 top-8s in the last 6 events) and the whole world seemed to have him down as a certain first-time winner this season. However, injury has prevented him looking anything like the same player and it's only in the last month we've seen some glimpses of promise again. Two weeks ago he had by far his best four-round performance since nearly winning the high-class Volvo Masters nearly six months ago and it could just be he's finally ready to fulfil all that promise. Evans has been in terrible trouble with his game but he too looks right on the up again now. He had said he struggled to get motivated for the smaller events but he has turned it around with hard work and has managed tied 19th and tied 24th in his last two events. I'd expect him to be absolutely fired up for this, one of the very best fields anywhere in Europe this season, and he's shown before he can go close when mixing it with the big boys.

Post-round one update:
Three rounds to go and I'm already apologising for my tips! Sorry, absolute rubbish!

Summary:
Shocking week, absolute agony having a brilliant event and no runners. Loss = 7 pts