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Matchup Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Deutsche Bank - SAP Open (1pt unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Campbell has simply been disappointing since the Tour moved to the Northern Hemisphere. He has not had a top-10 finish since the Heineken Classic in Australia three months ago. In this form, he is no match for Cabrera.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Paul Casey to beat Padraig Harrington +100 @ Five Dimes [2pts]
Opposing Harrington not just because he played and finished a lowly 60th in China at the weekend, but also because he played injured. His course form might be better than Casey's, but he looks very unlikely to secure the top-10 he will need to beat Casey this time around.

Ernie Els to beat Darren Clarke -170 @ Five Dimes
At least coming from Texas, Els has the time zones working in his favour compared to Harrington. For these odds to be value, Els would have to win this matchup at least 63% of the time. It is enough that in their five common European Tour events over the past year, Els has finished ahead of Clarke every time.
(also available at Expekt, Centrebet and Pinnacle)

Anders Hansen to beat Lee Westwood -128 @ Five Dimes
Two consecutive top-10 finishes and a top-10 finish the last time that this course was used looks very impressive for Hansen; even more so when compared to Westwood who has not had a top-10 since the Dunhill Championship in South Africa in January and has missed the cut in two of three starts on this course (52nd on the other occasion).

Anders Hansen to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -111 @ Stan James [2pts]
Also opposing Gonzalez who must have used up his year's supply of luck - necessary because of his wild driving - when finishing 1st and 2nd in the two Spanish events last month. He missed the cut the following week and with Hansen having finished ahead of the Argentinean in all their common events this year, he will need to do much better to beat hansen this week.

Eduardo Romero to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -115 @ Intertops [2pts]
If Hansen can beat Gonzalez, then so should the outright selection, Eduardo Romero. After that burst of form last month, Gonzalez should be quickly returned to being, at best, the 3rd-best Argentinean player on the Tour.
(available widely)

Eduardo Romero to beat Lee Westwood -114 @ Expekt [2pts]
Logical consequence of the above. Romero is an outright selection tipped to go close again, while Westwood has continued to struggle with consistency. He looked to be in superb form in the 2nd round at the British Masters two weeks ago, but then his confidence looked very fragile over the weekend.

Adding (1pt):

Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn -111 @ BetandWin
Both missed their last two cuts - the BellSouth Classic and the Masters - but Scott still finished ahead on both occasions as he has done in their last four common events. Bjorn did finish 6th on this course two years ago, but otherwise has a dreadful record around St Leon Rot and doesn't look to be playing well enough to repeat that top-10 finish.

Final update: 4-4-0; +1.09pts

Cabrera/Campbell LOST by 11
Casey/Harrington LOST by 18
Els/Clarke LOST by 1
Hansen/Westwood WON by 15
Hansen/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Westwood WON by 8
Scott/Bjorn LOST by 10

Blown over by the 2nd round winds! None of the eight plays had been behind after the 1st round, but they struggled in the windy afternoon conditions on Friday. Some large margins either way with only Els going close, though he couldn't buy a putt for three days. Looked promising, but in the end only profited from opposing Westwood and Gonzalez.