Matchup Picks - European Tour
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Deutsche Bank - SAP Open (1pt unless stated):
Angel Cabrera to beat Michael Campbell -110 @
Sportingbet
and
Sporting Odds
Campbell has simply been disappointing since the Tour moved to the
Northern Hemisphere. He has not had a top-10 finish since the Heineken
Classic in Australia three months ago. In this form, he is no match for
Cabrera.
(also available at Five Dimes)
Paul Casey to beat Padraig Harrington +100 @
Five
Dimes [2pts]
Opposing Harrington not just because he played and finished a lowly 60th
in China at the weekend, but also because he played injured. His course
form might be better than Casey's, but he looks very unlikely to secure
the top-10 he will need to beat Casey this time around.
Ernie Els to beat Darren Clarke -170 @
Five
Dimes
At least coming from Texas, Els has the time zones working in his favour
compared to Harrington. For these odds to be value, Els would have to
win this matchup at least 63% of the time. It is enough that in their
five common European Tour events over the past year, Els has finished
ahead of Clarke every time.
(also available at Expekt, Centrebet and Pinnacle)
Anders Hansen to beat Lee Westwood -128 @
Five
Dimes
Two consecutive top-10 finishes and a top-10 finish the last time that
this course was used looks very impressive for Hansen; even more so when
compared to Westwood who has not had a top-10 since the Dunhill
Championship in South Africa in January and has missed the cut in two of
three starts on this course (52nd on the other occasion).
Anders Hansen to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -111 @
Stan James
[2pts]
Also opposing Gonzalez who must have used up his year's supply of luck -
necessary because of his wild driving - when finishing 1st and 2nd in
the two Spanish events last month. He missed the cut the following week
and with Hansen having finished ahead of the Argentinean in all their
common events this year, he will need to do much better to beat hansen
this week.
Eduardo Romero to beat
Ricardo Gonzalez -115 @
Intertops
[2pts]
If Hansen can beat Gonzalez, then so should the outright selection,
Eduardo Romero. After that burst of form last month, Gonzalez should be
quickly returned to being, at best, the 3rd-best Argentinean player on
the Tour.
(available widely)
Eduardo Romero to beat Lee Westwood -114 @
Expekt
[2pts]
Logical consequence of the above. Romero is an outright selection tipped
to go close again, while Westwood has continued to struggle with
consistency. He looked to be in superb form in the 2nd round at the
British Masters two weeks ago, but then his confidence looked very
fragile over the weekend.
Adding (1pt):
Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn -111 @
BetandWin
Both missed their last two cuts - the BellSouth Classic and the Masters
- but Scott still finished ahead on both occasions as he has done in
their last four common events. Bjorn did finish 6th on this course two
years ago, but otherwise has a dreadful record around St Leon Rot and
doesn't look to be playing well enough to repeat that top-10 finish.
Final update: 4-4-0; +1.09pts
Cabrera/Campbell LOST by 11
Casey/Harrington LOST by 18
Els/Clarke LOST by 1
Hansen/Westwood WON by 15
Hansen/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Westwood WON by 8
Scott/Bjorn LOST by 10
Blown over by the 2nd round winds! None of the eight plays had been
behind after the 1st round, but they struggled in the windy afternoon
conditions on Friday. Some large margins either way with only Els going
close, though he couldn't buy a putt for three days. Looked promising,
but in the end only profited from opposing Westwood and Gonzalez.
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