Spread Picks

Note: Staking
 
 It has been apparent over the last few weeks that the staking between the different betting codes on the site were not compatible and that the volatility of the 18H bets was far greater than the exchange or Fixed odds equivalent. Therefore, from this week all 18H MB spreads will be changed to 0.25pt per bet rather than 0.75pt as they were previously. It is not a downsizing in confidence in the bets but rather an attempt to streamline the financial risk on the various bets on offer on the site. For anyone who follows the Spread Bets i would suggest they continue to stake as they did but just adjust their own staking plan round the new site staking plan. There is no plan to change any 72H stakes as the volatility on those bets are much lower and Finishing Position bets will also remain static at 0.5pts.This should even out the volatility over all the spread bets on offer.

SUMMARY:- ( 14.87 Pts Loss)

Very disappointing week where we just seemed to catch players at the wrong time. Backing Campbell Saturday shooting 78 when he shoots 66 on Sunday. Backing three players Friday whose best score was 78. But, this is what happens when you are backing a market which depends on the score in one round, which can be volatile, Campbell being the obvious example. Romero showed up as a 75 and a winner in his R4 match then mysteriously changed to 77, i can only assume he rcvd. a penalty after the finish. it kind of sums up our week.

Round Four Trades ( -5.25 Pts)

Buy Eduardo Romero over Alan McLean at 8 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts (MU -13, Profit -5.25 Pts)

Similar opposition to McLean today as yesterday, in that Romero, like Hansen, is a far better player than McLean and should be priced a little higher than he is.

Round Three Trades (-3.00 Pts)

Buy Michael Campbell over Andre Cruse at 11 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. (MU -16, Profit -6.75 Pts)

After yesterday where Monty shooting 78 was our best individual score posted over the three bets, it may seem folly to tip a favourite in double figures. However, today is another day and we have a proven winner playing a guy who has posted the following on this tour: MC (78/82), MC (80/70/76), MC (77/76). Cruse plays most of his golf in Africa and although he has done well to make the weekend in Germany he is fancied to come up short against Campbell who is a vastly superior player.

Buy Anders Hansen over Alan McLean at 8 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts (MU 13, Profit 1.25 Pts)

McLean has missed three cuts in his last 4 events and is up against a player of superior quality who didn't travel to China at the weekend but rested after a 5th at the Forest of Arden. Hansen is putting together a noticeable set of results where its either a big cheque or nothing. A few missed cuts have been coupled with regular Top 25s. He rarely finishes down the field when making the cut so we will hopefully play up on that this weekend.

Buy Ben Curtis over Santiago Luna at 3 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts. (MU 13, Profit 2.5 Pts)

Curtis is a major winner, maybe the most surprising one and arguably the one with the least ability, however harsh that may be to say, but it is fair to say that Luna is extremely unlikely to match his achievement. Curtis has a fair worldwide record, 3rd in the Wentworth Matchplay, 2nd in Japan, and of course Open winner. Luna has not matched any of these finishes, with his last Top 10 being in Wales nearly 12 months ago. 3 is too low.

Round Two Trades (-22.87 Pts)

Sell Emanuel Canonica over Peter Hanson at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. MU 25, Profit -5.25 pts

With Canonica high up the leaderboard, Sporting have priced this is one up just enough in favour of Canonica to make it a worthwhile sell. Hanson this year has had a few good results with 4 Top 25 places compared to Canonica's 2. Arguably both players are fairly equal so a 4pt start even allowing for the 5 shot difference
yesterday is fair value.

Sell Padraig Harrington over Colin Montgomerie at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. MU 40 Profit -8.75 pts

This is 5-8 because Harrington is 5 clear of Monty after R1 but on all other known facts and figures they are fairly evenly matched. Given that they were much closer in price yesterday going up to 5 is just an over-reaction to one round.

Buy Angel Cabrera over Trevor Immelman at 1.5 ch with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. MU -34, Profit -8.87 pts

Similar story here, Immelman leads the tournament with two others but Cabrera had a poor finish to R1 or would have been much closer. Cabrera has much better form on mainland Europe, where Immelman has struggled on the whole. He started well also at the Forest of Arden but didn't break 70 from R2 on. Trevor has one top 10 on this tour in the last 12 months, Angel has 4 in the same period. He is just a far better player on this tour than Immelman and should be backed off levels.

Round One Trades (+16.25 Pts)

Sell Andrew Coltart over Sandy Lyle at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. MU 0, Profit 0.75 pts

Coltart has had a terrible year, 45th in Thailand in February being his best result. After a bright start at the Forest of Arden where he led during R1, I followed him in R2 as he shot 77 and then an even poorer weekend saw him fall to 75th place. Lyle has arguably had a better year as he has posted two top 40 places including finishing 41 places better than Coltart at the British Masters. Given Coltart's shocking figures this year he shouldn't be 3-6 over Lyle even although Lyle has obviously had better seasons in his younger days.  

Buy Carlos Rodiles over Sven Struver at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. MU 37, Profit 8.5 pts

Another player with a shocking year, Rodiles shot his best tournament score in 04' at the British Masters with a 20th place. An advantage to this R1 play is that Rodiles took last week off but Struver went all the way to China to play 4 rounds, finish 47th and then fly back to his homeland for this tournament. Struver hasn't had a Top 30 place since January so lets get with the player who is fresher and has better current form.

Buy Ernie Els over Justin Rose at 6 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts MU 34, Profit 7 pts

Nothing against Rose, but giving up 6 pts on a player who has finished 2nd at the Masters, 3rd the week after (suffering no mental letdown) and then 7th last week compares favourably to Rose's 22nd at the Masters which included a 81, and a missed cut in Houston which included a 76. Apart from that Rose has been excellent but Els is just far more predictable and safer to back. I wouldn't take any higher as Rose is playing well generally but the 6pt handicap is worthy on a player at the top of his game.
 

European Tour