European Masters

Tournament Trades (andy)

Poor week on this tour as virtually every player who made the cut bar Tunnicliff went backwards as the week went on. Dredge was in the top 10 early on Sunday and Campbell would have been considered highly unlikely to fall to over 50th place from his position going into the weekend. Hopefully the 3 bets in the US will cover these losses.

Finishing Positions: (0.5pt Stakes) (-18.25 pts)

Sell Michael Campbell at 29 with Cantor Sports M/U 50, Loss 10.5 pts
Strange price this one and a full 3 pt arb with another firm. Campbell would be a bet at anything above 28 so to obtain this price either call very early or avail yourself of their "online exchange" where 29 and over is currently trade-able. The reason for Campbell is his record here, 15th, 10th, 10th and 2nd in his last four visits show Campbell is at ease here and it is a quirky course that probably demands you know your way round it. 2nd in July at Loch Lomond, he had 2 further Top 20's before playing poorly in Sweden. A 49th last time out at the last major, the PGA, was ok given the field strength. This is a very good price and will no doubt be the best value we trade on the spreads all weekend.

Sell Brian Davis at 34 with Cantor Sports M/U 50, Loss 8 pts
Another strange price. 13th at the PGA is impressive and the quirky course reasoning I gave for Campbell can apply here too as Davis was 8th last year. Other results recently haven't been as good as the 13th but then this isn't a great field so 34 is a bit high.

Sell Miles Tunnicliff at 37 with Cantor Sports M/U 30, Profit 3.5 pts

Sell Bradley Dredge at 37 with Cantor Sports M/U 21.5, Profit 7.75 pts

Sell Barry Lane at 36 with Cantor Sports M/U 50, Loss 7 pts

Sell Marcus Fraser at 37 with Cantor Sports M/U 50, Loss 6.5 pts

Sell Thomas Bjorn at 35 with Spreadex M/U 30, Profit 2.5 pts

Five more trades and in all 5 cases there is no particular course or current form to argue their case it is purely a trade on the price of the player. Arguably, all 5 of these players should be a few points lower than what they are. Other firms agree as the lowest price on them elsewhere (in order) is 34, 34, 33, 34 and 36. So in 4 cases we have what is known in the trade as a "toucher", that being that you can sell or buy at the same price. For a market with such a small range where the player can only finish from 1 to 50, touchers are rare but today we have 4, and in the case of the two main bets, full point arbs. I would suggest that win or lose this week, Cantor have got their prices wrong and if we could trade these sort of positions on a weekly basis we would have a fairly successful year.