Open de France

FINAL RESULT:

Profit = 15.5 pts (4.5 pts staked, 20 pts laid).

Summary:
A winning tournament but for so long it looked like being a big winner. The consolation at the end of the day is that a decent profit was secured even though none of the selections got placed.

After third round update:
Well, it all looks over for Woosnam. After yet again starting excellently, he once more couldn't handle the final third and looks to have fallen out of contention despite still standing in 3rd place. The only possible hope is that Remesy is playing in front of his home fans and could conceivably, I suppose, collapse, whereas Green is a known weak finisher. If Woosie can fire out the blocks there may be the faintest hope. Just in case he gets involved again, only to fail at the finish, I'll leave bet 4 up there but change it to 5/2. Unlikely I know but no harm in hoping!
With the slightly outrageous hope that that the leaders will bottle it, who better to fire in an unbelievable final round and pinch it than Peter O'Malley? He has done it before and is turning in a very good run of form. Will not ask for ridiculous odds for fear of not getting matched.
Bet 5: Change Woosnam Bet 4 to Lay 20 pts @ 3.5
Bet 6: Back Peter O'Malley 0.5 pts @ 100


Early third round update:
Just to confirm the 6 (5/1) on Woosnam has been laid, in fact he has been traded for big money as low as 4.5 before the 3rd hole of round three was completed.

Half-way update:
Am dismayed at the three late bogeys of Woosnam which saw his price drop from what was at one time 11/10 (with Stan James). There was a lot of money traded at under 5/2 on Betfair and yet I was unable to take advantage of that low price. He is now over 5/1 on Betfair and that is a little big in my opinion, but as he has lost a little momentum, and because we secured such a large price, I shall try and lay at 5/1, but no bigger. If that price isn't taken tonight, I expect it to be nearer his tee-off time in round three. In case he goes clear on Saturday and falters again, I shall also be putting in a lay at Evens. And don't forget, Immelman is far from out of it either.
Bet 3: Lay Ian Woosnam 20 pts @ 6 -- Matched
Bet 4: Lay Ian Woosnam 20 pts @ 2


Pre-tournament picks:

Back Trevor Immelman 3 pts @ 22 at Betfair
I don't really like the look of this event, I think it's the uncertainty of how the 'big boys' will react to what went through at the US Open, and the travelling also, that makes it hard to get to grips with it. Casey, Rose, Poulter & Jimenez all missed the cut but do we count that as a blessing in disguise? Allenby slipped quietly into 7th but was he just flattered? Hansen, Howell, Monty etc. didn't play and that may be a big bonus - so should we be looking at one who hasn't been through it all?
After mulling it all over, Immelman will do for me despite his torrid weekend in New York with just one birdie from the last two rounds. Up until then he had plenty of positives to take from the experience, having performed admirably well being one of just ten players who shot par or better in both the first two rounds, and I think it's no slur on his record that he couldn't handle what was put before him after that. I think he is good enough and confident enough to bounce right back and perform well back on a course where he finished 2nd in 2002 and I don't think the travelling should hurt him either - he is very young and fit and flew back from America to immediately finish 11th in Germany late last season. He already has two European Tour wins this season and the memory of the latest, an impressive show in Germany five weeks ago beating a high-class field with a bogey-free final round of 65, is still fresh enough in the mind to make 20/1+ appeal.

Back Ian Woosnam 1 pt @ 210 at Betfair
After other oldies doing the business on the European Tour in the last 4 months - O'Meara in Dubai, Lane at the Forest of Arden, and Tunnicliff at Gleneagles - I wonder if another could be about to show up again. Woosie has shown a little recent form with three top 30s in his last six events on European soil, and back in France he may be able to better those and give us a run at these speculative odds; his last four French events have been 13th/13th/3rd/8th with the 3rd place being at this course and his joint-best result in the whole of 2002.