Irish Open @ Betfair

Summary:
Bit gutted about the result as I've supported Rumford twice in the last three months at over 100/1 here on Tour-Tips. However, it had seemed that his form was completely gone and he was close to unfindable this week.


After third round:

Lay Nick O'Hern 10 pts @ 3.5
Lay Nick O'Hern 10 pts @ 1.5
Pretty wishful thinking that he'll get that low in the betting but you never know. As mentioned below he has shot 4th round scores of 67-68-68-71-68 the last five times he's finished top-5, and you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will burn up the first six holes tomorrow (with three par fives). He's already done that once this week (6 under for holes 1-6 inclusive on Thursday) and the last thing you want with this most frustrating of golfers is to see him in the mix yet again and have no insurance for when the pressure bites.

Pre-tournament picks:

Back Jean-François Remesy 1.5 pts @ 55 at Betfair
These are long odds for a player who is 4th in the European Tour's statistical rankings, 7th in Stroke Average, 7th in the Order Of Merit, and clear 1st for Scrambling. That last quality could come in very handy here on this reputedly tough course with small greens, and if it's windy it's reassuring to see he made 2nd place in the 2002 Qatar Masters, where it blew hard. All those stats obviously indicate what a good year so far it's been for Remesy, and his run of form is most impressive (he ranks 1st in Stanley's 8-week adjusted scoring table): Qatar this year started a run of 18th-11th-5th-4th-11th-MC-42nd-13th-27th-3rd-1st-28th. The blot is the MC (by two shots) at Troon last week but sometimes that is better than qualifying and struggling, and after all this has probably added 20-25 pts to his Betfair price; enough to chance it I feel.

Back Luke Donald 1.5 pts @ 42 at Betfair
The general concensus seems to be that the par threes will be key this week, but as they are not overly long (3 of the 4 being under 175 yards) it must mean that accuracy is of the utmost importance. Therefore plumping for Donald seems a good idea as he is a superb 6th in Par 3 Birdies on the US Tour (and 27th for Par Three Performance). He is also 22nd for driving accuracy there and 10th for GIR, so there will be few more accurate players here this week and over 40/1 seems a great price despite him also missing the cut last week. That was only by one shot, courtesy of a short par putt missed on his 36th green, and I am not worried at all by that; he was nicely above the field average for both DA & GIR. He had two top tens in three outings in the US before coming over early to prepare, and he should be spot on now to try and put in a top performance in his quest to qualify for the Ryder Cup.

Back Nick O'Hern 1.5 pts @ 40 at Betfair
Very rarely do I go for one of these non-winners, but his form really has been superb for a long time now and players do seem to be finding it easier and easier these days to keep their nerve and secure previously elusive victories. With O'Hern I'm thinking he will be especially determined this week as he was fuming about circumstances conspiring against him and leaving him shy of an Open place, and possibly his heart wasn't in the latter stages of his second round of the Scottish Open where he missed the cut a fortnight ago. He had entered that event with 13 top-20s from his last 17 European Tour events, culminating in consecutive finishes of 4th-3rd-2nd-10th - staggering numbers by any standard. Even his 4th round scores have been good: to secure his last 5 top-5s he shot 67-68-68-71-68 on the Sundays and, although everyone has been saying it for some time now with him, the breakthrough really does look to be coming. He is 3rd on the Scoring Average list and 8th in the Tour statistical rankings, where 9th-15th are Clarke, Casey, Bjorn, Immelman, Haeggman, Poulter & Westwood, and nigh-on 40/1 seems overly generous as we can always lay off in-running.