Matchup Picks

Tournament trades (1pt):

Marcus Fraser to beat Louis Oosthuizen -111 @ Stan James and Paddy Power
Ooshuizen may finally be showing some form outside his native South Africa, but he trails Fraser 5-0-0 h2h in all events this year. Seems good enough reason to oppose him in this matchup.

Marcus Fraser to beat Richard Green -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Green has not played since the Singapore Masters six weeks ago and though he has not missed a cut this year, he has not finished in the top-25 in any of his last five starts. Fraser has finished ahead of Green in three of their last four common events and looks better prepared for this event.

Nick O'Hern to beat Joachim Haeggman +100 @ Bet365
Would have had O'Hern as a selection had Paddy Power offered top-10 betting for this event - he finishes 6th-10th many more times than he finishes 1st-5th - but will side with him in the matchups instead. He may be a little rusty having not played for five weeks, but he did finish in the top-5 in three of his last five starts. He has also finished behind the Swede just once since the start of the 2003 season. With Haeggman's March form fading this month, O'Hern should win this matchup if playing as he should.
(also available at Centrebet, Intertops, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Nick O'Hern to beat Maarten Lafeber -111 @ Stan James
Beyond a 5th place finish in South Africa, Lafeber has had a best finish of 29th this year and that was in the weak Madeira Island Open. Barring rustiness, O'Hern should win this match with ease.

Final update: 1-3-0; -2.36pts

Fraser/Oosthuizen WON by 3
Fraser/Green LOST by 1
O'Hern/Haeggman LOST by 14
O'Hern/Lafeber LOST by 3

Called it wrong on O'Hern - he was obviously much more rusty than I thought. Almost broke even though, but a closing 66 by Green was enough to snatch victory away from Fraser.
 

European Tour

Tournament Trades (1.5 pts unless stated):

Bradley Dredge to beat Ricardo Gonzalez +100 @ William Hill & Easybets
Dredge is back to his fantastically consistent best of 2002 and has 5 top 15s in his last 6 events (36th in the other). As I've said on the spreads page, I don't think this week will be a good one for Gonzalez, who must be mentally tired and also pretty down after throwing it away last Sunday. There is no guarantee this course will suit his waywardness as much as the last two weeks either.

Bradley Dredge to beat Raphael Jacquelin -111 @ Centrebet
Since Jacquelin's lightning start to the season he has disappointed quite badly, notwithstanding one more 3rd place in Qatar. He has missed the cut in three of his last five events and that probably would've been 4 from 6 if he hadn't withdrawn from the Heineken after an opening 75. This is in stark contrast to the aforementioned record of Dredge and what clinches it for me is that even if Jacquelin finds some form, there is still every chance that Dredge will be there too.

Nick O'Hern to beat Thongchai Jaidee +100 @ Five Dimes [3 pts]
As I said on the spreads, Jaidee's record on in the last 2 years on UK, German or Spanish soil is shocking. No finishes better than tied 48th in 9 attempts with the latest just last week. Compare that with O'Hern who fires in top twenty after top twenty and has only missed a top thirty finish on 6 of his last 22 European Tour appearances. In all four events where these two both played in the last year Jaidee has failed to better O'Hern and tied with him just once.

Brett Rumford to beat Graeme McDowell -108 @ Five Dimes [3 pts]
Successfully opposed McDowell last week and see no reason not to again. The two good finishes he had recently are looking increasingly like another false dawn as I suggested they might and I have to take one of my outright fancies against him. Rumford has been nicely consistent this season so far and the head to head figures over the past twelve months kind of speak in his favour ... he leads 12-1 !!


Final Update: 0-4; Loss 9.41 pts

Dredge/Gonzalez: Dredge WD: LOST
Dredge/Jacquelin: Dredge WD: LOST
O'Hern/Jaidee LOST by 8
Rumford/McDowell LOST by 14

Dredge withdrew after round one, which was most annoying as the two I had him against missed the cut, O'Hern missed the cut and I, um, got Mr. McDowell slightly wrong! Well played to him for a great week and let's hope he can kick on and become a big player on tour now. Had a wedge on him for the Wales Open last year and could be doing the same again next month.