Spread Picks

Round One Trades

Buy Michael Campbell over Constantino Rocca 18H MB at 9 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 43, Profit 25.5 pts)

Buy Eduardo Romero over Constantino Rocca 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 31, Profit 18 pts)

This is a double bet opposition of Rocca with two players who could have a big week. Rocca is a part time player now and generally only comes out at a select few events, one of which being his own Open Championship. This year Rocca has played in 6 events, missing the cut 4 times and finishing outside the Top 40 in the other two. An argument is usually put forward when supporting a player past his best years that he "can still perform in his own country", a case normally used when Bernhard Langer comes back to play in Germany. However, with Rocca, this holds no substance as his record in Italy is a 59th and two missed cuts since 2000. His record previous to that was above average but then he was a top European player then. Campbell and Romero have fair if not
spectacular 2004 form. Ignore Campbell's US ventures, he just can't play there and his remaining form is three Top 20's, a 35th and a missed cut. Romero is going to be a massive earner on the Champions Tour when he qualifies for that by age soon, but he can still cut it on the European tour with a 2003 record of 5 Top 25 placings from 11 events played. This is his first event on tour this year after a 39th at Augusta and a play off defeat in the first round of the WGC to Darren Clarke

Sell Santiago Luna over Rob Rashell 18H MB at 1 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit -13.5 pts)

Luna was 13th last week and on the strength on that has been made a slight R1 favourite in this match up. His record previously though was poor for the season with a 14th at Madeira best along with 4 missed cuts and 3 events outside the Top 30. Rashell is an
American trying to succeed on our Tour rather than take the conventional way of starting in the lower league USA Tours. He started brightly here posting big finishes in Madeira (2nd) and Hong Kong (10th). A missed cut and near last in Spain and Portugal recently dampened the good start but 13th in Fuertaventura (tied with Luna) suggests he has got a bit of that form back. I think Rashell should be favourite so is worth a punt at a 1p point start.

Sell Sven Struver over Jean Van De Velde 18H MB at 0 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit 9.75 pts)

Van De Velde is on a big downward spiral and now needs invites to get into events. A long term injury meant he wasn't playing much in 02 or 03, and medical exemptions in a bid to let him retain his status failed in the early part of 04. A best placed 20th in Dubai not being enough to help him out. The fact though that he is infamous for the Open in 99' will no doubt get him the odd invite here and there and he may just produce the big result he needs one of these weeks. Struver though, is not in the same class when Jean does show any sort of form and shouldn't be favourite here. 2004 results are poor, a 9th early on in South Africa has been his highlight and a 32nd place in a sub standard event in South Africa the nearest he has got. In Europe he missed the cut in Seville with a 74 and 75 and Van De Velde will hopefully show enough tomorrow to beat him.

Round Two Trades 

Sell Santiago Luna over Rob Rashell 18H MB at 2 with Cantor Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 0, Profit 1.5 pts) **i had the price incorrectly entered as 1 when in fact it was 2**

As is the norm on a Friday, you usually only get to back a R1 match-up again if the bet was a loser and with a 3 wins from 4 record Thursday only the Luna/Rashell trade is open to offer again at a reasonable price. We are actually getting a point more on a match that early on was heading towards wiping out a good part of our profits from the early bets. Rashell, though, came back well and Luna fell back a little so possibly Rashell with have more positive vibes tonight even although he is 3 back of Luna.

Sell Thomas Levet over Marcus Fraser 18H MB at 1 with  IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit -16.75 pts)

Levet won by 3 yesterday, and is now priced slightly more than he was yesterday which is probably now worthy of a bet. Fraser, as we stated last week, seems to play better in Europe than in his homeland and has put up a few fair results here. Levet's record this year in Europe is mc/58/mc/74 (including the middle east events) which is poorer than Fraser's 24/30/10. Sell at 1.
 

Summary = 24.5pt profit.

Nothing really doing in the R3 offers so i can summarise early before they get going. A little annoyed by the fact Rashell was -6 for 10 holes in R2 only to collapse somewhat in the final 8 holes to tie the match, but apart from that it was a good week. Hopefully results in the US should have a similar outcome.

European Tour

Tournament Trade:

Sell Ricardo Gonzalez/Angel Cabrera 72H MB at 1 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts
I'm not having it that Gonzalez is the better of these two Argies. True, he is in the form of his life but that will not last forever and his recent efforts could easily start to tell on him, especially coming off a tournament he had virtually in his pocket. Stanley puts a very strong case for Cabrera on the Matchups page and it is indeed very possible that he will want to prove a friendly point this week. Getting a shot start is a bonus I'll gladly accept.
Result:
Gonzalez +1 (MC), Cabrera -14, MU 25, Profit 13 pts

Tournament Trade:

Buy Thongchai Jaidee FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts
The thinking here is that, yet again, his form will suffer as he moves onto the events away from his 'comfort zone' of Asia. It's becoming quite a trend now that he looks impressive in places like Malaysia, Taiwan, Dubai, Singapore etc. but fails to reproduce anything like that form when he hits European soil. His missed cut last week means that since the start of the 2002 season his finishing position makeup in all 9 of these events he contested would have been the maximum 50 and he looks vulnerable in the wet conditions this week.
Result:
Jaidee finished T28th with 11 others
MU 33.5, Loss 0.25 pts