Tipster: Stanley

Madeira Island Open

Matchup plays (1pt):

Paul Broadhurst to beat Diego Borrego -115 @ Five Dimes
Borrego may have some very impressive form here - top-25 in all four visits including a win in 2002 - but his form is desperate. Since last year's event, he as played 13 times and missed the cut in all but two events.

Andrew Oldcorn to beat Gareth Paddison -115 @ Five Dimes

This is a quirky course set at altitude on the side of a mountain; course experience is vital. Paddison has none and despite a year on the European Challenge Tour last season, he has had very little success on this continent - just one top-10 on that Tour last year and a missed cut in all four full European Tour events that he has played in. He is capable of much better, but should struggle to find it on this course. Siding with a player who still makes more cuts than not and has plenty of experience at Santo da Serra.

Henrik Stenson to beat Gareth Paddison -110 @ BetInternet

Stenson is another who makes a majority of cuts against much better fields - four of six this year - and has plenty of course form with the cut made in each of his four visits. Should be enough in his favour in this matchup.

Final update: 3-0-0; +3.00pts

Broadhurst/Borrego WON by 10

Oldcorn/Paddison WON by 2

Stenson/Paddison WON by 4

A nice sweep to cancel out the losses on the outrights and all were decided at the cut. Just as well as any score was possible in the high winds over the weekend.

Tipster: Shaker

Madeira Island Open

Matchup play (2 pts):

Andrew Oldcorn to beat Gareth Paddison -115 @ Five Dimes
Sorry to duplicate one of Stanley's selections but it stood out like a sore thumb to me even before I had time to read the left-hand side of this page! I saw absolutely nothing in Paddison's record to suggest he can get anywhere near contending this week and his prices this week seem based on his career-best performance in early February. That is the only thing of any note he's ever done in anything resembling professional golf (at least on the European or Challenge tours) that I can find and to pair him at a take-your-choice price versus Oldcorn seems a big mistake; the Scot has top 20s in two of his last three outings here, and also last time out in Qatar a fortnight ago, a tournament which was much, much stronger than this. 79% GIR there suggests his game is in good shape.
 

Oldcorn/Paddison WON by 2

Lucky that +5 was still good enough to win but not much more was expected of Paddison to be honest.