Ryder Cup

28.45 pt loss.....

Buy Total Aggregate of Halved Matches at 4.2 with Sporting Index for 2 pts.
...M/U 3, Loss 2.4 pts. A good few games looked by being halves but were then won on 18. No complaints, it was worth the risk.
You know the risk with this bet. If all 28 games are won then you lose 8.4 pts. The case for the buy though outweighs the sell by some way. In the last 3 Ryder Cups there have been 7, 5 and 5 halved games (admittedly though in 1993 there was only 1). More than this though my reason for suggesting this bet is from an interview Jesper Parnevik gave in one of the countless Sunday pull-outs from this week, He said that he wasn't able to share in the immediate celebration from the winning putt as he was playing Tiger Woods in the last match and didn't come in until some time afterwards.  His view was that once the match is won, the players on the course could just shake hands and walk in. If this was to be policy this year, and who is to say that it has not been agreed then the upside to this bet, especially if the match is one sided, is huge. Even if it either goes down to the wire or the players play out for their own personal pride and individual R/C record, 4.2 is still low on known averages.

Buy USA Points Supremacy at 1.4 with Cantor Sports for 2 pts.
...M/U -9, Loss 20.8 pts. USA just never got going, simple as that.
On fixed odds betting, at odds of 4/6 USA and 2/1 Europe, the value most definitely lies with the visitors. However, on the spreads I would argue that buying the points difference between the teams at a 1.4 handicap to the hosts is also value. The course will be set up to suit the hosts, especially the greens which will be more akin to what the hosts are used to than the likes of McGinley and Howell. Also, spread firms will usually price a market knowing that one side of a trade will get more business purely through who the majority would like to see win as opposed to that price being wrong. Here they know that punters may see the chance to get a start on their team and will therefore offer it at a poor price. I am sure that the spread firms will make a higher profit this week if the States win than if Europe do so will put up their initial prices as best they can to cover the risk.
(Note: using Cantor's exchange service you can buy at 1.25 but are subjected to a 5% commission rate which shouldn't adversely affect profits unless the States won by a fair margin which is unlikely.)

Day 1 Match Bet
Sell McGinley & Donald Win Index on the Friday Four-balls at 11.5 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts
....M/U 10, Profit 0.75 Pts, In the closest match of the day this one went all the way down 18 to give the States their first half point, us a small profit on this trade and got us off the mark in our bet on the ties.
Possibly the two best, or certainly two of the three best putters on the US team have been paired together on day 1 against one of the worst putters on the Euro team. For that reason alone, and you can throw in home advantage as well, Cink and Riley should be clear favourites over the European pair. You can either back them on a straight 10pt win, 3 pt per hole at 1, buy Cink/Riley at 13 or do the bet above. I think all in this one is the best value.

Day 3 Match Bet
Sell Lee Westwood Win Index on the Sunday Singles at 13 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts
...M/U 25, Loss 6 pts, Westwood won on the last to complete a poor punting week.
There is much debate over what will happen if the overall match finishes early. With this in mind it is best to let the "Ties" bet run with a chance there could be a few, the overall bet is down unless there is a major change in form but to compensate for this we may eat into the losses on that bet by opposing a player on a match that is far enough up the list to count. Stats show players who play 4 matches in a row struggle on the Sunday and Westwood is yet to have a rest. Perry has struggled in this event and possibly is not the player of 2003 but at the prices offered i would suggest Westwood should only be around 11.5 to 13 and not 13-14.5. Another small advantage at the price is if the tie is the result here by whatever reason then we still make a fair profit. For that reason it is better to oppose Westwood than back Perry.