Spread Picks

Tournament Trades

Buy S Hansen FP at 26 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U 8, Profit -13.5 pts)

Hansen so far this year has posted results of 2 Top 10's, 2 Top 25's and 3 max: 50 Make-Ups. He has been quoted too low by SS here on the belief that it is a very poor field. However, reports suggest that this new course is fairly wide open and therefore could turnout to be a putting contest. On all the facts that are researchable, i would have Hansen here at around 31. So to get long at 26 where you have running for you all the advantages that FP buying brings means we are on at a more than fair price. Hansen only clears this quote in 30% of his events so the value is with us on this bet.

Buy Miguel Angel Jimenez FP at 16 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U 30, Profit 10.5 pts)

Everyone is with Jimenez this week and in an attempt to compensate for this SS have came in with a fairly low quote. This is the sort of price reserved for Harrington and Clarke in Europe, and Els and Singh in the States. Even allowing for Miguel's form this year this price is an over-reaction. His results this year have been a mix of top 5's and missed cuts so 16 is too low considering this. Also, like the Hansen trade, Jimenez covers the quote less than 1 in 3 times.

Round One Trades

Buy Stephen Gallacher over Nick Dougherty 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit -14.25 pts)

Our old favourite, Dougherty, is once again, in my opinion over-rated by the layers. I have this around 8 so to get with Gallacher at 3 is a fair shout. Recent form sees Dougherty post a 23rd last week as his best return in a 9 event season so far, whereas Gallacher has two top 10's in his last 4 events and his stroke average is a good bit better than Dougherty's in the last 8 weeks.

Sell Robert Derksen over Soren Kjeldsen 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit -6.75 pts)

I have Kjeldsen as a slight favourite here so 4 seems quite big. Recent form is with Derksen, Top 20 in his last 3 events compared to Soren's mc/52/mc. I would argue though that as Kjeldsen is a better player. Stats show his scoring average is lower over 1 year and 3. His average results are 5 places better and his MC % is a full 10% lower. So if we accept that 4 is priced purely on current form over a few weeks and on no other information it is worth the risk to play it with a 4pt start.

Round Two Trades

Sell Robert Derksen over Soren Kjeldsen 18H MB at 4 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 17.25 Pts)

After a shocker in R1 on both tours, i expect to play up some of the losing bets again in R2. Gallacher, for some reason, is a higher price even although he lost, but Derksen is 4-7 again and yesterday's reasoning still applies

Summary - 6.75 pts

Poor week generally, with no obvious plays on the 18s over the weekend leaving us with just the two tournament bets to follow.

European Tour

Nothing doing for me at this stage in this event.