Volvo PGA Championship

Summary from Andy : Over the two tours this has been one of those weeks that everything just fell into place. They aren't all like that which makes it all the sweeter when they happen. A good profit on matches on both tours this week making up for such a downturn last week.  (18's = 15.38 pts, Tournament trades 8.5 pts)

Round Four Trades from Andy (+1.75 pts)

Sell Peter Lawrie over Sandy Lyle at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU -16, Profit 4.75 pts
Based on price, this just seem a little big. Lawrie has missed his last three cuts whereas Lyle as had a good run with a Top 40 at the British Masters. This should be a choice price.

Buy Anthony Wall over Chris Kelly at 5 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. MU 22, Profit 4.25 pts
Wall is a fairly low price considering Kelly's standing in the game. This has been a major achievement for Kelly to make the cut. In two previous events he has missed the cut by some way. Wall has been ok this season but although having done nothing special 5 is a very low price.

Sell Graeme McDowell over Nick O' Hern at 0 with Cantor Sport for 0.25 pts. MU 0
McDowell is being priced up these days on potential rather than results achieved, and in my opinion O' Hern is probably worthy of being favourite here by a couple of points.

Buy Paul Casey over Mads Vibe Hastrup at 10 with Cantor Sport for 0.25 pts. MU -19, Profit -7.25 pts
Just feel this price is too low. Casey hasn't shot the lights out on this event but his ability compared to his opponent just seems worthy of a price in the teens .

Round Two Trades from Andy (+14 pts)

Buy Carlos Rodiles over Andrew Coltart at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU 13, Profit 2.87 Pts.
Coltart shot 67 yesterday but he shot low at Forest Of Arden in R1 only to fall back over R2 to R4. Rodiles shot 74, 7 behind Coltart but he is a better player and is worth backing off of a small handicap.

Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over Colin Montgomerie at 3 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU -22, Profit 6.25 Pts.
Monty shot 70 yesterday but he is rated way behind Jimenez as he shot -7. Arguably on the top of their games Monty is still the equal of or even slightly better than Miguel. 3 is quite a big start to get with these two.

Buy Retief Goosen over M A Jimenez at 1.5 with at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU 0, Profit    -0.37 Pts.
Playing up yesterday's bet as Goosen played well, he just came up against Jimenez shooting really low.

Sell Adam Scott over Ben Curtis at 5 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU -16, Profit 5.25 Pts.
Playing up the 2nd biggest R1 loser as i feel that the one round does not prove that scott is back to his best. Curtis done well to come back to +1 from +3 so will hopefully do enough tomorrow to keep the FP bet going and contend in his match with Scott.

Round One Trades from Andy (-0.37 pts)

Buy Retief Goosen over M A Jimenez at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts. MU -19, Profit -5.12pts
Very big on Goosen this week and although Miguel has won two events this year, Goosen is still a far better all round player. Goosen has a strange course record, missed cuts in the last 3 years, he had two Top 10's the two previous years. Jimenez has the exact same record as Retief over the last 3 years of MC/MC/MC so 1.5 seems fair for Goosen.

Sell Trevor Immelman over Thomas Bjorn at 2 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts. MU -16, Profit 4.5 pts
Playing up Bjorn on his R1 match against last weeks SAP Open winner. We opposed Immelman in a MB last week under the reasoning that his record on European soil is not as good as his standing in the game suggests it should be. Accepting his brilliance last week over four rounds, it cannot be denied though that it needs a few more top performances to show he can be a regular performer on these shores. One top 10 in 2003 (admittedly at this event) and one so far in 04' is not world class form. Bjorn had 4 in 03'. This is his 3rd event on tour this year after starting out in the States so last weeks 18th is a fair start after 2 months off.

Sell Lee Westwood over Ben Curtis at 2 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts. MU 0, Profit 0.5 pts.
In the list of players I seem to oppose the most, Westwood is up there with Dougherty and Baddeley. Continually tipped as a winner to be, he has now gone 9 months since he had a Top 10 place in the two major tours. Curtis as pointed out in the Tournament trades section has performed ok these last few weeks and seems under estimated in this match-up especially when considering that at Wentworth Westwood is on the same run as Goosen and Jimenez of three consecutive missed cuts.

Sell Adam Scott over Ben Curtis at 4 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. MU 22, Profit -4.5 pts
Although we are big on Curtis as stated above this is more a play against Scott who has went backwards since winning at Sawgrass. Three missed cuts in a row culminated in a shocking R2 80 last weekend. 4 is too big a start considering these facts.

Buy Nick O' Hern over Nick Dougherty at 5 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. MU 22, Profit 4.25 pts.
Talking of Dougherty, this week he is paired with O' Hern. Dougherty recently has finishes of 3 missed cuts and a 51st last week. O' Hern has finished mc/5/mc so although not impressive, still better than Dougherty. 5 is about the limit to buy at, certainly no higher due to those missed cuts, but it is a fair price.

Tournament trades from Andy (8.5 pts Profit)

Sell Retief Goosen FP at 29 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. MU 12.5, Profit 8.25 pts
Sometimes, a quote just looks completely wrong and this is one of those times. Goosen has had by his standards a poor season. However, a 9th place last week in Germany will have given him a confidence boost. 5 Top 10's in the season so far doesn't suggest he is out of form but they have been mixed in with 3 missed cuts which is what the firms must be basing the quote on.

Sell Thomas Bjorn FP at 31 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. MU 18.5, Profit 6.25 pts
The forgotten man of golf, Bjorn seems to have done absolutely nothing this year. Last week an 18th place
was his best result since he went 1/3/2/4 round the turn of the year. 2nd last year in the Matchplay round this course, he, like Els, seems to perform better at the tail end of the year here than in May for this event. He does though have 3 Top 20's in the event and 31 is a bit high for such a talented player.

Sell Ben Curtis FP at 38 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts. MU 50, Profit -6 pts
Curtis showed some form round the course last year in the Matchplay beating Chad Campbell in the QF and taking Bjorn to the last hole. He shot 68 in R1 last week before falling away to 42nd. His two previous weeks on the PGA tour were both Top 40 finishes. 38 just seems to big on the quality in this field.

Tournament trades from Shaker (Profit -19.25 pts)

Sell Brian Davis FP at 36 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts: MU 50, Profit -7 pts
There is a dilemma here. Do we look at his Wentworth form, or look at his career form? Plenty of players find a good finish at a venue after many poor performances so I'll go with the facts of his overall record. Last season his average finishing position (discounting American events) for spread betting purposes was around 25, and even this year, after 3 consecutive poor finishes, it is around 27. And those three bad results, very possibly linked after becoming a Dad for the first time in April, have at least been progressive and I'm sure he's fully expectant of a better week again.

Buy Eduardo Romero/Angel Cabrera 72H MB at 0.75 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts: MU -12, Profit -6.37 pts
Cabrera's good run was abruptly halted last week despite many thinking he'd go very close, and I'm not sure he can be trusted here. The rough is reported to be up and I'd much rather be with the steady and straight play of Romero against the erratic, albeit occasionally brilliant, offerings that his great friend usually produces. Romero 2nd and 14th the last two years here, Cabrera 40th and MC.

Buy Paul Casey/Anders Hansen 72H MB at 0.75 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts: MU -11, Profit -5.88 pts
Not often you'll get the chance to back Casey at 'choice' against a player who, when looking at the bigger picture, is clearly inferior. I'm not disputing that Hansen has been in form (9th, 5th, 11th the last three and 7 top 15s from 9 events this season is mightily impressive) but I'd suggest it has to end soon. And despite his good record here, Casey still beat him by 9 shots last year ... and we musn't forget just how good Casey is. Hansen is top-priced 40/1 on the fixed odds whereas Casey is 25/1, that says it all and even then I'd still rather be with Casey.