Dubai Desert Classic

FINAL RESULT: 2-2; +1.32pts

Montgomerie 4th
Fasth 22nd
Fraser 51st
Els 1st

Despite his nickname, it is never easy with Els. Having played so well for the first two rounds, he started the weekend with a four-putt from 20-feet. He was taking this too easy and continued to do so right up until the penultimate hole when, one-shot behind Jimenez, he drove through the green on the par-4, but took very little time over his chip and fluffed it. Rather a dramatic eagle from Els and a three-putt from Jimenez at the last hole made this a fortuitous win. Monty continued to play well, but didn't hit his approach shots close enough in the final round to give him any chance of reaching the lead and he eventually finished three shots back.

Further outright play (total stake: 1.5pts)

Ernie Els to win 11/8 @ BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and GolfingGods
At least two of the outrights are in contention with Monty 4^th and Fasth 7^th at the cut, but they trail Jimenez by five and six shots respectively. It is not a big margin, but given that it is Fasth who has played the better golf of the two and that there are some rather good players on the leaderboard, it is unlikely that they will win from this position. Time to reassess the options at the halfway stage…

Every player has his price, no matter how short, and so has Els … and it is less than 11/8 to win this tournament from this position. He only started at 3/1 and now having hit 35 of greens in regulation, never had a three-putt and never had a bogey over the first two rounds, he is in prime position to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez whom he trails by 2 shots. This is not a big-money-winning play, but it should be profitable more times than not.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Colin Montgomerie to win 16/1 e.w. @ Tote
Monty's 5th place and career-low score in the U.S. of 64 in the Nissan Open was just a week too late to get him into the Accenture Matchplay Championship, but it puts him in with a real chance of now making the Masters and the rest of the WGC events this year. Having already started the year with finishes of 2nd and 11th, the new year has clearly brought a new outlook and form and so having already won this event in 1996, he could be one to profit from others tiredness from transatlantic travel.

Niclas Fasth to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
In terms of form, Fasth must surely be a strong contender. Not only did he win the New Zealand Open three weeks ago, but finished 4th in the Malaysian Open. So having struggled with his game for the last two seasons while trying to compete more on the PGA Tour, he is back in the top-100 of the World Rankings and can also aim for the more prestigious events this year. It is also worth noting that the last time that he played in this event (2002), he finished 2nd. He could once again become a very significant player on this Tour.

Marcus Fraser to finish in the top-five 30/1 @ GolfingGods
With two wins on the Challenge Tour and a win in a co-sanctioned event on the main Tour in 2003, it looked as though Fraser would become a significant player. But his accuracy off the tee let him down last year as he struggled for consistency. However, he still managed 2 top-5 finishes in 27 European Tour-sanctioned events and has started this year with much more accurate driving and so his greens in regulation stats are significantly higher than last year. He already has one top-5 finish from four starts and was inside the top-5 for much of the weekend in the New Zealand Open as well. So having played well on his debut last year around the Emirates course - in the top-15 until the final few holes - these look generous odds for such a promising player. * Sportingbet/Sporting Odds offer 150/1 e.w. at the time of writing *