Dubai Desert Classic

(Summary: After a poor first two days, the double play on Jaidee and a poor weekend by Bjorn meant we came out of the first event on this tour this year with a profit. Hopefully, results in Miami will go our way too and we will obtain a good week from what started out a potentially bad week.) Profit 4.25 pts

Spread plays

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Pre Round Three Trades

Buy Thongchai Jaidee at 37 with Spreadex  MU 50, Profit 6.5 Pts
Buy Anders Hansen at 33 with Spreadex  MU 34, Profit 0.5 pts
This is a trading attempt to soften the position we are currently at. I have Hansen now as round about 34/35 so although he could conceivably have a great weekend and win us money, the averages suggest that closing at 33 and taking a small win would pay in the long term. With Jaidee, I think with the quantity of field that have made the cut and his general position in the field, he is quite good value at 37 as a subsequent buy (37-40 elsewhere). This gives us a nett 1pt buy at 33 which is good value. This of course could backfire but I believe we are trading at good prices and are therefore in a slightly stronger position by placing these trades than if we just let things run.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Nothing good to report really, you sometimes think someone is conspiring against you when the one buy who could miss the cut chips in at 18 for eagle to make the cut by 2 strokes. Other than that, Bjorn has performed well, Westwood too and our position looks difficult.)

Buy Thomas Bjorn at 21 with IG Sport  MU 25, Profit 2 pts
I have this price just a couple of points too low. Bjorn shot 69 in R1 and is T6, but with an afternoon tee time and a chance if the wind gets up as the day goes on that he may need to shoot a good couple of points under par again just to stay in the Top 10/15 of this field.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Average start, strangely the afternoon players got the best of the weather and unfortunately Romero did not take any advantage. On the plus side Hansen played well in the morning to shoot -2. Jaidee is level with an afternoon tee time tomorrow and a lot of our success this week may revolve round how he does.)

Buy Lee Westwood at 25 with Spreadex  MU 7, Loss 9 pts
Lee has been 17th, 38th and 12th in his last three visits here but I still feel his price in relation to what he achieves is too low. An unsuccessful foray into the PGA tour for the last three weeks resulted in a couple of 50 M/Us in strokeplay events then a 2nd round exit at the WGC. 

Buy Thongchai Jaidee at 29 with Spreadex  MU 50, Profit 10.5 Pts
Jaidee cost us dear last time out, I think that may have been the first FP buy that has gone to win since starting posting plays here so hopefully he won't achieve an unfortunate double.  It could be argued Jaidee is a far better proposition on his own tour but in Dubai he has a good record. 5th and 9th the last two years although 27th and 28th in previous years. At the price I think there is a little value as taking note of Jaidee's full European Tour record rather than just course and 2005 form and that would suggest he should be around 30/31

Sell Eduardo Romero at 36 with Spreadex  MU 50, Loss 7 pts
The cat is now a senior tour player but he still has the game to perform on the big tours as proven by a 7/4 record in beating this quote in 04'. Course form is average with all cuts made but a best finish of 20th.  True price for Romero is possibly a little lower than this, nearer 31/32

Sell Anders Hansen at 35.5 (spread free) with Spreadex  MU 34, Profit 0.75 pts
Hansen's form is even poorer here with 2 missed cuts from 5 and the remaining finishes having a best position of 12th. 2005 form is better though with two 21st's and a 14th in co-sanctioned events with his only blip a mc at the Heineken Classic. A 2nd late in 04' in Madrid is also a positive. With the added attraction of a spread free quote, this makes Hansen good value.