Daily Telegraph Dunlop Masters

Finishing Positions (0.5 Pt Stakes)

Loss 0.5 Pts.

(Final Summary: Arguably, if we only traded at R1 and not in running we would have made over 30 points but I feel it is just a set of circumstances and that every price taken was value. Too many players on Sunday either made a big run in better conditions or stayed in the Top 5 as they had done all week. Hopefully the opposite will happen in Texas and it will turn out a successful week.)

Pre Round Three Trades. (Summary: A strange situation where we have opposition of 4 players in the Top 5 but should still come out on top thanks to the others. However, it wouldn't take much to take us down to a loss or for that matter bring us a large profit. It all depends on R4 scoring and rather than play any more I think we will let this lot run and see where they finish.)

Buy Stephen Dodd at 31 with IG Sport M/U 13, Loss 9 Pts

Buy Nick O' Hern at 37 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 6.5 Pts

Buy Graeme McDowell at 35 with Spreadex M/U 18, Loss 8.5 Pts

Buy Simon Khan at 35 with Spreadex M/U 6, Loss 14.5 Pts

Buy Michael Campbell at 14.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex M/U 4, Loss 5.25 Pts
Five more buys on players where the weather and the high cut line of 77 players means that buying is value at these prices offered. We now have a fair number of players in the 2nd half of the leaderboard and we could do with a good number of them finishing 50th or worse. O' Hern is +6, McDowell +5, Khan +4 and Dodd +3 so they need to really shoot low to contend so prices in the high 30's are value. Campbell has played well this week but he is prone to putting in a big score and if that happens this weekend 14.5 will easily be covered. 

Pre Round Two Trades. (Summary: Well, a +7 cut meant that even Raphael Jacquelin who shot 79/73 nearly made it. Of our 11 players only two leave (Havret the other) but we have a few well down the leaderboard. Westwood is +7, Little +6, Orr +6, Gallacher +5, and Monty +3. At the top end though, Davis and Howell have kept their positions, Bjorn moved forward with the best round of the week and Cabrera struggled but is around his R2 quote position.)

Buy Brian Davis at 16 with IG Sport M/U 2.5, Loss 6.75 Pts

Buy David Howell at 14 with IG Sport M/U 2.5, Loss 5.75 Pts

Buy Angel Cabrera at 15 with IG Sport M/U 33, Profit 9 Pts
All these players are quoted low considering we have three rounds to go, the leaders are only 5 shots ahead of those on the cut line and that the weather is expected to be troublesome for the players tomorrow. At these prices we should buy and hope to be in a very strong position after R2.

Pre Round One Trades. (Summary: Not a bad day with 4 of our buys well over par and in the case of Havret, out of it. Others are in the mix though and it would make our week easier on these players if the likes of Jacquelin, Orr and Westwood don't get into the weekend with good scores tomorrow.)

Buy Colin Montgomerie at 23.9 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 27, Profit 1.45 Pts
31st in China two weeks ago was a poor end to a good run where Monty had 5 Top 6's in a row. However, we have been finding some success recently by using 2004 European form to oppose players doing well in completely different surroundings. With Monty we have a 16 event season in 04' with 6 Top 20's and an average FP of over 30. That, coupled with a very strong field this week suggests Monty, even with good course form, should be 24-27.

Buy Thomas Bjorn at 25.7 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 1, Loss 12.35 Pts
Never out the Top 20 in three visits here, his course credentials are only beaten by Clarke and Monty. His recent record includes two 3rd's in China and a high placing at Augusta after R3 which unfortunately resulted in a last round 81. With most of the big Euro players here bar Els and Goosen I would suggest this may be the week Bjorn fails to keep his Top 20 record up.

Buy Gary Orr at 36 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 7 Pts
In 8 events played on the course Orr has an average of around the price we can buy at this week. His current form consists of an 8th in Malaysia, a 2nd in Madeira and a 10th last week in Italy. Strangely though, those 3 events span 3 months. In 30 events previous to this run, Orr had only one Top 20 so it would be fair to say that although he is on a purple patch the long term stats suggest that 36 is a very good price in this top class field.

Buy Raphael Jacquelin at 30 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 9.5 Pts
This week we seem to be opposing players with excellent course form but I feel that this has been factored into the price by just a little bit too much. Jacquelin is an example of this, with 4 Top 20's in 5 attempts here he certainly has a liking for the course. Also, Jacquelin has great current form with an 8th in Spain, 2nd in Indonesia and an 8th in Qatar but I am prepared to take the risk involved that Jacquelin should be just a little higher than he is.

Buy Gregory Havret at 35 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 7.5 Pts
Finally a player with moderate course form. 30th, 10th and 2 missed cuts is more encouraging for opposing a player and Havret has continued a trend this year by either playing really well or finishing well down the field or missing the cut. It is now 12 events since Havret finished higher than 21st if he made the weekend. On all known stats and a strong field 35 is value.

Buy Lee Westwood at 28 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 11 Pts
Another week where Westwood seems a bit low so its worth playing his FP again. He has a mixed record here with a 42nd, 36th and a MC mixed in with a 5th, 4th and 12th. Recently though Westwood has struggled quite badly in the States with a 22nd at Sawgrass easily the best of a poor season over there. There is no guarantee that a change of scenery will get his putter working again and it hasn't been now for some time.

Buy Stephen Gallacher at 37.9 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 47, Profit 4.32 Pts
An 82 on Sunday sums up Gallacher's recent form. A 21st in Spain is easily his best return this season with 6 maximum 50 M/U's to accompany it. At 38 approx, even although it is quite high, it seems value considering this is a far better field than anything he has failed in previously.

Buy Stuart Little at 38.8 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 5.32 Pts
Last bet pre start on Little who has performed admirably recently with three Top 20's in a row but take them away and look at his long term stats and under 40 in a strong field has to be traded. Two missed cuts on the course sway the argument.