European Open

Bets: 6  Wins:  3  Losses:  3  Profit/Loss = +22.75 Pts. Another week where weather dictated a lot of players' outcomes. It worked out ok for us with the losses minimal and the profits large with some of the June losses returned. Apologies for no PGA bets this week but nothing appealed before R1 and I was unavailable for R2. After that it seemed best to just watch this event from a strong position.

Pre Round Two Trades. (Note Closing bet below)

Buy Trevor Immelman FP at 14 with IG Sport M/U 9, Loss 2.5 Pts

Buy Paul Lawrie FP at 32 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 9 Pts.

Buy Michael Campbell FP at 34 with Spreadex M/U 27, Loss 3.5 Pts
There seemed a definite AM/PM bias today so we will play up 3 players who may have the worse of the conditions tomorrow. We will also close one player (Harrington) who probably wouldn't need to perform much better than two under par to get into the weekend. Immelman leads but I would be surprised if his price is lower than 14 tomorrow night. Lawrie is T22 and Campbell T55 and have afternoon tee times where they could easily, especially Campbell, fall out of the picture. With 21 points profit banked we have a little leeway to play through the rest of this event and these 3 players may have to play particularly well tomorrow just to keep their current position in the field. 


Pre Round One Trades.

Buy Richard Sterne FP at 33 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 8.5 Pts (Withdrew after 12 holes of R1 when +8)
Sterne hasn't failed to beat 33 in the last 7 events but I feel IG have over-estimated Sterne's chances in a very good field. Sporting have since agreed going a few points higher.

Buy Retief Goosen FP at 18 with Sporting Index M/U 15.5, Loss 1.25 Pts

Buy Padraig Harrington FP at 20 with Sporting Index **Close at 45** Profit 12.5 Pts
No particular reason to oppose these two favourites other than price and an expectation of some really poor weather. Rain is expected for the next seven days and it is also expected to be quite windy This can affect scoring somewhat and if these two players were to get the worst of it they would do really well to beat their respective quotes which are low in a very good field. Over the years their average FP's on this tour are higher than what they are being quoted at today and this event will be in the top 25% or so of field quality of those they have played in that time.