German Masters

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; 4.50pts

Cabrera 9th
Casey 7th
Fasth 12th

Very disappointing not to have anything from this event. All three players held the lead at some stage during the third round and there was a point at which they were all in the top-3 together. A late collapse by Casey in particular and no momentum in the final round and this was the result: as good as three missed cuts.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Angel Cabrera to win 22/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Basing this play primarily on Cabrera's European form. In his last seven starts in Europe, he has won once and finished in the top-5 four times. On the last occasion, he failed to do so, but had held the 1st round lead only to slip back to 11th. He has even had the same result in this event - leading after one round and finishing 11th overall - in 2000 and while this has otherwise not been his best course, the odds are ample compensation.

Paul Casey to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Victor Chandler
There has been plenty of evidence in the past month that he has been approaching his former self and this finally showed itself over four rounds last week when, but for a late bogey he could have won the European Masters. He did hold a share of the lead with three holes to play. So, having a good record on this course - 3rd in 2002 and 6th in 2004 - and having already won this year despite his previous loss of confidence, he looks good value again at such odds.

Niclas Fasth to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Fasth is a player to back in Germany. Not only did he win the Deutsche Bank event in July, but he has four top-5 finishes in his last five starts in this country. And his one failing - 38th in this event last year - was his highest finish in the last five months of 2004 and was sandwiched between consecutive missed cuts before and after that event. To finish 38th was an impressive achievement given such a complete loss of form. He had finished 3rd on this course the previous year and with a 4th place finish last time out - in Germany, of course - this is the place to side with Fasth.