BMW International Open

Summary: Bets 10, Wins 1, Losses 9. Loss 61.27 Pts. This week has been a disaster just like the previous two weeks. With our 7 Friday night plays averaging 66 in R3 we have actually came out of this week a lot better than I thought we would at one point on Saturday. Still, we have halved the profits made up over 7 months in the space of three weeks.

Round Three Trades.

Buy Joakim Haeggman Finishing Position at 36 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 50, Profit 7 Pts
Buy Miguel Angel Jimenez Finishing Position at 33 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 22.5, Loss 5.25 Pts
Buy David Lynn Finishing Position at 38 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 26.5, Loss 5.75 Pts
Buy Peter Hedblom Finishing Position at 41 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 32.5, Loss 4.25 Pts
Buy Raphael Jacquelin Finishing Position at 38.5 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 9.5, Loss 14.5 Pts
Buy Nick Dougherty Finishing Position at 38 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 32.5, Loss 2.75 Pts
Buy Niclas Fasth Finishing Position at 34 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 4.5, Loss 14.5 Pts
Update: Since posting these bets, the leaderboard has changed and now only 70 players are in the weekend with the amateur player i noticed earlier missing. That changes the value we have in that 13 less players are in the weekend but the prices are still good (just not as good)

Round Two Trades.

Buy John Daly Finishing Position at 26 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 2.5, Loss 11.75 Pts
Round One trades didn't work out for us with both opposed players winning by 4 strokes. No R2 trades look worthy of a recommendation although supporting Choi again, albeit against Langer was close, but one bet that does appeal is to continue the opposition to Daly. The reasons are detailed below in general but of course it is always about price and Daly should really be higher than 26. With an afternoon tee time he could be a little behind the quoted price as he tees off.

Round One Trades.

Sell John Daly over Nick Faldo 18H MB at 4.9 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 4.27 Pts

I have been looking for ways at opposing Daly this week as I feel that too much emphasis has been placed on the course set up and Daly's record round it (and Germany generally) rather than more up to date form. His FP quote was a possibility but this is more value albeit more volatile. It is very easy to make a case for Daly in this match on known course form, but on current form it isn't as cut and dried. Daly finished 15th at the Open and then 3rd in Germany the week after. Since then he has thrown in 4 high rounds (over 73) in his last 12 rounds and that suggests that in a one off match over 18 holes the 4.9 pt start Faldo is given is value.

Sell Ian Poulter over K J Choi 18H MB at 1 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5.25 Pts
One of the marquee 3 balls in the afternoon involves this match and we arguably have a false favourite in Poulter. Choi has a good record on European soil with a win and 4 further Top 25's in 7 events over 3 seasons including a 9th in the aforementioned German event in which Daly was 3rd. Poulter, meanwhile, has missed 2 cuts on this course and his 2005 record is sparse with only two Top 10's all season. All in all, Sporting's 1.5 choice price is probably nearer the mark.