KLM Open

Summary : 6 wins 0 losses +5.70 Points (After 5% Commission)

The performance in the Betfair category thus far has been very disappointing and quite frankly the strategy of picking players that are a bigger price on Betfair compared to the bookmakers has not been working. Conclusions to draw are that the layers on Betfair are more clued up than the bookmakers when assessing a players true odds making the backers life very difficult. I'm not happy to continue losing points under this type of strategy.

So the question must be asked how do we turn the current loss into a profit ?

A more high risk strategy that has been under consideration is to lay players from the outset in the hope that they can be either written off at an early stage or backed to flatten off the liability as the tournament progresses. The upside is that the chance of a small profit each week is high, but if laying a winner then the loss can be high. Back with the lays on Tuesday evening.

Round 3 Update
The only dangers remaining to our 6 lays are realistically Markus Brier who lies 3 shots off the lead and Andrew Oldcorn 5 shots. I am happy to let these ride in the 4th round.

Round 2 Update
Gregory Havret missed the cut, so that's 1 point banked. Of those that made the cut Anders Hansen sneaked in by 1 stroke but is 12 off the lead, Jose Manuel Lara is 10 off the lead. The two dangers from the lays so far are Markus Brier who is 3 strokes off the lead and Raymond Russell who is 5 shots off the lead, I see no reason to get nervous just yet though.

Lay Andrew Oldcorn to win 1 Point @ 42.0 ---> Matched
Oldcorn lies 4 strokes off the lead and will be celebrating making his 2nd consecutive cut, having missed 7 prior to that. He was the surprise winner of the 2001 PGA Championship but that still is his only success on Tour in over 20 years.

Round 1 Update
Both Anders Hansen and Gregory Havret carded over par rounds and trail the leaders by 5 and 7 shots respectively, no lay off required just yet on these players. Jamie Donaldson was one of the many non runners in this event.

Lay Markus Brier to win 1 Point @ 38.0 ---> Matched
Brier lies 1 stroke behind the leaders and but for a double bogey on the 17th would have been leading. Grounds for laying him are that before this he has missed the cut in his last two tournaments and also has never been a main tour winner.

Lay Raymond Russell to win 1 Point @ 50.0 ---> Matched
Last tour win stretches back to 1996, and came here in very poor form missing his last 6 consecutive cuts. Only 1 stroke behind the leader but putted like "god" with only 1.33 putts GIR and 22 putts in total, surely that vein of putting form can't continue.

Lay Jose Manuel Lara to win 1 Point @ 44.0 ---> Matched
Ended a streak of 3 consecutive missed cuts by finishing an excellent 2nd in the Wales Open last week, however he only posted a par round here and is 4 strokes behind the leaders. Last win of any description dates back to 1998 and on balance at the odds is worth taking on.

Pre-Tournament
Lay Anders Hansen to win 1 Point @ 24.0 ---> Matched
One of the market leaders here, but has 2 missed cuts in his last 3 starts and never finished close on this course. Only tour win was back in 2002 PGA Championship, others are preferred of the market leaders although this is a weak field.

Lay Gregory Havret to win 1 Point @ 36.0 ---> Matched
Simlar to Hansen his only tour win dates back to the 2001 Italian Open, although he was beaten in a play off for the South African Open earlier in the year. That heralded excellent performances away from Europe but tournaments on this continent tell a different story with 4 missed cuts out of 5 tournaments. In both starts at Hilversum he has missed the cut.

Lay Jamie Donaldson to win 1 Point @ 34.0 ---> Void
Playing this year on a medical extension after back problems in 2004. Last wins were on the Challenge Tour back in 2001. 3 missed cuts in his last 5 tournaments but is a shorter price in the betting because of his 4th place around here two years ago.