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Finishing
Positions (0.5 Pt Stakes) Bets: 11
Wins: 6 Losses: 5 Profit/Loss = -11.75 Pts.
Basically the losses were higher than the profits and too many
players finished Top 10. Possibly we will get out of the week ok
if Campbell and Appleby were to struggle in the Booz Allen.
Pre Round Four Trades
Buy Darren Fichardt at 35 with
Spreadex
M/U 42.5, Profit 3.75 Pts
One more play on this event where only one price stands out and
that is Fichardt. He has been out of form recently and T35
doesn't suggest to me he has regained any. Like all R4 bets
where the player is halfway in the field, the spread difference
from what he could finish at is quite wide. With 82 players in
the event, albeit 10 of them out of it now, there is a better
upside even at 35 than there is a downside.
Pre Round Three Trades
Buy Pierre Fulke at 32 with
Sporting Index M/U 12, Loss 10 Pts
Fulke is a bit of a part time player these days and at 32 is a
bit of value when we have an 82 man field going into the weekend
and he is currently placed just below his price.
Buy Anders Hansen at 43 with
Spreadex
M/U 46, Profit 1.5 Pts
Hansen is +4 which is currently T68 but with 34 players either
tied or within two shots of him he has a lot of competition
against him to not be one of the 32 players who M/U at 50. He
should arguably be higher even although there is a 50 ceiling so
we should trade him tonight and see where we stand tomorrow.
Buy Peter Senior at 22 with
Spreadex
M/U 7.5 Loss 7.25 Pts
Buy Alistair Forsyth at 22 with
Spreadex
M/U 22.5, Profit 0.25 Pts
Forsyth and Senior are two players who are currently T12 on -3
but will go out later in the day and if weather conditions were
to repeat then the earlier players may have a distinct advantage
on the later starters.
Buy Bradley Dredge at 36.5 (Spread Free) with
Spreadex
M/U 27.5, Loss 4.5 Pts
Dredge is one of the better players in this event but as yet has
struggled his way round the course. Currently T61 with a few
shots to catch up, he would have to improve somewhat to beat his
current quote. That isn't to say he won't but more often than
not he wouldn't.
Pre Round Two Trades
Buy Paul Broadhurst at 18 with
Spreadex
M/U 3, Loss 7.5 Pts
Buy Robert Jan Derksen at 22 with
Spreadex
M/U 35.5, Profit 6.75 Pts
Buy Gary Orr at 38.5 (Spread Free) with
Spreadex
M/U 50, Profit 5.75 Pts
Buy Jean Francois Lucquin at 30 with
Spreadex
M/U 50, Profit 10 Pts
Playing three lower priced buys and Orr, who is a bit low
considering his position in a field where there is a spread of 6
shots covering 99 players.
Pre Round One Trades
Buy Maarten Lafeber at 25.5 with
Spreadex
M/U 4.5, Loss 11.5 Pts
Going to go against Stanley's outright tip but of course as
always it is purely on price. Lafeber is favourite here for a
number of reasons, the main though seems to be one of
nationality and if recent events in Ireland and Wales prove
anything, having home advantage can be a real disadvantage. Yes,
he won here in 03' but he did MC a year later. His general form
in Holland reads as follows: 9 events played, 4 missed cuts and
only two Top 25's. His average FP in these events is a full 10
pts higher than what we can trade at today. |
