Mallorca Classic

FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +8.25pts

Olazabal 1st
Khan 21st
Lawrie 21st

An easy 5-shot win for Olazabal and it should help him make a deserved return to the Ryder Cup team next year. As for the rest, Khan was a particular disappointment having started the weekend in 4th place.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Jose Maria Olazabal to win 12/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Victor Chandler, William Hill, BlueSq and BetDirect
A little shorter than I would have liked given his failings to win the BellSouth Classic in April, but on this Tour and in Spain in particular, he can be relied upon to be in contention more often than not. He has played in eight events in Europe this year and finished in the top-25 in all but one of them and in the top-3 in two of his last four. In Spain, he has finished outside the top-20 only twice in his last fourteen starts and it is notable that it is in this event that he has performed better than elsewhere, finishing 2nd and 10th in the last two years. So with such a weak field, he does look the most likely to win if Garcia falters and if not, he is better than 3/1 to finish in the top-five.

Simon Khan to win 28/1 e.w. @ Coral
Khan disappointed last week in Madrid, though it was largely the result of being out of contention after two rounds that turned a top-25 finish into 52nd place. But, like Olazabal, his excellent form in Spain remains and particularly on this course. While he has finished in the top-10 of the Open de Espana twice in the last three years, he has finished 5th and 2nd on this course in the last two years. And it cannot be said that he was in good form at the time: his previous top-20 finish had been ten weeks beforehand last year and in 2003 he had failed to reach the weekend in any of his last six events. This is clearly a course that suits and he did hole the lead after the 2nd and 3rd rounds last year, but was paired with Sergio Garcia in the final group on Sunday. Faced with such pressure and support from the home crowd, it is little wonder that he finished 2nd. Provided he can avoid such a draw this year, he may go one better.

Paul Lawrie to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, BetDirect and Coral
Another with a very good record in Spain and on this course in particular, which raises another question mark against his label of being only a 'bad weather' player. Last year, his best finish all year had been 36th, but he still finished 11th on this course, shooting no worse than 70 each day. He has finished in the top-12 in five of seven starts in Spain over the last three years despite poor form and this was the country of his first Tour victory, the Catalan Open in 1996. So with such form in the Iberian Peninsula - he was 2nd in the Estoril Open de Portugal in April - he should go close again this year as his form is so much better: he shot 20-under-par and finished 2nd in Madrid last week.